07/17/2013 10:38AM

Mohawk: Thursday 7/18 Analysis

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Race 4 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: IDEALBEACH HANOVER (2nd)

Spot Play: PUTMEINTOGO (11th)

Race 1

(6) SIXTH MAN has a terrific record in four starts this season and gets Zeron in the bike. He finished second in this class last week and is certainly capable of winning. (5) BODY BALANCE closed very well last week to finish fourth at very high odds. He'll get a lot more respect this week. (8) ROLLS BLUE CHIP has gone two very tough trips in his last two starts. He has the speed, but will need a trip from post eight.

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Race 2

After last week's impressive performance, (6) IDEALBEACH HANOVER is clearly the horse to beat. He appears to be the real deal and is eligible to the Metro Pace. (9) VANCE BAYAMA raced well last week with a very good final quarter. He has the speed, but will need to overcome the outside post nine. (7) WARP FACTOR THREE has posted two winning qualifiers and will make his first career start. He appears to have the speed, but may need a start.

Race 3

(5) GUTSY GREG comes out of Moreau's barn and is due for a win. He was the favorite last week and failed to win, but produced a very good effort. (6) LIFE SIGNATURE raced on Monday and finished fourth with broken equipment. He's certainly a factor in this class. (2) DEUCES AND JACKS draws inside and has a good record this season. He gets Jamieson in the bike, which will only decrease his price.

Race 4

(6) GRANTOR HANOVER doesn't have the best win record, but this class isn't deep this week and he has the speed. He'll need the right trip and should offer a fair price. (10) ABLAZE HANOVER will have to overcome post 10, but he comes out of Moreau's barn and is fresh of a winning effort last week. He steps up in class, but I feel he can handle the transition. (3) OK FERRARI draws inside and has been knocking on the door in his last two of three starts. He'll likely race from off-the-pace.

Race 5

(6) FANFAN DREAM has a good record so far in two starts this season. She continues to drop time and can only be better in her third start. (7) EXPLOSIVE MUSCLES is a perfect two-for-two this season and has displayed solid winning efforts. He moves into the Arsenault barn and is very versatile. (8) BWT TAJ showed enough speed last week that he's a threat for the triactor. He hasn't been at his best in recent starts, but showed improvement last week.

Race 6

(7) AMBLE OVER HANOVER is hard to overlook in this class. He'll likely be the favorite and deserves to be after his last four terrific performances. (6) SILVER DRAGON comes out of the McMaster barn, which has been terrific all season. This horse is classified correctly and has a very good record this season. (5) SHADOW BARAN has a great record this season, gets McNair and has been racing very well in his last five starts. I'm going to overlook his latest line.

Race 7

(9) SAMIRA HANOVER appears to be a coin toss. She has the speed to win if she behaves herself. She has terrific gate speed, but could just as easily self-destruct. (2) VALLEY GLIDER has been knocking on the door in three starts this season. He continues to improve and is a good option for the exactor. (7) EXEMPLAR found the wire first in his latest at Georgian Downs and comes onto this circuit off a winning note. He also comes out of the Henriksen barn, which can't be overlooked with young trotters.

Race 8

(8) GENESEE comes out of Wallace's barn and was used fairly hard in his latest outing. With a cleaner trip, I feel he's a top candidate. He also gets Jamieson. (3) OK FABOULAS draws well and is fresh off a win. He moves up in class, but shows enough speed to handle the move. (1) GEORGE JETTISON draws the rail and will get Lasix for the first time. If he's not too far back, I like his chances.

Race 9

(10) ILL BE THERE will have to overcome post 10, but he's hard to overlook in this class. He won at this level last week and has been racing very well. (8) PERFECT VACATION has been knocking on the door in this class and has been very consistent this season. He enjoys being put into the race, which is always something I like to see. (4) FAMOUS MARK won last week, has a good record this season and gets Jamieson in the bike. He might offer a fair price like last week.

Race 10

(1) CRUIJFF hasn't won yet this season from four starts, but has been very close. He gets post one and this field isn't that deep in talent. (2) WARHORSE also draws inside and has hard-used last week to earn the front. He might offer a large price again. (9) APPLE A DAY scored an open-length victory at Georgian Downs last start and moves onto this circuit. He gets Davis, Jr. and comes out of the Darling barn.

Race 11

(7) PUTMEINTOGO closed very well last week to finish second. He paced a good back-half and this maiden class isn't deep in talent. I think he'll provide a price and if he isn't too far back, I like his chances. (3) GRACEFUL BEAUTY finished third in this class last week and is capable of improving. She'll likely offer a price. (1) HANDS OFF HANOVER draws inside and was simply in too tough last start. She's at a much better level and should benefit off that.

Race 12

(6) WESTERN RIVAL has won three straight and moves onto this circuit. He moves up in class, but has a good record this season. (5) BEEEYOUUUUUU hasn't been at his best in recent starts, but had been racing very well this season prior to his last few outings. I'm looking for a rebound effort, but he's capable of it and is at the right class. (10) WILDCAT ART draws poorly but can get involved.

 

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