09/27/2012 4:06PM

Mohawk: Saturday 9/29 Analysis


Best Bet: LIFEOFTHEOLDBOY (2nd)     Spot Play: BLENDED WHISKEY (4th)

Race 1

This type of race is always tough to handicap, but I went with (2) RATE EXCHANGE. A very classy veteran who once again is dropping down in class and has a good post. (9) SOULFUL DELIGHT has been knocking on the door at this level and comes from a credible barn. (8) PAIGING KADABRA didn't shake loose until late last week to finish fifth. He could be the `dark' horse in the race.

Race 2

(2) LIFEOFTHEOLDBOY has been nothing short of spectacular at this level. He will be the heavy favourite, no question. (8) SPARTACUS JIM finished second to LIFEOFTHEOLDBOY just two starts ago. I think he's his biggest threat. (5) CAMPASSER has been relatively consistent at this level despite just two wins this season.

Race 3

(5) CATCH THE DREAM might be a bit of a longshot play, but I can't count him out. He's trotted in 1:54 and that should win this conditioned event. (1) FALCOR BLUESTONE has a solid record this season. He'll need to step up even more to compete at this level. (6) UNABATING suffered a first-over trip last week, but still finished strong to hang on for third. I'm looking for a repeat effort.

Race 4

(8) BLENDED WHISKEY cleared past the half at Kawartha and drove away from his rivals to score a commanding victory. Any type of performance like that should be very competitive at this level.  (7) HIGH NOON caught my attention last week, despite finishing fourth. I think he'll be even better now that he's back on regular rotation. (1) WHIPPET GOOD has been on a bit of a roll in his past three starts. He draws inside and I think he'll make the most of it.

Race 5

(5) THATLL BE FRANNY gets some needed class relief. I'm going to overlook her uncharacteristic break last week. She's won at a high level. (8) SWEET HEDGE as been inconsistent this season, but she was solid last week from post 10. This could be a turning point. (6) THREE CHARMS also drops down in class. She's had a credible campaign and I'd expect minimal value on her.

Race 6

(1) GROOM HANOVER went a very tough trip last week and had an excuse to get tired late. I admire his front-end tactics and has drawn post one. (3) CELEBRITY COWBOY might get overlooked in some yes, but not mine. I feel he's just rounding into form. (10) CHAT CHAT returns to Moreau's barn and he has an excellent reputation for first-time starters. Post ten doesn't bother me with her gate-speed.

Race 7

(1) BULLET SPEED has been pacing in 1:50 and change and when draws inside has proven to be a factor. He's certainly due for a win. (4) THEPANINSULAHOTEL seems to be getting cheques, but not stepping up much more than that. I'm looking for him to step up and offer value. (9) IDEAL MATTERS comes from a hot barn and has proven he's a contender. This is a wide-open race in my opinion, so I expect a high payout.

Race 8

(4) STRIKE AN ATTITUDE is just shy of $1 million in career earnings and what better way to celebrate that with a victory. She was terrific last week and I feel she's the horse to beat. (5) D GS TINKERBELL has over a $100K earned this season, more than any other horse in this field. She's also coming off a victory. I can't overlook that. (7) RADAR CONTACT is moving down in class, but she hasn't been racing the best in my opinion. It will be interesting to see how she does at this level.

Race 9

(4) ARACACHE HANOVER will get lots of attention after his latest victory. I expect him to be in the mix through a slow pace, given the short field. (2) ROCKINCAM was very impressive at Delaware with a wicked back-half. He might be your post time favourite, but I'm going to try and get him beat. (5) BETTOR AGAIN is the `dark' horse in the field in my opinion. If they go fast fractions, I feel he can pick everyone off late, just like his September 8 raceline.

Race 10

(7) MY MAN CHARLEY is going to be my longshot play. He's the only horse in the field coming off a victory in this wide-open affair. (5) ODYSSEUS BLUECHIP is a much better horse than he's showing. He's won at a higher level and this is a light field. (1) ROCINANTE has been racing more consistent in his last five lines. With a post one start, I think he's a playable option.

Race 11

(1) UP THE CREDIT was my longshot pick last week in the Preferred, but finished fourth. He's down in class, but he certainly can handle this field. Don't forget, he did capture the North America Cup last season. (8) DALHOUSIE DAVE is always in the mix for O'Sullivan. You might even get value on him. (7) MACH DREAMER made an uncharacteristic break last week. I'm going to overlook that and use him on my ticket. Don't overlook his 1:49 miles.

Race 12

(8) BETTER GET READY went a tough trip last week, but has proven the horse to beat three starts prior. He can get off the gate well and will likely be your post time favourite. (2) MACHAPELO has been more consistent in his last three starts and I'm looking for him to step up even more. (1) HIDDEN POTENTIAL is a longshot play, but I'm admiring his 1:51 4/5 effort at Georgian Downs four starts ago.

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