07/08/2015 10:22AM

Mohawk: Thursday 7/9 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


2,7,8/6,7,10/4,6,7/2,6,7 = $81


LATE PICK 4: 3,4,8/1,3,6/2,6,7/2,4 = $54

MEET STATS: 160 - 515 / $920.60 BEST BETS: 20 - 46 / $71.10

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 44 / $53.20


Spot Play: NOT DEPRESSED (6th)

Race 1

(2) BUTTERMILK HANOVER caught our eye on June 27th when closing quickly in the final 1/8th for 2nd while under a death grip on a surface that wasn't kind to closers. She had a subsequent tightener and gets the call here off observations made from that initial qualifier. (1) L A DELIGHT was closing fastest in her debut and is likely to get pounded at the windows off that excellent debut. (7) TEMPUS SEELSTER has displayed good closing power in both trials and can threaten here at first asking.

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Race 2

(2) LOOKSLIKEACHPNDALE tried in vain to chase after a runaway leader in his seasonal debut, which proved an impossible task for him and the rest of the field. That was a solid effort he can build on and he figures to get a good trip on the early pace here. (1) SHOW BIZ HALL broke early last time and lost all hope in an OSS Gold event. If he stays flat he will be very tough to beat, but he figures to be a big chalk here, too. (6) ARIELLA won easily twice in this class before unsuccessfully trying sires stakes company down south. She is dangerous here, likely at a square price.

Race 3

(4) NO SHADOWS has looked good winning both qualifiers and will be tough in this pari-mutuel debut for a potent trainer/driver team; top call. (3) LIFE BOOK gave up a big lead late in her lone qualifier but can improve off that, especially if she gets a covered trip close to the leader. (1) TWIN B PRECIOUS had an opener where she didn't show much, but finished okay and could go forward here with that experience in tow.

Race 4

(2) DANCIN INTHE NUDE tried to close into an accelerating pace on a day when closers were at a big disadvantage. She managed to get by two in front of her late and looks as good as any in this wide-open dash to start the pick 4. Go deep. (7) MY RHYTHM OF RHYME made a big move to the front but couldn't hold off a good winner in the same qualifier as the choice. She did finish ahead of her and is one of the major contenders here. (8) JIMMYS LITTLE GIRL erased a 4 length deficit quickly down the lane and is another that will be on our early pick 4 tickets.

Race 5

(7) NATURAL GRACE has been on a tear out of town - winning 4 of 5 - and Mackenzie hands the reins over to Zeron here, who no doubt will be blasting early for a spot on or near the top; slight edge in another tough race. (6) GROOVEY KID was a big winner that was claimed by a conditioner that has won with 20% of her starters so far this year; using. (10) INCREDABLE FRANK drops from the top class at the B tracks and gets Filion. Don't be surprised by a big speed try, even from out there.

Race 6

(7) NOT DEPRESSED is a full-sister to three winners that won 27 times as a group and all went faster than 1:54 flat as individuals. Two of those three won in their first two starts. This one likely has a lot more speed than was shown in the qualifier; top call. (6) THREE DREAMS hasn't been asked for anything early in either qualifier but finished well in both and looks like one of the fastest fillies in here. (4) MISS PRINT followed along most of the mile then used a 27-flat kicker to nail down 2nd in her debut. She is a threat here.

Race 7

(2) MICHELLES HATTRICK is by a top sire out of a dam that took her debut in 1:53 3/5 and went on to win her first seven races and earn more than $300K as a rookie. She has also produced two winners from three foals. This one looks ready and gets the call here. (7) ST LADS SMOKIN HOT is a half-sister to St Lads Peeper (1:51 1/5) and St Lads Popcorn (1:52 2/5), both noted for their blazing early speed. Don't be shocked if this filly motors off the wings of the gate at the start. (6) STATE OF JOY is a half-sister to eight winners, five of which paced faster than 1:53 flat, the most recent of which was Happy Becky who won her debut here in 1:56 1/5 last summer. Throw this one on your pick 4 tickets.

Race 8

(3) HEAVENLY HILL is the first foal of a racemare that won 3 times and finished in the exacta 9 times in 16 starts while taking a mark of 1:51 2/5 and earning $190K. The daughter of Art Colony looks ready to roll for top connections and gets a slight nod here. (4) VERA BON is one of two horses that are by a modest sire that debuted and won at big prices at Georgian on June 28 for the same trainer. This one closed so fast that night she cannot be discounted here. (8) DIVAS IMAGE rocketed home for 2nd on June 27, a day where all 16 baby races were won by horses leading in early stretch. Don't sleep on this one at a good price.

Race 9

(6) CASIMIR PUCKER UP made two moves in her debut but couldn't close into an accelerating late pace. She did show good speed both early and late in that mile and gets the call here second time out. (1) ACTIVE LADY is a half-sister to two winners from two that have raced so far, one taking a mark of 1:49 2/5, the other 1:51 1/5. Keep her on late pick 4 tickets. (3) STARTLED dropped three seconds in her second qualifier in taking a first-over win and looks ready to go.

Race 10

(7) BOLD AMORETTO couldn't close on a big winner in her June 27 qualifier but she did keep the others at bay and held 2nd despite being out the route. Her dam has produced 5 winners from 6 that have raced and she is worth a stab here at what is likely to be a good price. (6) BOOZER BRUISER paced a solid qualifying effort on Saturday and may be putting things together now. (2) VERMILION BIRD was an impressive winner in her lone qualifier over an off track and goes for top connections.

Race 11

(4) FROSTY DELIGHT couldn't cut into a big deficit while on poor cover in an accelerating pace last time, but she did pace evenly and record a quick final 1/4. McNair may get more aggressive with this one 2nd time around knowing she can finish; slight nod in a wide-open dash. (2) BET ON HILL exits the same dash where she chased in 2nd the entire mile. She seems to fit this class better. (3) STONEBRIDGE SUPERB was a following third in the same race and is a good one for lower rungs of the vertical wagers. (8) ELECTRICINTENSIONS was closing well at the end but was way too far back. She can get a piece here if she starts up earlier. (9) OUTLIER has been hanging around for minor shares in this class recently.

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