10/17/2016 12:02PM

Mohawk: Tuesday 10/18 Analysis


Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


PICK 5: 6,7,8,9/2,8/6/7/6,7,9 = $4.80

EARLY PICK 4: 7/6,7,9/2,5,6/2,4 = $18

LATE PICK 4: 2,4/4,5/1,5,9/2,6,7,10 = $48

MEET STATS: 428 - 1260 / $2238.80  BEST BETS: 69 - 115 / $215.70

SPOT PLAYS: 27 - 115 / $175.20

Best Bet: ER QUINN (4th)

Spot Play: AMERICAN ROCK (2nd)

Race 1

(7) FIRE WATCH had a tightener vs. better at Flamboro after shipping east now he comes up tagged and returns in 7 days this time; slight nod. (6) TIGRA SEELSTER was on too much cover last week and she couldn't get involved late. She's worth a look at a price here. (8) COUGAR GAL has a good record and raced tough first-over last week; using. (9) LADY JEN set solid splits and was picked off only late last week. This looks like a Pick 5 spread leg.

Race 2

(8) AMERICAN ROCK chased home a strong victor that was winning for the second time in a row driving away from his rivals first up. He looks best here with that foe gone. (2) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER tried a big winner first up but he was no match in an extremely quick mile for the class. He figures here. (1) GOLIATH REIGNS should get a good trip near the front and take a share here. (3) CURATOR is another that rates a glance for the bottom exotics rungs.

Race 3

(6) POWERFUL MISSION put it all together for a new lifetime-best score last week. He will be very tough to beat with anything close to a repeat of that mile here. (2) GAELIC LASS made a very good recovery from an early miscue last time. She could threaten if she stays flat. (10) LADY EAGLE looked good winning last week when she made a quick and decisive brush around the final turn. She will need to be much faster to threaten for the win here, though. (4) JILONA will be heard from early, but a minor award is likely her ceiling here.

Race 4

(7) ER QUINN has faced much better in claiming handicaps. The switch to a conditioned claimer is significant; top call. (1) THINK AGAIN should be on or near the lead early here leaving from a much better post. He's likely the main threat to the choice. (5) MR IRRESISTIBLE woke up with a much better effort racing out of Moreau's barn. He will be a factor here. (2) LYONS GEOFF JR can be closer here if he can avoid another first up journey.

Race 5

(6) UTOPIA has been facing better and was solid in this class for several weeks straight earlier in the meet. Expect a return to form here. (7) DUH BUBBEES can be right there again this week if Saftic sends him again, which I think is likely. (9) SHOOT THE THRILL can improve in his second start for Auciello; using. (5) JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL is always logical to fill one of the bottom rungs of Tri or Super bets.

Race 6

(2) EAST END should be much closer to the front early here, which gives him a good chance in this field. (6) SURE FIRED BET is coming around with each start. He would be extra-dangerous if he landed in the pocket early here, which could happen. (5) TANGO STAR will likely get a lot of play here based on his recent company lines. He certainly isn't out of this. (7) KING OF SPORTS is worth a look for exotic bets based on his good qualifier on October 11.

Race 7

(2) P L JERICO - the Grassroots champion - gets top call here from a good post racing against horses that he has handled recently. (4) GEORGIES POCKETS had an impossible trip in the Grassroots final vs. the choice, now he gets a better post and adds Lasix; using. (7) HOLIDAY PARTY comes off his best race ever and is also worthy of consideration here. (3) GONNA FLY is one of the better closers in here. He should be passing horses late for a share.

Race 8

(5) SOAKING UP THE SUN has been super winning his last two starts. Stick with him until he goes off form. (4) NICHOLAS RYAN wasn't far back off the choice last time and he should be a threat again from close range here. (8) TEA WITH MS MCGILL fired a 26 4/5 kicker in his October 11th qualifier. He could wake up here if he behaves. (10) LUMIERE is likely for a smaller share here leaving from the outermost post.

Race 9

(5) MAXIMUSCLE is fast enough to beat these if he can overcome his gait issues here; slightest of nods. (1) STORMONT WIZARD faces easier and he should wake up with a better effort here. (9) ZEUS LIGHTNING drops to the bottom level and he too should race better here. (2) CLASS ME NICE keeps taking smaller shares at big prices. He's a good one to use on the bottom.

Race 10

(10) ST LADS LOTTO has a mark of 1:50 flat taken here this year. If he can stay flat this time, he can be a big threat despite his post. (2) SCHOCK N ROCK almost held on vs. similar last time. He should be a speed threat here, too. (6) FRANKIE BOY merits a look shipping in and changing barns but he probably needs one after missing more than a month. (7) LEAFS AND WINGS is always competitive in these classes, but his racing style often dooms him. (9) ZINGERS LAUGH can close for a slice same as he did in his last start.

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