09/03/2015 3:31PM

Mohawk: Saturday 9/5 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 8 - $100,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

 

EARLY PICK 4:

3,5,9,10/2,4,5/4/2,4 = $24

LATE PICK 4: 2,3,4,5/2/3,4,6/1,6,8,9

MEET STATS: 278 - 903 / $1566.20 BEST BETS: 38 - 81 / $126.30

SPOT PLAYS: 11 - 78 / $86.80

Best Bet: SPLIT THE HOUSE (6th)

Spot Play: ARTHUR BLUE CHIP (4th)

Race 1

(3) REAL KID made a middle move last week chasing the very tough Betting Line then tired in the lane. He will be a good price here and gets a slight nod in a wide-open Metro Stakes Consolation. (6) SOSSYS KING KONG has shown good closing speed in every mile and should be dangerous here from close range. (7) RODEO ROCK finished slightly ahead of the choice last time and is one of many in with a chance here.

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Race 2

(7) CANEPA HANOVER has faced the best all year and should handle this group as long as he stays flat throughout. (3) DON'T RUSH saves his best for the biggest races and is most likely to take advantage if the choice falters. (6) IRON had a useful tightener here last week and can get a good share of this.

Race 3

(2) ELLIS PARK was right up on the pace for most of his Canadian Pacing Derby elim before tiring and just missing the final. Waples has done well with him and should have him in a good spot to pounce late. (7) DUC DORLEANS has won two straight on the lead but has been able to steal breathers in the 2nd 1/4 both times. He may not get that luxury this time. (6) ODDS ON EQUULEUS sat the pocket last time but couldn't chase down the leader who had too much in reserve. He's capable of taking these off the right trip.

Race 4

(3) ARTHUR BLUE CHIP, the country's top two-year-old in 2013, raced well from the 10-hole in his comeback race last week and can build off that here. He should be able to get a better trip and is capable of taking this if not first-over again. (5) PRESCOTTS HOPE continues to race tough and produce big speed. He's the one to beat. (9) ALEXAS JACKPOT came home in :53 1/5 in the Preferred last week and will be a big threat if Zeron can get him into the top five early.

Race 5

(5) STERLING COOPER was pushed to setting some swift fractions Monday night and held on well considering. He can wire these with better rating. (4) CZAR SEELSTER was sharp in defeat last week, just about chasing down the leader in an accelerating late pace. He's dangerous here. (2) PRINCE CLYDE broke before the start last time when dropped to this class and heavily-favored. He can bounce back and challenge here if flat.

Race 6

(4) SPLIT THE HOUSE has won against all but the very best so far in his career and deserves top call despite the presence of (2) REVEREND HANOVER HERE. The latter will need a lifetime-best performance to get close to the choice here, which also isn't out of the question. (5) THE WAYFARING MAN has been racing very well the past month and could sneak by late if the top two choices get into a speed duel mid-race.

Race 7

(4) CONTROL THE MOMENT comes into the Metro Stakes Final with a perfect record and hasn't really been tested late in any of his miles. He can race effectively in any style the driver chooses which is a big advantage here; top call. (2) BETTING LINE was impressive in his elimination win and is sure to try to take these down the road. He will have to deal with the choice at some point, however. (3) VORACITY just got up late in the slowest elimination and likely will find the top two too tough here. (10) AMERICAN PASSPORT is one of the best horses in here and would have been placed higher if he had a better post. Keep him in mind when making exotic bets.

Race 8

(2) STATE TREASURER showed some grit digging in late off a tough trip on a wet track last week. He is likely to improve on a fast track and gets top billing here in the Canadian Pacing Derby Final. (5) SHAMBALLA had to play his hand early last week and got picked off late by the pocket-sitter. He's more dangerous coming off a helmet and might motor by all of them late here; beware. (4) ALL BETS OFF just failed to get past the choice late and has been very sharp the past month; another to consider for pick 4 tickets. (3) JK ENDOFANERA was aggressively driven early which led to a good trip in the pocket and an elimination victory. He's another in with a shot in what should be a great race.

Race 9

(2) MUSCLE DIAMOND has raced great in all but his Hambletonian elimination where he suffered a long trip and broke stride late. He'll be tough to beat here. (5) LUCK O THE IRISH keeps winning and keeps getting faster in doing so. He should get a big share of this $115K purse. (4) WHOM SHALL I FEAR has been keeping good company all year and has shown the necessary speed and class to take this; another contender.

Race 10

(3) THATSOVERYVERYNICE already has two sub-1:52 winning miles in her short career and is capable of winning off what seems to be any trip. Slight nod to her over (4) L A DELIGHT, who is 7 for 8 lifetime and the other obvious contender in this Shes A Great Lady Final. (6) DARLINONTHEBEACH has an eye-catching late move last week to nail down 2nd and isn't without a shot, although the top two look very tough here.

Race 11

(8) GLAMOUR SEELSTER uncorked a wild late rally last time to just miss. She can mow these down late if close enough. (1) THE SHOW RETURNS did well here last summer and should get a good trip starting from the inside here. (6) INVEST IN ART comes off a swift win at Pocono and will likely be overbet off that mile.

Race 12

(4) BURNING SHORE used a :26 flat third 1/4 to blow past his rivals last time and record a new life's mark. A repeat of anything close to that should take this. (6) LETS ROCK TOGETHER showed little last time but now returns to a 7-day cycle and should go much better here. (2) SOUTHWIND AMAZON parlayed a good trip into a win last week in this class and should get another good trip here.

Race 13

(3) HIS BOY ELROY is always passing horses late and should get a good pace to chase here. (6) WINDSONG LIGHTNING tried Reverend Hanover first up last week which turned out to be a mistake. He's another with a great late kick when it's used correctly. He should get a good piece of this. (8) MIKES POWERHOUSE raced evenly in an OSS Gold last time but should be a speed threat here. (5) MOONWRITER races better for Filion - as do many horses - and is another threat here. (9) A MARCOU STORY has been firing home quickly in every start and should be passing most of these late.

[ YONKERS: Watch the $500K Yonkers Trot and $500K Messenger Pace Saturday--Live on DRF!]