10/18/2016 5:00PM

Mohawk: Thursday 10/20 Analysis


Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


PICK 5: 1,3/5,6/6,8/1,4,8/1,4,5 = $14.40

EARLY PICK 4: 1,4,8/1,4,5/1,2,4/4 = $27

LATE PICK 4: 4/2,3,6,9/2,8/1,3,5,6 = $32

MEET STATS: 432 - 1270 / $2260.00   BEST BETS: 69 - 116 / $215.70

SPOT PLAYS: 28 - 116 / $179.10

Best Bet: SAFEKEEPING (7th)

Spot Play: BILLS FELLA (1st)

Race 1

(3) BILLS FELLA should appreciate the shorter field here and make a quick and decisive move at some point; top call. (1) OSBORNE SEELSTER should get another good trip similar to the one he got last week; using. (2) REBELLIOUS can rebound with a contending effort here if he stays flat. (4) MASTER THE VIEW seems likely to fill one of the bottom exotics rungs.

Race 2

(6) MC MACH will take plenty of action here off his excellent OSS Gold mile on October 1st, and rightfully so, but his gait issues also are a cause for concern; slight nod. (5) DREAMFAIR B J looks like the main danger off his blowout win in the opening leg of this series. (2) MACH DÉJÀ VU broke his maiden in the opening leg here last week, but the top two may be too good for him here. (1) TREMENDOUS PLAY can sit a good following trip and take a slice.

Race 3

(6) RADICAL ROAD can get back on track here after blowing up early at a very short price last week. (8) SCENE A MAGICIAN is in excellent form with three wins in his last five starts; using. (2) VESUVIO BI was a two-move winner vs. weaker last week; smaller share predicted this time. (9) RESITA will likely be well backed early but she can close for a smaller share.

Race 4

(1) THE AVENGER woke up with a big effort last week and he could get another good setup for his late charge again; call to repeat. (4) IMSPORTY got burned early from post 10 and he paid for it late. He should get a better trip here. (8) NOTETOSELF HANOVER was a good second behind the choice last time. He's not out of this, but the outer post could hurt. (10) EMPEROR will be passing horses late from far back.

Race 5

(5) WORK THAT MAGIC is in solid form and she should get another good trip up near the front here; slight nod. (1) ABSOLUT SEELSTER comes off a sharp maiden-breaking score and the rail helps her chances here on the move up to non-winners of two. (4) SUNRISE AVENUE will take lots of action at the windows based on recent company lines, but she has missed four weeks; your call. (8) PROFOUND PATIENCE will be passing horses late and she could better this placing if she finds live cover to follow.

Race 6

(1) WHO SAID NOT TO draws inside and the rival that has beaten her in both starts isn't in here; top call. (2) D M REACHER will also benefit from post relief here; expect to see more aggression from this colt. (4) CENTURY CHURCHILL was live last week, but lacked room at a critical point in the race. He will get there one of these times; maybe tonight. (6) MR MATCH ON BEACH qualified fast enough on October 4th to suggest he can be competitive here.

Race 7

(4) SAFEKEEPING looks much the best in here and she shouldn't have much trouble doubling up, again at a short price. (7) TRUMPETS started up too late last week. She can complete the exacta here if she is put into play earlier. (5) RECREATE is another that can make the board if he is put into the race earlier. (1) FRENCH BASTILLE should be able to take a share off a following trip leaving from the innermost post here.

Race 8

(9) BEACHES BE CRAZY can take this group if she lays closer to the pace and starts her move earlier, but as a 2-year-old in against some sophomores, that is hard to predict. (6) JMR MACH MEL - a $29K Canadian Yearling purchase - qualified well on October 4th and this isn't the toughest spot to debut. (2) PREMIER KARISMA and (3) SKITTLE HANOVER have improving form and are two more to consider for late Pick 4 bets.

Race 9

(8) HILL OF A COLT raced okay in some rapid miles at Lexington. He can resume his winning ways here. (2) MAGICAL VALENTINE made an aggressive move in the Grassroots Final but she couldn't sustain it. She appears to be the main danger to the choice. (4) DEVILS ADVOCATE looked much better early in the mile last week. Vanderkemp could surprise with her one of these weeks. (7) WINDSONG MAGIC should take a minor award again.

Race 10

(6) CONNIE MACH roared home to win her last; call to repeat. (3) OBVIOUS BLUE CHIP faces easier here, but she is quite often driven carefully which makes her a tough one to figure. (5) MISTY DE VIE flies home every week. She is dangerous if kept close enough to the front. (1) MISS JONES SHOOTER has a great in-the-money record. She should take a piece of this. (2) ITSALLABOUTTHEBASS adds Lasix, which should bring improvement.

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