09/16/2015 10:19AM

Mohawk: Thursday 9/17 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

4,5,6,9/3,5,8/1,4,10/2 = $36

 

LATE PICK 4: 2/2,3,9/2,4,7,9/2,3,7 = $36

MEET STATS: 319 - 1018 / $1735.70 BEST BETS: 45 - 91 / $146.30

SPOT PLAYS: 12 - 87 / $92.30

Best Bet: MAGICAL STEPH (2nd)

Spot Play: BINGO INGO (6th)

Race 1

This Grassroots semi-final looks made to order for a closer so we’ll try (8) CLASSICAL SON on top, likely at a good price. There seems to be an abundance of early speed here and he could pounce as the race falls apart late. (10) THEE DESPERADO is the obvious pick being unbeaten and fast, but the 10-hole may be his undoing here. (1) MUSCLES FOR LIFE has figured things out in his last two while showing good last speed and would be no surprise.

Race 2

(9) MAGICAL STEPH has won 4 of her last 5 and is obviously the fastest filly in here; post 9 shouldn’t be a problem for her. (1) MYRETIREMENTTICKET switched to a top catch-driver last time and was a predictable winner. She likely has more improvement coming with Henry at the controls. (5) JANDONE won impressively last week and should make the ticket here if she stays flat.

Race 3

(4) TRAVIATA has peeled off three straight wins using a variety of racing styles and should be good for a 4th here with the excellent late speed she has been displaying. (1) MARIANA spoiled a perfect record of exacta finishes by breaking last week. If she behaves she’ll be passing most of these in the second half on her way to an on-the-board finish. (5) THE MUSCLE TOUCH raced better last week when 2nd to the division leader and could spice up the exotics at a price here.

Race 4

(5) NICE TRIP waited way too long to make her move last week but was closing best at the end. She’s had many chances but meets a field she can beat here. (9) NOT DEPRESSED raced big two back here when only nailed very late, then was first up against a big winner at Grand River. Dropping out of the Grassroots gives her a better chance to break her maiden. (4) SO RAVEN blew a big lead late last time and is looking like a professional maiden at this point.

Race 5

(3) SPORTS EXPERT tried the best rookie filly pacer in the country last weekend and did well to close ground late. She should get a good pace to stalk here in this Grassroots semi-final. (8) PARTY IN ROME has caught fire, winning her last three in faster time each week. She’s the one to beat. (5) ROSY OUTLOOK has the ability to stalk and overcome a quick pace and can’t be discounted.

Race 6

(10) BINGO INGO has two big wins at this track in her past five starts – both times long odds – and will likely be overlooked here from the 10-hole; upset special. (4) GERRIES SPORT was trapped until it was too late two back then atoned with a nice win at Grand River last time; contender. (1) ST LADS MOONWALK has been rock-solid the past month and is another to include in the early pick 4.

Race 7

(2) SHES LIGHTS OUT tried it first up vs. L A Delight in the Eternal Camnation final and was swatted away like a fly. These are much easier and she should improve dramatically here. (5) SHOW TIME HILL exits the same heat and finished behind the choice, but should also perform much better here. (6) PEG is another from that same dash and this filly had a subsequent start in which she had some late pace; using.

Race 8

(2) MAYHEM SEELSTER hasn’t missed the exacta yet and is getting faster at the right time. She looks solid here to kick off the late pick 4. (6) BOURBON SEELSTER’s only loss came in the Battle of the Belles elimination. Her good early speed makes her a contender, but she also comes off a vet scratch and a 3-week break; mixed signals. (1) MATTJESTIC TEMPO raced tough last week and fits Grassroots company like a glove. She should be on the ticket here.

Race 9

(9) GEORGIES POCKETS has five wins and two seconds in seven starts and the trainer hands the lines over to a catch-driver here. He looks best in a competitive Grassroots semi-final. (3) WILDWILD MEN has four blowout wins in a row on his card but I suspect he’ll get picked off late. (2) ROMEO has been sharply improved in his past three starts and is another to consider.

Race 10

(4) SECRECY was a sharp winner here two back then closed too late at Grand River. He gets Filion back here and should get a more aggressive drive. (2) KING OF SPORTS beat the choice last time and was a narrow loser to him at this track two back. There is very little to choose between the top two. (7) KOKANEE SEELSTER went first up in the Champlain on Saturday and was easily repelled. These are easier; obviously.

Race 11

(3) LINDYS OLD LADY drops from Grand Circuit competition to NW2L and should go much better here. (7) LADY SPARTACUS was an easy winner vs. similar last week and has obviously found her best stride. (2) ATRIAWITCHTOYOU set solid fractions and was picked off late. She is far more dangerous racing out of the pocket, which is possible here. (4) MISCHIEVOUS GIRLS has 11 exacta finishes in 29 starts and two of them came here in just three tries; using. (9) ABBIJADE HANOVER has two wins in her last three and good tactical speed to overcome this post. She should take a lesser share.

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