05/19/2015 3:40PM

Mohawk: Thursday 5/21 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4 TICKET:

1,2,4/2,10/5,6,7,10/2,3,9 = $72

 

LATE $1 PICK 4 TICKET: 2,3,9/2,7/2,5/1,3,6,7 = $48

MEET STATS: 80 - 246 / $454.40  BEST BETS: 12 - 22 / $42.50

SPOT PLAYS: 4 - 20 / $40.80

Best Bet: P L IDAHO (9th)

Spot Play: ONE TO DRAW TO (4th)

Race 1

(3) ARIELLA is the first one to race from a dam that finished 2nd in the 2010 Breeders Crown for two-year-old trotting fillies. Zeron likely has big plans for this one, but, she won't be a surprise if she takes these at first asking, either. (9) THOUGHTFUL LEADER was pounded at the windows last time after a good debut race. Miscuing early cost him all hope; threat if flat. (4) ETERNAL QUEST qualified fast enough to be a top contender in a race with few real contenders.

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Race 2

(5) ABBIJADE HANOVER had the tough task of trying to close into an accelerating late pace in her season's debut and showed some good spark in the lane; top call here. (2) COTTONWOOD CREEK is by a local dam that won her debut race and has produced 8 winners of 10 that have raced including multi-millionaire Boulder Creek. This one would be no surprise if she popped at first asking. (3) PUT YOUR BAD ON started the year racing from two 10-holes. Expect to see a dramatic improvement here with the move inside.

Race 3

(4) BOLI is finally hinting at some ability which should be expected considering the only other two times her dam was bred to Kadabra the mating produced winners of $753K and $869K. This one may produce a breakout performance here. (2) HALO EFFECT is also bred to be a very good one and finished rapidly in her debut. She is sure to show more with that one in the books. (5) SETANTA finished just ahead of Halo Effect last time in a much-improved effort and should share here.

Race 4

(2) ONE TO DRAW TO is from a dam that has thrown two foals that have raced and combined for 32 wins and more than $400K in earnings. Trainer Tomlinson has bring shipping them in ready; don't be fooled by the slow qualifier. This one is likely ready to contend immediately. (1) CORSICA HALL raced against some good ones last year and looks ready to roll based on his lone qualifier; the main foe. (7) RUSTYS OVERLOAD paced a faster mile in his most recent qualifier than any of these have raced. He is dangerous here.

Race 5

(10) EVAS GIRL finished fast last out and now goes for team McNair here. She can topple these if pushed fast enough early to get a position close to the front. (2) STONEBRIDGE QUEST, last year's Grassroots champion, looks like the main contender based on her lone qualifier. (1) SOUTHWIND LUNA is capable of a better showing and the post relief should help.

Race 6

(5) SWEET COLT OF MINE's last start is better than it looks as he was trying to close into a rapid final 1/4 for the class and held his own. He could pop at a square price here. (7) GREYSTONE MOE set all the pace and dug in late but fell just short. He is an obvious contender. (10) CLICK BOOM got up late but looked steppy late. He can win with the right trip but from post 10 it may be tough.

Race 7

(2) ADVERSARY SEELSTER drops into a claimer, looks much the best on paper, and is about as win-shy as they come. He likely prevails on class here, but will be a prohibitive price. (3) UNIQUE BARAN was claimed out of a good performance and was competitive on this circuit most of last winter. He looks like the main danger. (9) LITTLE QUICK hinted at better form in his most recent and will be passing horses late here.

Race 8

(2) TYMAL COLOSSUS was claimed by a high % outfit and has hit the exacta in 9 of 14 starts so far this year. He can turn the tables on (9) UNABATING who dropped into claimers for his 2015 debut and though victorious, looked as though he might run at many points of that mile. (3) IMMINENT RESPONSE raced evenly after latching on to excess cover first time over Mohawk. He can threaten these from a better post.

Race 9

(7) P L IDAHO was passed late by one making his 2015 debut. He adds Lasix here and should be able to get back on track vs. these despite missing some time. (2) MR CARROTS was first up against a winner that threw a 26 3/5 final 1/4 at him. This one hung in there will and is the main threat to the choice. (5) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN looks to be improving for trainer Moore who specializes with young horses but this one may be a couple of steps behind the top two at this point.

Race 10

(2) GOT SOME SPARK showed that she had some in her debut, battling back in the lane before going down to a narrow defeat. She gets top call here off that promising effort. (5) TAILWIND HANOVER finished right with the choice on the wire and looks like the main foe here. (4) FRANNY LOVE DAT switches barns to Zeron, who boasts a 20% win average from limited starters.

Race 11

(7) ROETHBLISSBERGER raced much better last time now takes a class plunge and gets Jamieson. He can beat these but may also get overbet; your call. (3) WORLD AWAY is famous for the “drop and pop” and is sure to contend with this class relief. (1) HOPE FOR BADLANDS wasn't that far back in a quick mile on Saturday and should get a big piece of this. (6) CLIC K moves into Johnson's barn here and is likely to drop several seconds off his qualifier; beware. (8) DADDY WARBUCKS is a great horse to use to fill minor exotic wager slots and he is likely to be passing several of these late.

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