07/20/2015 10:21PM

Mohawk: Tuesday 7/21 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

2,6 / 3,5,7,10 / 1,5 / 2,3,5,9 = $64

 

LATE PICK 4: 3,4 / 6,8 / 1,5,9 / 3,5,7 = $36

MEET STATS: 176 - 581 / $1013.20  BEST BETS: 22 - 52 / $77.70

SPOT PLAYS: 7 - 52 / $57.30

Best Bet: SEAWIND KERRY (2nd)

Spot Play: FOCUS POWER (10th)

Race 1

(2) DANCERS TOUCH  is a full brother to two winners, impressed in his one qualifier and meets a group that mostly seem averse to winning; top call despite facing some elders. (1) GRONK always seems to have form that stands out in this class; always gets bet and never wins. He figures, but what price would you take? (3) MYLITTLESTARSHINE raced well last time but was simply out-trotted to the wire. She looks like one of the better ones in here.

Race 2

(2) SEAWIND KERRY was called to win here last week at a huge price and looked like she might just pull it off turning home, but she tired late. Trainer Brealey has obviously figured this one out; top call at a much shorter price. (4) RIGHTLY SAID came in from Quebec undefeated, took a crazy amount of money at the windows then had a horrific trip. She can improve greatly here with a better steer. (9) NINETYNINE raced decently in her Mohawk debut and is one to consider at a square price here.

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Race 3

(5) INTENDED STYLE looked beat last week right up until the final stride but somehow gutted out a win by making up a couple of lengths in a hurry at the end of his mile; he is too sharp to go against right now. (3) VEGAS ROCKS was just nailed by the choice late in another sharp effort. He is the main threat again. (9) AMERICAN PAPARAZZI class drops and will take lots of action at the windows, but he may not be able to work out the right trip from out there.

Race 4

(2) SABINE PASS showed improvement 2nd time out and has had good late speed in both starts. A covered trip might get him home here. (6) NEW MIRACLE, 0-11 so far, came closest last week and now comes back in 7 days. He’s a contender but may be over bet. (7) SPORTS COLOGNE finished fast last time and has been showing signs of improvement. (10) IM A GIFT is an interesting entry here as a trotting-bred colt debuting on the pace. His qualifier was good enough that if he drew better he would have been placed higher here.

Race 5

(7) WEB CAM took a new life’s mark here two starts back then traveled to Ottawa for some easy pickings. He should be able to float out for position then launch a second-half assualt. (10) ROCK ME AMASTREOS dropped and tried to take his field coast-to-coast but got no breathers. A similar try is likely here and he is dangerous again. (3) WASHINGTON HANOVER was understandably dull last time after missing 5 weeks and now returns in 7 days with a positive driver change; consider at a price.

Race 6

(5) LOOKSLIKEACHPNDALE raced well last time but encountered a very sharp opponent. He looks best here. (1) HILLSONATOR already owns a mark of 1:56 4/5 taken in his second start. If the well-bred gelding stays flat here he looks like the main threat. (9) STEEL RESERVE finished behind the choice last time and looks best of the rest.

Race 7

Both (3) LIBRADO HANOVER and (9) MULLET BLUE CHIP are consigned to the mixed sale at the Meadowlands on August 2. Expect both to be going all out to get another win on their cards; slight nod to the former. (2) WILDCAT LIGHTNING was simply too far back early last time but is obviously one of the main players here, especially with the post relief he gets.

Race 8

(3) HOMEN DRY, despite coming off a vet scratch, looks best here even if not racing at 100%. (4) WIZARD OF OSNEY has faced mostly better recently and should be heard from. Keep in mind he moves up on an off track if that situation arises. (10) TEQUILA HAZE has raced well twice in a row and can share here despite leaving from the worst post.

Race 9

(8) CHEYENNE REIDER does his best work from outer posts as his 53 4/5 back half last week shows. Only a really bad flow stops him here. (6) IDEAL SHADOW moved up out of his comfort zone last week and has been one of the top dogs in this class for weeks; using. (4) BEACH HERO didn’t get his desired trip last week. He is far more dangerous on the lead or out of the pocket.

Race 10

(9) FOCUS POWER tried it on the front two back with A Mac driving and was passed only by one that repeated in fantastic time and would likely dust this group. Expect a big front-end try here. (1) REAL RAYE moves inside after showing little in two starts from the 10-hole and Waples might just trip this one out; beware. (5) ALASKAN SEELSTER closed well at the end of a rapid mile and could upset these if kept closer early.

Race 11

(5) CROWN ISLE has been over-driven two weeks straight. A change in tactics is predicted here and he could replicate his June 16 win if taken back early. (3) BOLERO TRISCO vaulted up off cover late but the winner was already long gone. He is a sharp contender. (7) F TWENTY TWO was claimed out of two good efforts out of town and certainly has been competitive here before; use on late pick 4 tickets. (4) S K CROSBY rolled past winded early leaders late to register a huge upset. He was the beneficiary of a perfect set up that time; minor share predicted. (6) VAL AMERICA almost always gets a check. Use him on the bottom rungs of your vertical bets.