07/06/2016 11:21AM

Mohawk: Thursday 7/7 Analysis


Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


PICK 5: 1,2,6/1,2,7/4/1,3,4,5,6/2,7,8,9 = $36

EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,4,5,6/2,7,8,9/3/2,4,10  = $60

LATE PICK 4: 2,4,10/2,5,6/3,5,6/1,7 = $54

MEET STATS: 191 - 564 / $1009.50  BEST BETS: 33 - 52 / $106.70

SPOT PLAYS: 11 - 51 / $56.40


Spot Play: ASTON HILL DAVE (6th)

Race 1

(6) PLACE TO ROCKNROLL - a half-sister to Table Talk (8 wins, $477K, 1:49 3/5 M) and Sing Like An Angel (44 wins, $267K, 1:53 2/5 M)-starts out in a spot where she could notch her maiden win right away. Alagna's barn has been doing well of late. (2) DOCS SAUSALITO gets Lasix, a much better post and faces easier; likely the one to beat here. (1) LUCKY PLAYER has improved for Jamieson and he returns to drive her here; using. (3) SPARKLE beat the choice in a two-move win in her qualifier and it wouldn't be a shock if she bettered this placing.

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Race 2

(1) ROYAL CHARM was a sharp first-over winner last week when required to pace the fastest 1/4 of the race at the end of the mile. If she behaves, she should be good for another here. (7) MAGICAL VALENTINE will be the one the choice has to chase down if this Kadabra filly doesn't self-destruct again, as she did in her last start. (2) CATCH A MISSION gets back to a 7-day cycle for the first time since her May 20th win, which could make a big difference here. (3) PROFOUND PATIENCE picks up a catch driver here and she could crash the exotics at a price.

Race 3

(4) STONEBRIDGE BULLET - a $85K Forest City sale purchase - should have plenty more to offer than what he showed in his July 1 debut and we should see some of it tonight; top call. (5) EXIT SANDMAN is a half-brother to several winners including 52-time winner Clowns Smile, who earned $737K and took a mark of 1:50 flat. He looks well prepped to contend here. (2) MACH DÉJÀ VU was solid in his lone qualifier racing on a track rated one second slow; using. (8) TEST RIDE is a homebred out of a dam  that is a full-sister to 2012 North America Cup champ Thinking Out Loud. This colt could be closing late for a piece here.

Race 4

In a race with virtually every entrant having poor or sketchy form, I'll go with the hot Weller barn and (3) ITS A BIG SECRET on top. (1) BIG HAROLD raced well last week and is rated highly with Filion again taking the reins. (6) LUMIERE will almost surely be the first leader, but his final quarters suggest he will stick around for only a smaller award. (4) TEA WITH MS MCGILL can produce a strong brush when right but he can also be very erratic. Perhaps the Macdonald barn can get a top effort out of him first time off the claim.

Race 5

(7) ARCHERY raced better last time and seems to be coming around for McNair, little by little; slightest of nods in a tough race to figure. (8) GROUPIE DOLL was patiently driven in her debut and closed okay when the pace picked up. She almost surely has much more to offer and can take these if she is put into the race early enough. (9) EARLY DECISION gets Jamieson for the second time, which isn't the worst angle play you could make; using. (2) THE MUSCLE TOUCH is likely to follow along and grab a small share if she stays flat.

Race 6

(3) ASTON HILL DAVE looks prepared to fire off a quick mile in this debut for team McNair here and will likely get sent from his inner post; on top. (8) SILVERINYOURPOCKET - a $19K Forest City sale buy - is owned by the same connections of local Preferred mare Ms Mac N Cheese. He should shave several seconds off that 2:02 3/5 qualifier at Northside in the Maritimes; beware. (7) REBEL VOYAGER is a half-brother to Lively Freddie, who recently won 4 straight including taking a new life's mark of 1:54 1/5 at Georgian Downs. Toss this one on your Pick 4 tickets. (6) DOC SEMALU goes for connections that are hard to dismiss, although a smaller share seems likely here.

Race 7

(2) PENNIES FROM ABOVE couldn't close much into the fastest quarter of the race last week. She finally gets an inside post and could get a much more aggressive drive here. (10) VERY CLASSY gets Byron back and he steered her to a 1:55 2/5 score two back; using. (4) TYMAL TEMPEST went a long trip after breaking early last time. She rates highly here if she can stay flat. (6) UNICUM BI A has a solid record and good tactical speed, which should him a check here.

Race 8

(6) MACHIN A TRICK  is a half-brother to two that have raced from the dam that have combined for 21 wins, including $210K earner Major Trick who took a mark of 1:51 3/5 on a 1/2-mile track. He looks ready to produce a strong debut effort. (2) MC MACH, a homebred, is from a dam that has produced all winners so far. His July 1 qualifier on a track rated a second slow was strong. (5) DOWN ON MY LUCK, a full brother to Coach Cal (26 wins, $275K, 1:52 2/5 H), raced much better in his second qualifier and should be heard from here. (8) EAST BOUND EDDIE is one-for-one, now moves to the big circuit and can't be discounted although the outer post likely does him no favors here.

Race 9

(5) YOGI BAYAMA made a good appearance on the track for his debut and outraced his odds to be 2nd to a strong winner. He can go forward and graduate here. (6) KINGSTON SEELSTER couldn't repel a sharp winner last time but he did knock almost two seconds off his final time in defeat. He should be right there this time. (3) MASTER THE VIEW is a half-brother to Inspiration View, who has won 6 of 17 starts and took a life's mark of 1:50 2/5 here this year. This colt looks ready to contend immediately. (1) ONE SOURCE dropped four seconds in his June 29 qualifier and should be able to grab a slice here.

Race 10

(7) HOPE AND FAITH finished quickly in her two Grassroots starts and rates highly here if put into the race early. (1) QUEENOFTHEJUNGLE is going to trip-out near the front and win at a price soon; maybe tonight? (5) DOCS DIVA faces easier and keeps Filion; using. (6) MISTY DE VIE was off a month prior to her last start and still raced okay. She is another that could take the wide-open finale. (3) BLISS AND LUCK likely leaves for position near the front here and sticks around for a share.

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offthepace2 9 months ago