04/14/2015 3:42PM

Mohawk: Thursday 4/16 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

7/7,8,9/4,1,0/1,3,6=$18

 

LATE $1 PICK 4: 1,3,6/3,6,8/7/2,4,9,10=$36

MEET STATS: 13 - 42 / $58.70  BEST BETS: 4 - 4 / $13.30

SPOT PLAYS: 0 - 4 / $0.00

Best Bet: BLACK QUEEN (4th)

Spot Play: WORLD CLASS IZZY (8th)

Race 1

(7) LADYONE showed good speed one occasion last season - when she behaved - now gets turned over to trainer Bax who excels with young trotters. Top call in the opener. (4) JLS TOO HOT TAJ showed promise in her debut last year then it looked like something went wrong in her next start. She was put away and returns off a good qualifying mile. (1) TYMAL SIGNATURE continues to earn checks when she stays flat but isn't the greatest win bet you'll find on the card.

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Race 2

(5) MAKE WAY drops back to a spot where she's boss if driven correctly. She'll be tough to beat here. (4) DEBBIES MACH gets post relief tonight and should be right in the thick of things throughout here. (6) FROSTY DELIGHT closed powerfully for 2nd last week but often comes too late after the winner has been decided. A minor award appears to be her ceiling here.

Race 3

(1) HAPE won the final of the Autumn Series then took a break. She looks solid here if she minds her manners. (3) MAGIC SHELLEY showed some talent last year and has two clean qualifying lines to build on here. She is a top threat if she stays flat. (2) ALLIES GIFT already has two wins in 3 tries this campaign, most recently a big first-over effort at Flamboro; contender.

Race 4

(7) BLACK QUEEN was beaten by one last week who is undefeated and shows great promise. Tonight should be her graduation party. (8) MISS SANGRIA left hard and closed well again for 2nd over an off track last week. She is improving and dangerous. (4) SHESAGAMEMAJOR has taken action at the windows in both starts but shown little. She could wake up here moving inside.

Race 5

(9) TYMAL COLLOSUS brushed and crushed last week and these don't look much tougher; top call. (7) ARCTIC TALE has beaten better only two months ago so the $12K tag is a bit of a red flag; mixed signals. (8) THUNDERAWAY has been going great guns at London and gets red-hot pilot McNair here; using.

Race 6

(4) JETTINS DRAGON took a big drop and was claimed as expected. He did well that night to close from 10th to 4th on a wet track. His main foes draw farthest outside so he could get the job done here. (10) LOST IN PANSLATION was claimed off a near miss in the same dash and should be all systems go for his new connections even from out there. (9) SHIPPS XPECTANCY beat the top two off a sweet following trip. A repeat of that trip is unlikely here.

Race 7

(1) WINDSUN CHANEL closed rapidly into an accelerating late pace and is clearly much better now then when she was laid up last fall; top billing. (6) TWIN B SWEETHEART finally gets to leave from the middle of the gate and should get put into play early here; using. (3) FRANNY LOVE DAT hasn't been able to breakthrough for her maiden victory and is more likely for a minor share again here.

Race 8

(3) WORLD CLASS IZZY is out of a dam that has produced two winners from two that have raced, one of which took a mark of 1:52 3/5. She closed well over an off track in here lone qualifier and could get it done at a good price here. (6) MUSCLE MACK was an easy winner out of town and should be formidable first time over the big track. (8) BALLYKEEL BOMBER should be there if he stays flat - which looks like a big if for most of these.

Race 9

(7) BAD OUTLAW won so easily first time in Montini's barn that it's hard to see him getting beat here vs. most of the ones he beat last week. Top call at a likely short price. (2) CAPELO tried the top one briefly on the backside but didn't have much fight to offer. Waples may keep him covered up on the inside here and come late. (4) MOTOR SHARK moves into Riley's barn after showing moderate improvement I n his last couple at Rideau. He can round out the tri or super here.

Race 10

(2) BIG MAGICK raced solidly in his debut, closing late to nab 2nd behind a dominant winner. He stands a good chance of graduating here. (4) ADORE HIM showed little from the outside is his debut but should benefit from that start and be much closer here. (9) PL IDAHO shows flashes of crazy wicked speed and if he stays flat will be very hard to beat; that is not a given however. (10) SIERRA MADRE qualified well over an off track and can get a piece of this even from out there. (6) GIVE EM BACK has shown good speed on occasion and sometimes hangs around for a slice.

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