09/20/2016 3:32PM

Mohawk: Thursday 9/22 Analysis


Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


PICK 5: 3,4,6,9/4/2/2,3,4,6,8/1,2,3,10 = $16

EARLY PICK 4: 4,8/1,2,3,10/1,3,9/5,6 = $48

LATE PICK 4: 5,6/2,5,7/3,4/1,3,8 = $36

MEET STATS: 359 - 1071 / $1861.20  BEST BETS: 59 - 98 / $185.90

SPOT PLAYS: 21 - 98 / $131.00

Best Bet: ADVERSITY (2nd)

Spot Play: DOCS SAUSALITO (10th)

Race 1

(5) DEVILS ADVOCATE has shown improvement in two starts for Vanderkemp and this former stakes winner looks set now to get back on track with a win. (3) DOTTIE went a big trip last time after breaking. She is a big threat if she stays flat here. (6) WHAMBAMTHANKUMAAM was visually impressive beating maidens but these are tougher and she is likely to take a smaller share here. (9) DUCHESS KATE has popped at a price from this post before; consider.

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Race 2

(4) ADVERSITY hasn't raced in a class his low since late May but on that occasion he jogged; predicting history repeats here. (5) P C DREAM TICKET closed well despite encountering some road trouble last week and stepping up to face some class droppers should bring a good price here; consider him for the exotics. (7) DEWEYKEEPUMNWHY was a sharp winner when last in this class and he has raced decently vs. better since. He's another you need to consider for the Pick 5. (3) SECOND SISTER could hit the ticket here resuming from a break off a decent qualifier.

Race 3

(2) HAPPY HANNAH failed as the big chalk in a Grand Circuit race last time but these are much easier and she should prevail, albeit at a similarly low price. (6) BLACK JACK PAT drops out of the same race as the choice and she likely completes a chalky exacta here. (1) MANHATTAN PLAY has shown enough speed and class earlier in the summer to compete with the top two if she has her gait issues fixed. (4) JUST TOO SPOILED will be closing late for a slice.

Race 4

(4) CHARMING HILL was a solid second in her claiming debut last week. She will be tough in here racing from close range. (8) AMBROSIA SEELSTER has a tightener after missing 7 months and now goes for a tag here. Don't be surprised if she shows a lot more early zip than is evident on her chart lines. (2) TOTAL KNOCKOUT showed more final 1/4 speed last week which, if duplicated, would make her a contender for the win here. (3) CAMPS BAY has twice backed up late on the lead racing in claimers. She could look for a helmet to follow here and spring an upset with a different trip.

Race 5

(3) PARKHILL NONSTOP flashed a quick final 1/4 for the first time in his September 16th qualifier. He could go down the road here in his first try vs. straight maidens. (2) STORMONT DUNDAS is getting closer to that elusive first win; using. (1) DEUCE DEUCE DEUCE can threaten these if he can stay flat, which seems to be about a 50/50 proposition. (10) WORK THAT MAGIC went a big trip in defeat to one that came back to win again here on Monday night. Toss her on your Pick 4 tickets.

Race 6

(9) LYONS RIVER PRIDE was an impressive winner here on July 2nd. The recent qualifier suggests she is over her bout with sickness and she is classy and fast enough to compete with these if sent for position early from the outermost post. (1) STYLISH BEACHWHERE is sharp and dangerous racing from close range. (3) BRING ME DIAMONDS took a new life's mark last time and the step up shouldn't be that tough for her. (7) BIG TSUNAMI found her mojo racing in claimers now steps back into the conditioned ranks. Respect her newfound consistency.

Race 7

(6) UTOPIA continues to race well from off the pace. He can fall victim to road trouble at times, but, given a reasonable trip, he should be right there vs. these. (5) GRANA PADANNO moves to the middle of the gate and faces easier. He is a Pick 4 must-use. (4) EXEMPLAR couldn't chase down a stubborn leader last week but he fits this class well and has to be considered here. (2) TORTOLA SUNRISE raced much better when dropped to this class last week. He should take a share here.

Race 8

(2) ALEXAS HOPE raced well in defeat in her first start off the claim as she was beaten by a mare that was taking her third straight win at the class. She is one of the ones in here. (5) PRETTY HOT goes first time for Moreau off the claim here and she has been racing well at this class for several weeks; using. (7) MYSTERY WRITER has to be considered here with the drop in class, but she could be over bet relative to her chances. (1) DONNA PARTY is always competitive in this class, but notice the 13 slices so far this year.

Race 9

(3) CATCH THE DREAM comes off a powerful win vs. many of these and is a good bet to repeat, although it's unlikely you will get 3-1 this time. (4) WHISKEY TAX faced the best trotters on the continent last week; consider on the class drop angle. (6) INTIMIDATE was bottled up until late last time, but he still has won only one race in two years and will probably be overbet here off that perceived trouble. (1) CASH FOR GOLD should make the exotics here starting from the inside.

Race 10

(8) DOCS SAUSILITO paced a huge uncovered trip to win in this class last week; call to repeat. (1) VINTAGE BABE has been rock-solid in four starts this year and is the main threat and a Pick 4 must-use. (3) DANCIN IN THE NUDE beat easier in good time two back here. She merits exotics consideration, at least. (5) P L JASMINE is proficient at finishing 4th or 5th. She can take another smaller share here. (7) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE was overtaken by the choice down the lane last time but that was a good effort. She could better this prediction.

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