06/27/2016 11:26AM

Mohawk: Tuesday 6/28 Analysis


Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


PICK 5: 4,5,9/2,4/3,5,7,8,9,10/1,3,5,6,7/6 = $36

EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,5,6,7/6/1,4,6/2,3,5,9 = $60

LATE PICK 4: 2,3,5,9/1,9/2,6,7,9/1,4,8 = $72

MEET STATS: 158 - 490 / $863.00  BEST BETS: 28 - 46 / $91.60

SPOT PLAYS: 8 - 45 / $44.50

Best Bet: LITTLE RED CHEV (5th)

Spot Play: STUCK IN MY SPANKS (2nd)

Race 1

(4) ROYAL CHARM squandered a sure win last week when she broke while on a clear lead coming down the lane. She can make amends here if she behaves. (9) PENNIES FROM ABOVE showed little in a Sires stake south of the border last time but closed with an eye-catching rush here two back. She can win this if she is within close enough range as the field turns for home. (5) DOTTIE has raced decently enough vs. better to suggest that she should be one of the main players here. (2) MR MONTGOMERY brings a solid record in from out of town and he isn't out of this but he will need to shave a few seconds off his time to beat these.

Race 2

(2) STUCK IN MY SPANKS, bought for only $3,500 at Harrisburg, may turn out to be a bargain based on the speed she showed in her late qualifier and she is heavily-staked considering her bargain basement purchase price; top call. (4) SOHO HANOVER is a full-brother to Superstar Hanover (7 wins, $517 K, 1:53 2/5 F) and Stanchion Hanover (7 wins, $66K, 155 4/5 F). He looks ready to roll for this debut race. (7) ADVENTURE AHEAD is a full-brother to three winners that have raced including Tag Up and Go (23 wins, $355K, 1:52 1/5 M). The Stable has been sending them ready and this colt should contend here. (5) NORTHERN MAJOR, a $30K Lexington purchase, is the second foal to race from the dam, the first one being Celebrity Bugatti (11 wins from 32 starts, $98K, 1:52 4/5 F). There is quite likely more than meets the eye from this Kadabra colt's lone qualifier; beware.

Race 3

(7) DONNA PARTY made two early moves to the front last time, set strong fractions, then gamely held off a rival that did no work until very late in the mile. Lined up inside of her main rivals here, she can dictate terms again and take another. (9) DARKTWISTEDFANTASY couldn't go with the choice when it counted last time but she is likely to be dangerous off the claim here. (8) WHISTYS PARADISE has won several times at this meet already and will likely get a beneficial pace set-up here; using. (10) NOMATTERWHEN was flying late last time after escaping traffic early in the lane. She's in with a chance but things may be tough for her starting from the 10-hole.

Race 4

(5) SOUTHWIND SAVAGE looks well-prepped to debut for the hot Coleman barn and this is a pretty soft spot. He could pop at first-asking here. (1) BIG YELLOW has improved his late speed in his last two starts and he projects to get a good trip here starting from the inside; using. (3) MAYFIELD DUKE looks like a solid contender here on paper, but his 0 for 17 record doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. (6) INTUITIVE WRITER is a full brother to Pop Writer (3 wins from 8 starts, $66K, 1:54 3/5 at Mohawk at 2 years old). He can take a share in this field to start his career.

Race 5

(6) LITTLE RED CHEV was a sharp winner from the worst post in her debut for Moreau. Most of these are no tougher than the field she beat last week and she stands a good chance of doubling up here. (8) WINDSUN REVENGE keeps showing early zip and did have some trot at the end of his mile last week. He could drop-and-pop here facing his easiest field all year. (3) WARAWEE PROTON has had a very productive campaign and now goes for Auciello off a win when claimed. He is another that merits exotics consideration. (7) NEILS GOLDEN GIRL is very consistent at taking smaller shares and is a good bet to make the ticket here.

Race 6

(1) GROUPIE DOLL - a $67K Lexington buy - is a 1/2-sister to ill-fated Modern Family (19 wins from 51 starts, $579K, 1:51 M) and Colbert (16 starts- 5-6-1, $122K, 1:54 4/5 F) that looks ready for a good debut race based on her June 21 qualifier. The rail can be tricky for a young trotter, though, so this should be a spread race. (4) RECREATE wasn't beaten far by a good colt on June 21 and this one showed some ability last year; using. . (6) AGENT DINOZZO is a 1/2-brother to solid racehorses Dorsay (10 wins, $450K, 1:51 4/5 M) and Propulsion (8 wins from 21 starts, $86K, 1:52 1/5 M). He likely has a lot more speed to offer than was evident in his June 21 qualifier; using.  (3) ANDOVERS CHOICE had a decent 2016 debut and can go forward off that mile.

Race 7

(5) SOUTHWIND GEO made a power move to the front in her debut but he couldn't sustain it to the wire. That experience should be invaluable here and she gets a slight nod. (3) ST LADS HOTCAKES could do no better than 5th is her debut despite pacing home in 26 3/5. She, too, should be better for that experience. (2) SOMEMONEYSOMEWHERE is the first foal to race from a dam that was bought for $2K then went on to earn $601K and take a mark of 1:49 1/5 at Mohawk. This filly finished quickly in her lone qualifier and should contend here. (9) OHELLO BLUE CHIP, a $19K Harrisburg purchase, improved dramatically in his second qualifier and is another that's in with a decent chance here.

Race 8

(9) RADIANT BEAM almost beat better two back. If she can produce an effort close to that one here, her rivals will be racing for second. (1) VERY CLASSY comes off a sharp win, projects to get a good trip near the front and she looks like the only real threat to the choice. (4) MAJESTIC PRESENCE should get a good trip near the front here as well and should stick around longer in this company. (7) TRUMPETS woke up with a better effort last time and should be closing for another share.

Race 9

(2) MUSICAL SPELL gets to drop to the bottom conditioned level here and could pop with one of his rare wins off a decent trip near the front. (6) HIE BENNY raced well vs. a sharp winner last time and is a threat to notch his first win of the year here. (7) BURNIN MONEY is another win-shy type that appears to have a decent shot here racing in the bottom class. Don't be afraid to go deep for Pick 4 coverage here. (9) ENTRANCED drops off two decent efforts and is another that doesn't win often that looks like a contender in this dash.

Race 10

(1) TARAHUMARA put the field to sleep to the 3/4 pole last time then sprinted away to an easy win. She should be able to work out a similarly good trip here starting from the inside and she gets the call to double up. (8) LADY JEN got hung out on the backside last week when the pocket-sitter pulled for the retake and she understandably backed up late. She goes for the top barn off the claim here and is sure to be put into play early in the race. (4) SOPHIE BLU could benefit from some early battling here and should be used on wider coverage Pick 4 tickets. (2) SHES DIGNIFIED has a solid record racing mostly out of town and she should sit a trip and take a small share here. (7) BIG TSUNAMI will be rolling up late from far back and figures to pass many of these and nab a slice.

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