06/22/2016 10:30AM

Mohawk: Thursday 6/23 Analysis

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Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

 

20-cent Pick 5: 1,2,4,6/3,7/1,2,4,5/5/3,4,7,10 = $25.60

Early Pick 4: 5/3,4,7,10/3,4,5,9/2,4,8,9 = $64

Late Pick 4: 2,4,8,9/3,7,8/6/1,5,6,8 = $48

MEET STATS: 149 - 470 / $815.70  BEST BETS: 26 - 44 / $87.20

SPOT PLAYS: 7 - 44 / $44.50

Best Bet: SAUBLE ASHLEY (4th)

Spot Play: THE POWER OF MANY (6th)

Race 1

(6) THORNE SEELSTER is a full-sister to Titus Seelster, who notched 14 wins, earned $168K and took a mark of 1:51 flat at Mohawk as a 3-year-old. She roared home to win her qualifier and MacDonald appears to be sending his babies ready as The Stable aims to make some noise early in the season. (1) ST LADS HOTCAKES is a full-sister to the speedy St Lads Peeper (14 wins, $247K, 1:51 1/5 Mohawk 5YO) that also looks well-prepped for her debut; using. (2) VILLAGE JAMIE is a full-sister to the useful Village Jessica and Dull Roar. She paced her final 3/4 in 1:26 3/5 to win her lone qualifier. (4) ACTION MAJESTY closed quickly in both qualifiers and is capable of bettering this prediction.

Race 2

(7) DEFI NORMAND set some strong fractions last week and held on well late. A repeat of that game try should beat these. (3) WEVE HAD ENOUGH made two moves in the same race and helped soften up the choice. He appears to be the main threat here. (2) JAGERSRO, as always, is a strong possibility for a minor award but unlikely for the top spot. (1) MINI HER closed belatedly in the same dash the top two raced in and now she gets to move inside. She should make the ticket if she stays flat.

Race 3

(5) BETTORS UP - a $15K Lexington purchase - finished strongly in her lone qualifier and looks like one of several that could win this. (1) BOURBON AND BARLEY motored home off slow fractions and is an obvious contender, but she may be over bet off her speedy final 1/4. (2) SOUTHWIND GEO made two moves to win her June 10th qualifier and she too is an obvious threat. (4) GUIDETTE HANOVER improved her overall time and last 1/4 speed on June 17th and is another that should be considered for Pick 5 tickets.

Race 4

(5) SAUBLE ASHLEY showed significant improvement second time out when on the rim a long way. She should have no trouble beating these if she is put into the race early and that scenario seems likely with Henry retaining the drive. (2) NORTHERN PRIMA came on again late after taking a mid-race shuffle, but she was still 4 1/2 lengths back of the choice. She seems very likely to finish 2nd or 3rd here. (9) FROG POND PRINCESS is capable of showing speed early then sticking around for a slice. (3) TREASURED MOMENTS is another that can leave quickly, but she has had some trouble finishing her miles. A minor share is possible here.

Race 5

(3) XPERT BAYAMA fired off a career best effort last week in which he gamely dug in late to hold off his closest pursuer. A repeat is very possible here considering his current sharpness. (10) PIRANHA roared home to win on the same night and also took a new life's mark in the process. His consistency and potent late kick should be respected here. (7) DERECHO produced the best effort of his life in defeat last week and is another in with a shot in a competitive tilt. (4) IMSPORTY paced a huge third 1/4 to bottom out the field last week and he is another contender that can make things interesting here.

Race 6

(5) THE POWER OF MANY passed half the field during the back half last week in a decent effort after shipping in and missing three weeks. Moving to the middle of the gate and returning to a 7-day cycle should make her a top contender here. (9) LIFE STRIKES got hung the mile leaving from post 10 in a Grassroots race - which seem to have more horses leaving hard than typical non-winners races. Tonight she has a better shot of making the front or landing a spot near the lead early and that makes her a threat here. (3) SCOTTIES SPIRIT - like many young Kadabra fillies early in their careers - could wake up and pop at a big price here. (4) ANNELI HANOVER chased strong fractions then tired late. She could hang on better here with more moderate early splits likely.

Race 7

(2) BIG RICKY should get a much better trip here moving inside several posts and having had a race over the track; slight nod. (8) VEGAS DREAM was outkicked late in a strong showing and he will get his first win of the year soon. (9) RED DOG SALOON was nailed only late at a big price and is another that can threaten if he leaves quickly to get position early. (4) DAYLIGHT RUSH could not repel an onrushing rival in the third quarter last week, but he has been sharp for weeks and is another one that could take this with the right trip.

Race 8

(8) V FOR VICTORY qualified sharply twice for this sophomore debut and it's very possible a lifetime best performance could be produced here by this Angus Hall gelding. (7) SOUTHWIND STRYKER was no match for the tripped-out chalk last week, but his good overall speed makes him an obvious contender here. (3) WINDSONGMUSCLELADY will be closing quickly late and she isn't out of this, but must avoid road trouble to be in a spot to win as the field turns for home. (4) THE BIG MUSCLE is typically one-paced and could make the ticket off a following trip.

Race 9

This looks like a now-or-never spot for (6) CRUISE PATROL. He will likely never find a softer spot than this one. (7) DAY TRADE HANOVER also faces easier and is likely to show some early speed here. (4) CHALK PLAYER likely leaves, takes a tuck near the front then sticks around for a smaller share. (5) MY OLD MASTER can close from the back and pass a couple of these late.

Race 10

(6) TANGO STAR was a strong 2nd to a big chalk last week and he appears to have found a good spot to notch his 2nd win. (1) BIG PLACE wasn't disgraced in Grassroots competition and is another that should like this company; using. (8) SILVERSMITH should be launching off for the front from the outset here and he could stick around for a good share. (5) MR SESSOR should improve racing against easier and starting from the middle of the gate. (7) NOTETOSELF HANOVER, with 7 shares from 13 starts, seems likely to fill in one of the bottom exotics rungs.

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