07/29/2015 10:22AM

Mohawk: Thursday 7/30 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


4,8/1,8,9/1,2,6,9/1,4,10 = $72


LATE PICK 4: 3,4,5,7/4/2,3/1,5,8 = $24

MEET STATS: 194 - 637 / $1110.20 BEST BETS: 26 - 57 / $90.00

SPOT PLAYS: 7 - 57 / $57.30

Best Bet: ITS ALL ABOUT SAM (9th)


Race 1

(5) VERY CLASSY has overcome gait issues to post a decent qualifier on July 14 followed by a nice debut effort at Grand River of July 22. Perhaps trainer Bax – noted for his work with young trotters - has this one figured out now; top call. (9) ONATOPP overcame a slow pace and displayed impressive late speed to break his maiden out of town. He has a big shot if he stays flat, which will undoubtedly be an issue for several inexperienced trotters on this card. (1) MALIBU SEELSTER faced perhaps the best 2-year-old trotting filly last week and was drubbed. These are much easier.

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Race 2

This race has the feel of, ‘No matter whom I bet she’ll break’, but, if you absolutely must play here, maybe try (8) NORSTAR SEELSTER. She is a half-sister to a couple of decent ones and showed a lot of speed in her July 15 qualifier (before breaking in her debut). (4) CADILLAC SALLY was a big chalk last time and couldn’t close fast enough into a quickening pace. She figures here. (2) HERBE A LORAL was a decent third last time out and one of few with any kind of ‘form’.

Race 3

(9) MAGICAL STEPH faced Grassroots company for the first time last week and was a sharp first-up winner. Call to repeat. (6) MYRETIREMENTTICKET similarly dropped from OSS Gold action to face Grassroots foes in his second start and was an easy coast-to-coast winner; the main threat. (2) MAJOR MUSCLE was third to the choice last time but couldn’t keep up with her late after following her cover; minor award predicted.

Race 4

(4) CROWN ISLE changed tactics as expected last week and was just short of getting the job done. He was claimed from that race and figures highly here. (8) SLIGHT TOUCH was only a neck back of the choice at the wire last week and has raced well every time in this class; using. (2) LITTLE QUICK is sharp but dependent on a pace meltdown which seems unlikely here.

Race 5

(9) BALLYKEEL ROCKET may have fallen victim to her own pace-slowing tactics last time as she couldn’t withstand the pressure of the first-over challenger late. She has had a solid start to her career and the outside post shouldn’t be an issue. (1) SMASH HIT is by the country’s top trotting sire and is a full-sister to $325K earner I Know Magic (1:55 1/5). She looks well-prepped but many Kadabras have gait issues early; beware taking a low price. (8) TOSS IT BACK was a sharp winner in her second start and should be used on pick 4 tickets.

Race 6

(6) MAGIC BABE looked well on her way to 3 wins in as many starts when she miscued in the stretch last time. She looks best, but would you single her at 4/5 off a break? (9) TYMAL WIZARD broke early in her debut then made up 16 lengths in the final three quarters to nab third. She is an obvious threat…if she stays on gait. (1) CRAZY FIONA is interesting in that she totally turned things around in her July 24 qualifier. She merits inclusion if she goes off at a big price.

Race 7

(10) BADDESTNBESTEST lived up to his name in his Mohawk debut, taking no prisoners en route to a sharp score; call to repeat – even from post 10. (1) MATCHPLAY HANOVER drops out of the OSS Gold ranks and is a logical contender here. (4) BLUE ZOMBIE was passed by a breaker that looked like he accelerated once on the gallop to get by. He can compete here.

Race 8

(5) MALIA gets a big driver change here and can double up vs. similar company as she faced last time out when she won first up. (7) WINDSONGMUSCLELADY is showing improvement for trainer Bax and isn’t out of the question here for the win. (4) JARETTE A S had a decent debut and now drops in class, but has missed time due to a vet scratch; mixed signals.

Race 9

(4) ITS ALL ABOUT SAM closed with an impressive rush into an accelerating pace but the winner was long gone. She should handle this group. (8) CHEER FOR THE CATS also fired off an impressive last 1/4 and can improve here in her 2nd lifetime start. (2) MAJESTIC PRESENCE was only 2 1/2 lengths behind the choice last time and should get a better trip here.

Race 10

(2) L A DELIGHT stayed in during the mid-stages but found room early in the stretch last week then motored away. She looks like one of only two contenders here for the win, the other being (3) SHES LIGHTS OUT, who easily won the first leg of this stake series last week. Of the rest, (5) BOHEMIAN DELIGHT looks most likely to complete a chalky tri.

Race 11

(8) I WANT KANDY faced the top 2-year-old trotting filly we’ve seen last week and was a very respectable 4th. She gets top call here but is likely to be odds-on. (5) JANGONE broke twice last week but was an impressive winner twice prior to that. She seems most likely to capitalize if the leader falters. (1) HAILEYSGONEDANCING drops from OSS Gold to Grassroots competition and should be heard from.

Race 12

(5) A MARCOU STORY has won the past two times he has raced at Mohawk with similarly powerful moves around the final turn. He should handle this group. (3) MITCHELL BLUE CHIP was a close 2nd to the choice last week but had an easy trip. He should get a good slice here. (2) SPORTS VISION has never missed the board so far in his career and trainer Moore is famous for shipping these types in and winning; using. (10) CORSICA HALL was a sharp winner but now has missed 23 days. He faltered late on June 29 under similar circumstances. (1) ALASKAN SEELSTER is as solid as they come to make the ticket. Use him in lower slots of all your vertical wagers.

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