09/03/2013 10:40PM

Mohawk: Thursday 9/5 Analysis


Race 4 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool



Race 1

(4) SHAKE IT CERRY recently finished second in a world record effort and tasted her only defeat of the year. She’s the filly to beat. (7) RIVETING ROSIE has been the queen in the provincial program and stepped it up even more with last week’s winning effort. (6) GAME ON HANOVER will offer a price as she continues to improve with each start and has closed very well in her last two.

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Race 2

(8) POCKET TRIP has a terrific win percentage this season and raced very well last week despite being pressured throughout the mile. He has gate speed along with the sustaining speed to win at this level. (3) LOKI DE VIE draws inside and has hit the board in two of his last three starts while in this class. (2) HOME BREW draws inside, debuts for O’Sullivan and adds Lasix. The trainer change is the main reason for my selection.

Race 3

(7) HONOR THY DAUGHTER comes out of the Takter barn and has the breeding in his favor. He’s fresh off a win and a top candidate if he minds his manners. (5) REFLECTION HANOVER has yet to finish out of the top two this season and comes from top Canadian connections. She’s versatile and dropped multiple seconds last start. (1) MARGIE gets the rail, gets Campbell and should benefit from a cleaner trip. She came first-over last start and that wasn’t her strong suit.

Race 4

(7) WILDCAT ART has won seven of 18 starts this season and moves into Moreau’s barn. He puts this horse right back in the same class, which makes my decision that much easier to make. (3) SHADOW BARAN finished third last start, by a neck, at a higher level. He draws inside, races on Lasix for a second start and is very capable on the class drop. (6) DOCS HOSS enjoys racing from off a helmet and he shouldn’t be too far back with a post six start. He was timed in 1:50 4/5 last week, so he has the speed.

Race 5

(6) LADY JAKE moves into the Gillis barn and is fresh off two straight wins at Vernon Downs. She has terrific gate speed and is hard to overlook at this bottom level on this circuit. (7) FLAME WORTHY will make her third start of the campaign and has yet to miss the board. She continues to improve and comes out of the Steacy barn. (1) VILLAGE JESSICA gets the rail and should provide a price. She should benefit from an inside trip and displayed the speed needed last start.

Race 6

(4) DEMANDING SAM scored a comfortable open-length victory last week and looks like the best in here. She’s very versatile, minds her manners and has the fastest record this year in this field. (5) DANICA HALL caught some people by surprise with her winning effort last week, but she’s shown to be a top player. She hasn’t missed the board in her last three and is coming into this even in top form. (3) SCREAM AND SHOUT comes out of the Takter barn and hasn’t missed the top three this season. She used a :27 3/5 final frame last start and should benefit in her second week on this circuit.

Race 7

(5) JETTINS DRAGON won in this class last week and now moves into the Johnson barn. There’s nothing not to like about him, while remaining at this same level. (6) ONE STOP DEAL is very versatile and a good option for second. He comes from good connections and draws better than last week. (8) CAMCRUISER HANOVER finished second, by a head, last week in this class. He draws outside, has gate speed and is capable once again.

Race 8

(2) ROCKIN ROMEO draws inside, comes out of Coleman’s barn and is due for his first career win. He continues to improve and gets Zeron in the bike again. (1) HOPIESDRAGNINTHEDO gets the rail and closed very well last week. He’s versatile and has a terrific final quarter, which he used last start. (4) WHITE SPORTSCOAT moves into the Mitchell barn and posted a good qualifying effort. He appears like he’s ready to drop multiple seconds.

Race 9

(4) COE LEADER closed from tenth-to-second last start using a :26 2/5 final quarter. He’s at the same level and likely will be the favorite. (3) MAGIC WILL WORK has won eight of 16 starts this season and deserves a chance to race on this circuit. He draws well and has excellent gate speed. I also like that Davis, Jr. is listed to steer. (1) VALLEY GLIDER might offer a price in here. He gets post relief and comes from a top trotting barn.

Race 10

(2) FOX VALLEY BONITA has won two straight and now moves into the O’Sullivan barn. She’s got a terrific final kick and should benefit from an inside post. (7) HANDS OFF HANOVER won in this class last week, but isn’t a standout. She gets Jamieson again and likely will race from behind. (8) ROCKNFLO has excellent gate speed and that will likely get utilized. She has a terrific on-the-board record this season.

Race 11

(2) MISS POPPYCOCK draws inside and is due for her first win of the season. She has early speed and used a :26 3/5 final quarter last week. (3) BREATHTAKINGBEAUTY draws inside and comes out of the McIntosh barn. This will be her second start of the season and shouldn’t be overlooked.  (6) GRACEFUL BEAUTY has a good final quarter in her, but will need a trip. This isn’t a deep field and a short field benefits her off-the-pace strategy.

Race 12

(2) ST LADS ZENA draws inside and has an excellent record this season. She’s fresh off a win and likely won’t offer a price. (4) AMERICAN GRACE also won last start and moves onto this circuit and up in class. McMaster’s barn has been terrific this season and she’s classified accordingly. (3) KATHERINE B set a new career best last start in this class and closed very well. She’s versatile and gets Davis, Jr. in the bike.