07/20/2016 11:27AM

Mohawk: Thursday 7/21 Analysis

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Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

 

PICK 5: 1,5/6/2,6,8/2,4,5,6/1,4,7,8,9 = $24

EARLY PICK 4: 2,4,5,6/1,4,7,8,9/8/1,9 = $40

LATE PICK 4: 2,3/2,6/5,6,7/1,7,8,10 = $48

MEET STATS: 222 - 658 / $1153.90  BEST BETS: 37 - 61 / $118.30

SPOT PLAYS: 13 - 60 / $63.90

Best Bet: CANDLELIGHT DINNER (2nd)

Spot Play: TO HIS CREDIT (4th)

Race 1

(1) PLACE TO ROCKNROLL was a distant second to a rival that paced insanely fast considering it was a maiden race. This filly looks best here and she should be put into play early. (5) JANETTES IMAGE took more than two seconds off her mark when winning for the second straight time at Georgian and she is the obvious danger. (2) NIC NAC PATTY MACH is now 0 for 17 but is a good bet to make the ticket. (4) ELECTRIC PONDER looks best of the rest and should stick around for a slice.

Race 2

(6) CANDELIGHT DINNER lived up to her pre-race hype in her debut and she looked like she could be any kind; call to repeat. (4) SOMEMONEYSOMEWHERE was beaten by a good one last time and raced well on the rim but was rebuffed. She can complete a chalky exacta here. (7) TOUCHING THOUGHT has finished quickly in every start. She can add some value to exotic wagers here. (3) OHELLO BLUE CHIP was a well-beaten third to the choice in her debut. She can take another smaller share here coming off a vet scratch.

Race 3

(2) INNER DRIVE was pounded at the windows last time but she blew up before the start. If she behaves, she looks best here. (6) HAB FAITH was a decent first-up 2nd at Georgian and merits Pick 5 inclusion in a race that could be decided by who breaks and who trots the whole mile. (8) OH MISS SOPHIE can build off her decent opener and take a share here. (5) PARKHILL NOCREDIT is another that can follow along and take a share.

Race 4

(2) TO HIS CREDIT faces easier here and should be in position to strike turning home; top call. (6) MAYFIELD DUKE seemed to have turned the corner before his last start then he broke while racing in the rain. Put a line through that mile; he's a contender. (5) JACK RACKHAM closed furiously very late in the mile to score last time. Toss him on your multi-race wagers, he is a threat right back. (4) ARCHANGEL THREE will trip out one of these times and pass them all with his good late kick; using

Race 5

(9) ROSE RUN RUDI cut some big fractions and just about held on at big odds last time. A slightly more patient drive could do the trick here. (1) UF MUSCLEMASS STAR should get a much better trip here leaving from the inside and challenge for the win. (8) SCOTTIES SPIRIT can threaten here if he races like he did two back. (4) DEUCE DEUCE DEUCE has a couple of miles showing at Hoosier in May that would make him competitive here if he could reproduce one of those efforts. It is hard to know what to expect from him, though.

Race 6

(8) MAN SHES HOT was an easy winner at Georgian and she has been sure-gaited so far in her career; call to repeat. (7) MAJESTIC WANDA broke while going for the lead in her debut. She can rebound with a much better effort here if she stays flat. (4) YOU CANT AFFORD ME can contend here is she could reproduce her mile from two back where she finished quickly. (2) WHOLE LOT OF SUGAR can go forward here off a decent debut race out of town and take a share.

Race 7

(1) GIVE EM HECK goes for the hot Weller barn off the claim here and picks up Henry to drive; top call. (9) HP BLACK SHADOW is one of many leaders that stopped late on a very sloppy track on the 14th. He should do much better here off the claim. (6) EVENING JOB drops back into claimers and gets a positive driver change here; using. (8) MARACASSO is likely to show speed but his slow final quarters are a cause for concern.

Race 8

(2) GOLDEN SON shoots for four straight here and he should convert at a short price. (3) DEWTIFUL LASS broke while racing in heavy rain last week. Put a line through that start and use her in exotics here. (7) DEWEY DON'T CHEAT should contend with the drop in class but history suggests that a smaller slice is more likely for him. (5) MOSTINTERESTINGMAN is another that is more likely to take a smaller share than a win here.

Race 9

This race will likely come down to two high-priced colts making their debuts. I'll side with (6) IDEAL WHEEL ($150k Harrisburg purchase) over (2) SOUTHWIND GENERAL ($110K Lexington purchase) based on their final qualifiers, but this one could likely go either way. (7) ONE SOURCE improved sharply in his second start and he should be closing for a piece again. (9) DARLINGS DRAGON closed impressively in his debut but he would have a tough time trying to pass all of these rivals.

Race 10

(7) ANIKADABRA closed into an accelerating late pace in her debut. That start should have her perfectly prepped for this Grassroots dash; top call. (6) KENDRAS COCO was a likely winner when she broke late in her debut. She will be tough in here if she behaves. (5) P C PIPE DREAM is the only winner in the group, so toss her on late Pick 4 tickets. (3) LATE SHIFT can follow along for a slice, same as she did in her debut.

Race 11

(7) MYSTIC DEUCE faces much easier here and I would expect Christoforou to get aggressive early and try to take control of this race. (1) NEVER BEEN TOLD had broken equipment last time when finishing third. He should be right there vs. these. (8) VELOCITY HEADLIGHT signaled a return to his best form last week late in the mile and he should be used in the late Pick 4. (10) HIGHLAND TARTAN was given a sharp drive to win last week but the 10-hole likely relegates him to a smaller share here. (5) HEMINGWAY steps up off the claim but he should grab a piece of this.

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