08/02/2016 3:15PM

Mohawk: Thursday 8/4 Analysis

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Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

 

PICK 5: 1,4,5,6/1/4/1,4,6/5,6,8,9,10 = $12

EARLY PICK 4: 1,4,6/5,6,8,9,10/2,3/5,8 = $60

LATE PICK 4: 5,8/4,6,7,8/3/4,5,9 = $24

MEET STATS: 259 - 731 / $1388.80  BEST BETS: 43 - 69 / $139.40

SPOT PLAYS: 16 - 67 / $82.90

Best Bet: CANDLELIGHT DINNER (2nd)

Spot Play: PENNIES FROM ABOVE (3rd)

Race 1

(6) JAKE raced OK in his debut when beaten by a colt that had already won an OSS Gold previously. He should move forward off that race. (1) STENHOUSE HANOVER has raced well in both of his starts and should be prominent throughout in this short field. (4) SEVEN AND SEVEN took a ton of action for his debut but wasn't close enough early to be able to threaten late. The smaller field helps his chances here. (5) CANT U SPELL - a $35K yearling purchase who is a full-brother to two winners - could go much better here if he can say flat.

Race 2

(1) CANDLELIGHT DINNER is impossible to take a stand against here based on what she has shown on the track so far, but she will be 1/9 on the board. Take the Pick 5 free square and move on. (5) BLACK JACK PAT was 2nd to the choice two back and her driver will likely be looking to carve out a similar journey here. (3) MOMENT TO PONDER could complete an identical trifecta as her last start here by closing late for third. (8) SOUTHWIND GEO could better this placing but she will need to overcome the post.

Race 3

(4) PENNIES FROM ABOVE gets a catch driver back here and she should get put into this race earlier; top call. (2) HILLS ANGEL was a decent second to a strong winner last week and she looks like the main threat to the choice. (1) MIGHTY NICKY has some upside and isn't out of this if he is kept close enough to the front to pounce late. (3) ALFA MERSADIES has shown improvement in her past two starts and she can share here.

Race 4

(6) NEW YORK NIGHTMARE dropped and not only popped last start, he also took a new life's mark in the process; call to repeat. (4) HIGHLAND TARTAN was cleverly driven to win his last and Jamieson remains hot; using. (1) VELOCITY DRIVEN is the most likely beneficiary if things get crazy up front early here. (8) TIGHTEN UP takes a big drop here but has missed 5 1/2 weeks of action. His chances are dicey here despite the class relief.

Race 5

(6) GOLDIES MACH beat many of these last week and appears to have a favorable pace scenario in her corner here; call to repeat. (5) DONNA PARTY couldn't get to the choice late last week and looks next best again, but it wouldn't be a shocker of Henry tried to wrestle command from the choice in the mid-stages here. (8) TIGRA SEELSTER isn't impossible here and would benefit from a quicker pace, should that develop. (10) LADY JEN would look a lot better from a more favorable post here.

Race 6

(2) WORK THAT MAGIC has a couple of races earlier this spring that would make her a top contender here if she could duplicate one of those performances. I'll give her a slight nod in a wide-open race. (3) ROSE RUN RUDI will likely take this group a long way on the lead; using. (5) THE MUSCLE TOUCH always looks on the verge of a win but can't seem to convert. A minor share is likely again here. (4) SILKY FLASHY N FAST is another that just can't seem to get there. She will probably finish on the fringes again.

Race 7

(8) GATEWAY TO VICTORY - a homebred out of an unraced dam - has shown plenty enough speed in her qualifiers to beat this group, if she can stay flat throughout. (5) MACHING ME ZILLY was an unlucky loser last time when the winner closed like she was shot out of a cannon at the 1/16th pole. Use this filly in your Pick 4's. (2) SHEER TALENT paced a quick final 1/4 in her debut and she should go forward here. (4) FASHION WRITER seems likely for a minor share here.

Race 8

(4) SOIREE SISTER is one of many that could win this conditioned event. If she is kept close enough early her late kick will have her right there on the wire. (7) FUTURE HEADLINES went a big first up trip to win her debut but she will likely need more late speed to win this. (6) SIR NATIVE and (8) TALBOT CHANEL are also in with a chance here in a race where it makes sense to go deep for multi-race tickets.

Race 9

(3) STYLISH BEACHWARE, looking to extend her unbeaten streak here, appears to be a Pick 4 single but she will be a short price again. (4) AMERICAN CURVES returns quicker and moves inside here and she can provide some value for exotic wagers. (6) JUMP JIVE AND JAM looks next best and should take a share. (5) DIXIE LULLABY has some upside and should close for a share here.

Race 10

(4) GIVE EM HECK produced a quick final 1/4 on a wet track to win last week off the claim and he should be tough here, too. (5) BOLD AND LAZY ships in for Weller, who continues to send them ready every time; using. (9) MYSTIC DEUCE fits this class well and isn't out of this. (6) P L DANGEROUS is a great one to use on the bottom of exotic wagers. (3) Q ZILLA can follow along here and crack the High-5 at a price.

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