09/19/2012 11:39AM

Mohawk: Thursday 9/20 Analysis


Best Bet: MATTIE TERROR GIRL (3rd)      Spot Play: ALIBI TERROR (12th)

Race 1

The way (6) SPIKE HANOVER raced last week, he'll be my top selection. He left hard out of the eight-hole and just got nipped at the wire. I think he can get an easier trip with a better post. (8) GARETH NOURRIR is a solid play for second in my opinion. He doesn't like to win, but is at a level where he can hit the board. He can leave or come from behind, which increases his chances. (1) DEUCE MAN has shown he can compete on this circuit. I hope he's in the hunt early.

Race 2

(5) GOURMANDINE has posted just one win this season, but has been very consistent in the Grassroots program. There isn't much speed in this race and I think she can benefit from that. (4) DE LA NOCHE shows 1:56 speed at Mohawk and comes from a top trainer. (1) MOVEMENT has been knocking on the door lately. I think with post one, she's a factor.

Race 3

(7) MATTIE TERROR GIRL gets major class relief after facing Grand Circuit fillies. She'll likely be the heavy favorite. (5) BEACH OF A TIME is much the same as MATTIE TERROR GIRL in getting class relief. She's certainly fast enough to win or hit the board in this class. (8) SOMEWHEREINHEAVEN is stepping up in class and will have to improve, but I like her for third.

Race 4

(6) LUCKY AMY showed last week that she is competitive at this level. I admire her desire to be near the front. She also has a solid record this season. (8) PALM PATROL won at this class last week with a terrific final quarter. She offered value that start, but I don't think it will be as high this week. (5) BREEZIN ON BYE doesn't like to win, but she's in the claiming ranks where she belongs.

Race 5

(4) BELLE BOYD is due for a win this year after competing against Grand Circuit fillies. She should easily handle this class. (7) DOTTIE HANOVER caught me off guard last week from post 10. She continues to get better with every start. Don't overlook her. (3) MAKE SOME MEMORIES disappointed last week with her effort, but the McIntosh-Waples combination with young horses is usually successful.

Race 6

I found this race very hard to handicap, but I settled with (5) TYMAL OH SO NICE. He was a convincing winner two starts ago and he shows 1:56 speed over Mohawk. (10) THE GOLDEN CHILD has terrific gate speed and that's why I'm using him from post 10. Don't overlook his effort two starts ago over a sloppy track. (7) HERO OF MY DREAMS has been a steady performer for Fellows and is at the same level where he finished second more recently.

Race 7

(2) ALLAMERICAN SWIFT went a very tough trip last week. With an inside post two start, I don't expect that to happen again. She will likely offer minimal value. (3) GILLA DREAM is always a threat at this class. She loves to come from behind and won't get away too far back from post three. (7) WINDSUN T BIRD picked off everyone late last week after quick fractions. I think she'll offer a little value like last time.

Race 8

(8) GROWLY GUS benefited from moving to a bigger track. McIntosh has put him back in the same class and I think he can win again. (7) SANDBURG HANOVER successfully made the jump to the big track and was put into play early in the race. If that happens again, he's a contender. (9) WHITS YOUR MAJOR has a poor record this season, but raced very well last week from the same post. He's a longshot play.

Race 9

(5) MISS PARIS has been on top of this class all season. She likes to chase horses down in deep stretch and with a short field, this race sets up perfectly for her. (1) SUGAR WHEELER raced very well in the Simcoe and has gate speed, which, I hope comes into effect. She's a key part of your triactor/exactor selections. (2) DAYLON MIRACLE loves to leave the gate well and she's always competitive in the OSS.

Race 10

(7) MACH A WISH was simply spectacular winning the Gold Final last start. O'Sullivan has her right on her game after a layoff. She's fresh and looks like the horse to beat. (6) CLASS OF O NINE enjoys racing from off the pace, which can only benefit her in a short field. (3) APOGEE HANOVER can really explode off cover. She's got a great kick at the end of the mile. It will be interesting to see what McNair does with her.

Race 11

I'm taking (4) BAVARDE as my top selection because he looked extremely good winning last week. If he comes out with another effort like that, I don't think they can beat him. (2) MAJESTIC IMAGE is winless this season, but has been hitting the board in his last two starts. (6) COUNT SPEED has been trotting a few strong miles lately at Mohawk. He's usually a longshot play, so I'll take him for third.

Race 12

I took (3) ALIBI TERROR last week and she rewarded me handsomely. She's at the same level and I'm hoping for the same result. (1) HEAVENS BETTORHALF is fresh off a qualifier and O'Sullivan has an excellent reputation with first time starters. (6) YUMMY SUSHI is always in the hunt at this level. You can never count her out in this class.

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