09/28/2016 11:36AM

Mohawk: Thursday 9/29 Analysis

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Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

 

PICK 5: 1,2,3,6/5/5,6/2,4,6,7,10/1,3,5,9 = $36

EARLY PICK 4: 2,4,6,7,10/1,3,5,9/7/3,4,9 = $60

LATE PICK 4: 3,4,9/1,3/1,3,4/8,10 = $36

MEET STATS: 375 - 1133 / $1957.30  BEST BETS: 62 - 104 / $193.00

SPOT PLAYS: 23 - 104/ $157.90

 

Best Bet: MAGIC PRESTO (2nd)

Spot Play: ESQUIRE (5th)

Race 1

(6) JUST TOO SPOILED wasn't far behind a good filly last time now faces much easier here; top call. (1) BEACHES BE CRAZY is a half to 1:49 pacer Dapper Dude, who shares the same trainer as this filly. She could show something on debut. (2) COLUMNIST can't seem to get there but she keeps coming close. (3) OK JEWEL can show sharp improvement here via class and post relief.

Race 2

(5) MAGIC PRESTO comes into this off two very good efforts in the Peaceful Way stakes and she lays over this group on paper; Pick 5 single. (3) JANDERSON should be part of the early pace and she can stick around for a slice. (7) HOLIDAY PROMISE is in sharp form and has shown she can take air; consider for exotics. (1) GRAVITATOR is capable of beating this prediction if she can stay flat.

Race 3

(5) WINTER SWEET FROST went a big trip on the rim in the Peaceful Way final and now meets easier from a better post. She should be prominent throughout. (6) ON A SUNNY DAY has shown she has the speed to go with the choice and she looks like the only real threat to beat that rival. (1) STUCK IN MY SPANKS can close for a share if she can stay flat. (3) LITERALLY is another who typically either hits the top four or breaks stride and finishes well back; your call.

Race 4

(2) ALEXAS HOPE could trip-out here in her first start off the claim. She is one of several possibilities in a wide-open race that demands deep multi-race coverage. (7) BADLANDS DELIGHT is honest and gritty. If she can latch onto a live helmet here, she can double up. (6) DONNA PARTY has taken slices in 47% of her starts this year, but she was better last week and she isn't out of this. (10) PRETTY HOT is at the top of her game but she will need to work out a trip here from the 10-hole.

Race 5

(3) ESQUIRE is bred to be pretty good and now that she has gone a clean trip, she could pop here at a square price vs. a group that has compiled many losses so far. (1) HILAROUS HERO is racing better and getting closer; using. (5) WORK THAT MAGIC lost to a good one two back then came back to win again. She could finally break the goose egg if she stays flat. (9) TYMAL REIGN could wake up with a much better effort here in a race that figures to be slower than the first two miles she raced in.

Race 6

(7) SAFEKEEPING is unbeaten with a catch-driver and she looks best here again. (3) BATOUTAHILL made a big uncovered move last time then tired a bit late. She is the main threat to the choice. (8) STONEBRIDGE PEACE looks logical to close for a smaller share. (4) THE POWER OF MANY likely won't improve on her 2016 record of 0-19 here, but she can take a share racing from close range.

Race 7

(3) SAUBLE ASHLEY went too fast early last time trying to clear from the outermost post. Post relief and a driver change make her my top pick here. (4) ITSALLABOUTTHEBASS closed okay and beat the choice in that same mile despite missing more than a month. Expect improvement here. (9) JIMBELINA comes off a big lifetime best mile at Grand River; using. (10) MY CREDITS GOOD has been so hot recently out of town that she can't be discounted despite her drawing the worst post.

Race 8

(3) MANOFMANYIMAGES raced well behind excess cover in the Grassroots final. Expect him to be closer to the lead and start his move earlier here. (1) WINDSUN MISSILE lacked room down the lane in the same race. He is sharp and capable of beating these. (5) JLS BAD MOON RISIN is another that should be closer to the pace but he is more likely to take a slice. (8) MUSCLE AVE has shown that he can win from an outer post. He can factor at a square price here.

Race 9

(1) LEAVING A LEGACY did a lot of the work last week and she fell just short. A slightly easier trip gets it done here. (3) TOTAL KNOCKOUT has a quick finishing burst when she races covered up to the stretch. She should be used in this Pick 4. (4) MATTJESTIC TEMPO put together her best mile in a while when dropped into a claimer last time. She may have found the right level now. (5) AMBROSIA SEELSTER can pass a few of these late and take a share.

Race 10

(8) BURNIN MONEY hasn't been used much in several starts. Dropping to the bottom level here, I would expect an aggressive approach. (10) CLASS ME NICE comes off a sharp effort and is worth a look at what is likely to be a big price here. (7) WAY OUTTA HERE could threaten here if he can stay flat as he was showing the signs two starts back. (6) POWER MOVE has raced much better in his last two starts and he wouldn't be a shock here if he broke through with a winning effort. (9) JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL fits at this level and is another that could crack the exotics at a price.

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