07/22/2015 10:09AM

Mohawk: Thursday 7/23 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

1,3,5,8/1,2,5,6,7,9/1,4/3 = $48

 

LATE PICK 4: 7,8/2,3,5/3,6,9/2,6 = $36        

MEET STATS: 188 - 604 / $1068.20 BEST BETS: 24 - 54 / $83.80

SPOT PLAYS: 7 - 54 / $57.30

Best Bet: CAPRICE HILL (8th)

Spot Play: BYE BYE MICHELLE (6th)

Race 1

(4) SILKY FLASHY NFAST was demoted for interference last time out but she did race well otherwise. This well-related miss can make amends here. (5) ONE TOO MANY was the beneficiary of that placing but did have good speed both early and late in that mile. She's a top contender here. (9) MAGICAL WONDER has been first up in both starts and hung on reasonably well. A covered trip could make a world of difference. Keep her in mind if the price is big from the outermost post. It wouldn't be the biggest upset ever.

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Race 2

(4) LEAN HANOVER qualified well enough that he should be competitive right away vs. this weak group of maidens. (7) MURS SON got another slice last time - his 5th in 15 losing efforts so far - and looks like a contender here by default. (8) UP THE ALLEY has been getting closer lately and would be no surprise here.

Race 3

(1) ROBOCALL HANOVER raced evenly in his debut and now gets a positive driver change. The $50K yearling purchase should show immediate improvement here; top call. (2) MISS PRINT got hung out in the fastest 1/4 of the race Sunday night at Georgian and stalled a bit late as a result. Henry will likely get more aggressive early here. (5) SHES LIGHTS OUT tried to move first up into an accelerating pace and hung in there fairly well. She too can improve here in her third start.

Race 4

(1) HE SAID makes his third start off the claim, adds Lasix and shakes Vegas Rocks, who has been deadly in this class. That could be a winning recipe; slight nod. (5) LMC NUKULAR STRYKE has made the exacta 10 times in 19 tries this season racing mostly out of town, but this isn't the strongest field and he should factor. (3) BIG DUTCH is interesting because his qualifier vs. Roses Are Red winner Lady Shadow was far more impressive than any of his pari-mutuel attempts. The last 1/4 especially stands out; using.

Race 5

(6) SKY ANGEL went first-over chasing what looks like one of the best 2-year-old trotting fillies out there and held 2nd in a good debut effort; slight nod in a wide-open dash. (2) READY ANY TIME led until very late in a Gold event out of town. She is one of several Kadabra fillies in here with a shot. (5) DEVILS ADVOCATE closed belatedly into a swift final 1/4 for 2nd. Having a Hall of Famer at the controls won't hurt her chances. This is a race to go deep in the early pick 4.

Race 6

(1) BYE BYE MICHELLE left like a rocket last time for the front but several lead changes mid-race did her no favors. There is speed to chase here and she should return to a closing style off cover. She's one of several that can win this. (4) NINETTE B produced a super first-over effort last time, hung a long way and still came on for the win; contender right back. (3) TABOO SEELSTER again put up some big fractions but couldn't withstand sustained pressure late. A bit easier trip may be all she needs.

Race 7

(3) WORLDCLASS HANOVER was moved way too late and had to try to close into the fastest 1/4 as the winner sprinted. This filly's effort was tremendous, considering. The driver switch to Waples should do the trick here. (4) STRIKING CHEETAH showed late interest last time in her 2nd start with trotting hopples on. She should go forward from that effort; beware. (1) MARKETS UP closed well from far back and is a contender here if she minds her manners, which looks like it could be a big if.

Race 8

(7) CAPRICE HILL is so highly thought of by driver Gingras that he made the trek up to Georgian Downs to drive her in her debut. She missed Bee A Magician's track record by only 2/5 of a second in that winning debut and looks like she could be something special. Top call, but don't expect to get rich. (8) EMOTICON HANOVER was also an impressive winner the same night and merits respect. (1) COULD IT BE MAGIC has never been close to headed in two winning efforts and no doubt will be winging early here. Her presence alone makes things interesting.

Race 9

(5) DAY TRADE HANOVER couldn't get hold of a wet track in the pouring rain on June 27, but three weeks later knocked more than six seconds off his previous qualifying time when winning by daylight. It should be all systems go for the $57K yearling purchase. (2) SOUTHWIND MAYHEM didn't show much in the OSS Gold last time vs. a sharp winner that repeated last Saturday. These are mostly easier and he should get involved early. (3) BLAISE MM HANOVER showed little from the 10-hole in his debut in a race were the back half was four seconds faster than the opening half. He could improve dramatically here.

Race 10

(9) MILEYS BIG WORLD moves into Moreau's barn after another huge effort where she fell just short despite firing a 27 1/5 kicker. Don't be surprised if Filion sets sail for the lead early here. (6) ANDRO MADI parlayed a third quarter breather into a narrow win over the choice last time. She's sharp, but likely won't be left alone if she slows the pace here. (3) MURPHYS IDEAL had been racing well out of town prior to her last race in which she broke early. She can compete here.

Race 11

(2) BISTROBISTRO TAJ destroyed similar three back here then had two rough trips out of town. She should be very tough tonight. (6) COLORATURA gets Zeron back and he coaxed a quick brush out of her on the end of a winning mile on June 22. She is the main danger here. (4) RAILEE PRITI has been close several times but often gets free too late to get to the winner's circle. She's a good one for tri bets at a minimum. (8) CINCINNATTI MISS is the likely pacesetter and she should hang around for a slice. (5) AUNT LOTTIE either breaks or makes the board; toss-up which it will be here.

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