08/11/2015 3:28PM

Mohawk: Thursday 8/13 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

6/3,7,8/3,4,5,8/6,7,8,9 = $48

 

LATE PICK 4: 6,7,8,9/3,7,10/1,3,6/9 = $36

MEET STATS: 220 - 725 / $1271.30 BEST BETS: 32 - 65 / $107.50

SPOT PLAYS: 8 - 65 / $66.90

Best Bet: TORTOLA SUNRISE (4th)

Spot Play: WICHITA JAZZ (1st)

Race 1

(9) WICHITA JAZZ tried to leave from the 10-hole last time and suffered a long, exhausting trip. This is the first time he's come back in fewer than 15 days; could do with a better trip. (2) TYMAL WIZARD couldn't close late last time because the final 1/4 was the quickest of the race. He's dangerous here. (7) MY MY HEY HEY is one of only two winners in this dash but needs to stay trotting which he has issues with. If he can, he should hit the ticket.

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Race 2

(7) DEEP IMPACT was shaded late by his stablemate who saved ground late and slid up the inside. This gelding was moving best of all late and could turn the tables here. (3) BUCKETLIST HANOVER beat the choice aided by a cagey steer but that was an impressive debut nonetheless. This colt will be tough again but his price will drop substantially. (4) LEAN HANOVER showed great improvement in his second start when third to the top two and isn't without an exacta chance here.

Race 3

(6) THE BATTLE BEGINS has faced better recently and hasn't been able to enter contention. With his good closing kick, if Drury has him close enough he should be right there on the wire vs. this group. (7) REGAL SIGHT set some solid fractions last time and recorded a new life's best mark in beating Grassroots foes. He's the one to beat. (3) SANTANNA STAR showed good speed both early and late in winning his Mohawk debut. His consistency merits respect.

Race 4

(6) TORTOLA SUNRISE picked up a catch-driver last week and left hard from an outer post, took a tuck then powered by late again to win at big odds. He moves into Moreau's barn now and looks like a solid single to kick off the early pick 4. (4) ACCENTURE HANOVER made two moves last week and wasn't beaten that far while finishing third. He can make the exacta here with a good trip. (7) HILLSONATOR led most of the way but couldn't hold off the choice who now moves into the leading trainer's barn; minor award predicted for this one.

Race 5

(7) CAMPS BAY took some tote action but didn't show any early speed in her debut. There is likely more to this one than meets the eye. She might do well here if she leaves quicker and gets better position early. (3) SO RAVEN had issued finding room early in the stretch but once clear closed well to narrowly miss. She's the one to beat here. (8) NICE TRIP has shown good closing power in her last three starts and could threaten here if close enough turning for home.

Race 6

(3) YANKEE PUZZLE isn't the most reliable sort, but she gets major post relief here and should be prominent if she stays trotting. (8) ASPEN CALIFORNIA powered up off cover to break her maiden easily and this isn't the biggest class jump facing this group; using. (4) STEEL RESERVE also gets post relief and trainer Maxwell has been hot lately; using.

Race 7

(6) TWANG TWANG went a long trip last week and still held 2nd then was claimed; top call in the new barn. (7) VAL AMERICA faced a tough winner last week that was debuting in a new barn. His excellent late kick didn't do much for him then but he should be passing horses late here. (9) CASIMIR LOW GEAR has faced better recently. If he could come close to duplicating his June 30th mile he'd be tough to beat here.

Race 8

(3) STRIKNGLYIMPRESIVE qualified well enough to be competitive right away vs. this group; top call. (7) MARKETS UP couldn't close into an accelerating late pace last time. Maybe Waples puts this filly into the race earlier here; using. (10) P L INTIMIDATOR made a big move late but the one sitting on his cover swept by; he fits and can threaten even from post 10.

Race 9

(3) CAVIART SCARLETT didn't fire at Grand River but had missed three weeks. If she rediscovers her excellent closing kick here, she'll be hard to deny. (1) ABBIJADE HANOVER made several moves last week and still just missed by a nose. She'll be tough here from the inside. (6) HAZMATT found NW2L company a bit tougher although she did have a bit of a rough trip. She's a definite factor here.

Race 10

(9) SOAKING UP THE SUN powered up late to win his first start in a claimer. In doing so he recorded by far the fastest last 1/4 of any in this field; call to repeat. (2) MYHONEYTELLSALL  was a strong first-up challenger nailed late by the choice. He's an obvious contender again. (4) BEACH BLAST comes in off a nice conditioned win at Batavia and fits vs. these. (7) LMC NUKULAR STRYKE got roughed up last time and tired late. He could grab a share here. (1) SACHERTORTE has the look of one that follows along on the inside the entire way and sticks around for a top-5 placing.

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