05/05/2015 4:01PM

Mohawk: Thursday 5/7 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


1,7/1,2,3,4,10/5,9/2,6 = $40


LATE $1 PICK 4 TICKET: 2,6/3,4,8/5,8,9/1,4 = $36

MEET STATS: 57 - 170 / $320.40 BEST BETS: 9 - 15 / $29.30

SPOT PLAYS: 2 - 13 / $32.60

Best Bet: LIVING HISTORY (7th)


Race 1

(7) HALO EFFECT is out of a millionaire dam that won the 2007 filly Kentucky Futurity that has already produced a winner. This one may have a lot more than she showed in the qualifier; top call. (4) SUMTHINTOTALKABOUT qualified well on the 1st with hopples for the first time and uses that equipment here, too. (6) THOUGHTFUL LEADER showed good late speed in her debut and should improve here.

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Race 2

(5) MAC RAIDER made two moves to the front then failed to last in a rapid mile for the class. He should be able to build off that 2015 debut. (6) DEES ROCKETMAN closed stoutly to finish a strong second in his season's debut and will get there one of these times soon. (4) ARTFUL WAY fired off a rapid kicker in his qualifier and it's possible he could be much faster than he was last year.

Race 3

(1) NOBLE LEGEND didn't show that much in his debut but the one time Kadabra was bred to his dam it produced a 16-time winner that finished in the money 51 times in 97 races; another chance for this one. (7) PISCEAN comes in off a decent qualifier and gets Lasix; contender. (8) KADDY's dam also produced a good winner the only time she was bred to Kadabra previously; beware.

Race 4

(7) OUTLIER drops into a claimer for the first time and faces a generally weak group; looks solid. (1) THRILL CHASER had speed both early and late in his mile last week and looks like the one to beat but he is terribly win-shy. (6) DEBBIES MACH continues to show good speed early then fade. She might do better if she could land in the pocket once early.

Race 5

(2) STANDING MY GROUND comes off two breaks but gets Filion back here. He did better with him in March; top call in a head-scratcher. (1) MIDFIELD MAGIC also has gate issues but has more than enough speed to take this group if he stays trotting. (3) LEXUS HELIOS has been showing good speed then tiring late. He's another possibility in a pick 4 leg you should go deep in.

Race 6

(5) CROWN ISLE put up one of the fastest first 1/4's this year then just kept right on going; tough customer right back. (9) CANADIAN EDITION made two moves and just failed to last. He was claimed and looks like the main foe to the choice here. (10) FOREGO THE CIGAR stormed home to just miss to the choice at long odds. The 10-hole does him no favors but he should be coming late again.

Race 7

(2) LIVING HISTORY was full of pace in the lane last time and once clear roared by to win comfortably. She steps into a generally soft NW2 field and looks good to repeat. (6) MUCH ADOO showed good late speed off a 17-day break now returns to a 7-day cycle; the main threat. (5) SHESAGAMEMAJOR has been showing steady improvement for trainer Brethour who typically starts them out slowly. She's another that's in with a chance.

Race 8

(8) SOUTHWIND GINGER moves into the potent Adams barn for her 2015 debut and meets a field she can handle. (3) BET ER ALL had good late speed in both of her qualifiers and could be read to contend right away. (4) WARAWEE QUICK took big action at the windows then showed little in her debut. Perhaps the track condition was a contributing factor.

Race 9

(9) INTENDED STYLE has been winning in similar classes at Flamboro now moves here off the claim by a high % outfit; top call. (5) RAVE ON offered little first off the claim from the 10-hole but should be heard from here from the middle of the gate. (8) UNIQUE BARAN produced a huge mile when claimed out of town but these are a lot tougher.

Race 10

(1) FLOAT ON BY looks like she holds a major class edge here and is sent out by Menary who had three winners Monday night and has been going great guns at this meet. (4) WINDSUN CHANEL was on too much cover in a slowish pace and couldn't gain much when they flew home. She looks like a contender here. (3) WARAWEE QUALLY finally broke her maiden then took a break. She has never missed the board in her 11-race career. (9) MO MOLLY BLUE CHIP hinted at some ability last season and could close for a share here. (2) NATIONALIZE exits the same dash as Windsun Chanel and suffered the same fate. She should share here.

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