06/14/2016 4:26PM

Mohawk: Thursday 6/16 Analysis

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Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

 

PICK 5: 2,6,7/4,5,7,8/5,8/4/3,4,8 = $14.40

EARLY PICK 4: 4/3,4,8/2,5,7,10/2,6,8 = $36

LATE PICK 4: 2,6,8/7/2,4,6/3,7 = $18

MEET STATS: 124 - 380 / $694.00  BEST BETS: 21 - 36 / $74.20

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 36 / $40.90

Best Bet: CONTINUAL HANOVER (4th)

Spot Play: CAMS LUCKY SAM (1st)

Race 1

(6) CAMS LUCKY SAM closed some ground late last time on a wet track and shows several races this spring that make him very competitive with this group; top call. (7) BIG PLACE went a big first-up trip to break his maiden as a longshot last time in only his second start and he has some upside; could offer a good price again here. (2) MACH POWER faces his easiest competition in months and could wake up with a much better effort here. (4) VEGAS DREAM rarely misses the board and could better that placing racing from close range.

Race 2

(4) COLLECTIVE WISDOM raced well against a filly who won several straight, now switches to the top trainer’s barn here and she should be ready to do some damage right away. (8) SQUARE DANCER closed a bit into an accelerating late pace last time and is a top contender in this field, but needs to be put into the race early from this post. (7) JUMP JIVE AND JAM comes off a maiden-breaking score at Philly. She clearly looks faster this year and moves into a potent barn here; using. (5) ITSALLABOUTTHEBASS has the best late speed of any in here and isn’t out of this, but could fall victim to pace and/or trip.

Race 3

(5) WARAWEE ROO has excelled in his past two starts while showing improved speed. He gets a slight nod over (8) MISSEDBYADAY based on his better tactical speed. The latter was a good second to a classier rival last time and is clearly one of the main contenders here. (1) JLS BAD MOON RISIN is worth a look switching to Moreau's barn here. (2) THE BIG MUSCLE could secure a spot near the front early and share off a following trip.

Race 4

(4) CONTINUAL HANOVER meets a soft field for his 2016 debut and should have no trouble with these if given a reasonable trip. (7) AZUL POOL has been racing better and getting closer, but still remains winless and is more likely to grab a slice here. (2) TANGO STAR could crack the exotics at a price from an improved post. (9) ONLY HALF BAD is another that is winless and can grab a smaller share here.

Race 5

(3) ST LADS MOONWALK went a monster trip to win his last start, visibly flying down the lane to catch the leader, who set and maintained strong fractions. He will be tough to beat here if he producing anything close to that mile. (8) INSPIRATION VIEW was an okay 3rd to a gelding that is currently one of the best male sophomore pacers on the grounds. He is the one to fear. (4) A BETTORS RISK was an easy winner vs. lesser on Monday night here and is obviously improved; using. (7) SOUTHWIND MONTY will be close early and may stick around for a piece.

Race 6

(2) SVENSSON is a half-brother to one that has raced and that sibling won early. I'll give him a slight nod in a race where anything likely goes. (10) OPTIMA KEMP is a half-sister to six winners that won a combined 84 races and is worth a look off a decent qualifier. (7) RED MONSTER had an eventful trip in his Mohawk debut but still managed to make the board. He should be a threat vs. these. (5) STAR MAGICIAN raced much better last time and should be closing for another share here.

Race 7

(8) BAD GAMER continues to show good late speed and can race effectively using various styles. He should get put into play earlier here facing easier and should be right there vs. these. (6) PERSEVERANT qualified decently enough for this sophomore debut and he was a first-out winner last season; using. (2) NEW TALENT had an eventful trip last time, now gets a better post and is another logical contender. (3) LEVY TAYLORE has finished in the top three 60% of the time so far and can use his good early speed to grab a spot near the front and stick around for a slice.

Race 8

(7) LINDYS NIGHTMARE simply looks fastest here and should beat these if she behaves. (5) SAUBLE ASHLEY had a decent debut race and can build off that with an in-the-money finish here. (4) QUEENOFHEARTS ships in with decent form but will need to produce more speed both early and late to contend here. (3) DORABELLA is likely for a minor award but her 0 for 20 skein likely gets extended here.

Race 9

(4) HP PATRIOTE brings a perfect 2016 record to Mohawk and has shown he can take a lot of air and keep rolling; top call. (6) INSTANT SHADOW ships in from the Maritimes and moves in to Dr. Moore's barn, which makes him automatically dangerous. (2) DAYLIGHT RUSH shows two very good miles in a row from the 10-hole and can't be dismissed here. (1) IMSPORTY has raced better in his last two and should be good for a minor share.

Race 10

(7) SECRECY was a sharp winner two back then no match for the streaking Sintra last time. He should be a strong contender here from close range. (3) PIRANHA has been setting some rapid splits at Scioto and will no doubt be sent hard here by Henry and dare his rivals to catch him. (4) MAYFIELD DUKE is logical to hit the Tri or Super, but unlikely to break his maiden in this field. (9) ARCHANGEL THREE will likely be winding up from far back here and passing many of these down the lane.

[DRF HARNESS LIVE: Real-time insights from the DRF Harness team this Saturday at 7:00 p.m.]