09/20/2012 3:20PM

Mohawk: Saturday 9/22 Analysis


Best Bet: TARPON HANOVER (10th)      Spot Play: UP THE CREDIT (9th)

Race 1

(6) WORLD CUP went a tough first-over trip last start at Freehold. He'll likely be the post time favourite and he should be. (5) FALCON BLUESTONE will debut for new trainer Ben Baillargeon. I'm looking for a much improved effort. (1) REVEN UP has posted back-to-back scores, but I'm going to try and get him beat from post one.

Race 2

(7) MONTE CRISTO closed like a freight train last week to finish third. In a short field like this, I think he'll be very competitive. (4) ST LADS HE MAN made an uncharacteristic break last week, but is a very competitive horse at this level. Don't leave him off your ticket. (6) SECRETSOTHERNEPHEW raced very well two starts ago. I'm looking for a repeat effort.

Race 3

(1) MACH PRIDE set the fractions for (8) WINDSONG JACK's victory last start. On the big track, I'm going to go with MACH PRIDE over WINDSONG JACK. I think he's the better horse. (6) UP UP AND OUT has been getting better with every start. Other than the top two horses, it's wide open for third.

Race 4

(5) ALED HANOVER closed well last week and draws a better post to work with at the same level. (6) ROCINANTE has won at a much higher level before. He's been pacing some solid miles as of late. I admire his durability. (9) WHIPPET GOOD was my selection last week and got rewarded. He's in the same class, but a tougher field I think.

Race 5

(8) LUCKYCHARM HANOVER was a top three-year-old last season and is looking to regain his form. A key part of my selection is O'Sullivan listed as trainer. (10) GROOM HANOVER set his lifetime best last week. He's got post 10 to deal with, but I think he can get a piece of it.

Race 6

(7) WARRAWEE NEEDY will no doubt be the heavy favourite in this race and he should be. It appears he's back to his old self with his two dominating victories. (4) HARD TO MACH is a consistent performer in the OSS. He'll likely hit the top three. (1) I FOUND MY BEACH had no luck in the Simcoe, but he's back at a level where I feel he can be a threat every week.

Race 7

Jamieson said that's the best (1) SPEED AGAIN has been all year. If he shows a repeat effort, he's a winner. (9) ROCKIN FINISH was a little over his head in his last start, but is a major threat at this level.  You have to admire his final quarters. (2) MYBROTHERGEORGE showed a disappointing effort last start with a terrible final quarter. I'm going to give him an excuse for that effort and look for a rebound performance.

Race 8

Both (2) DROP THE BALL and (1) PUT ON A SHOW)are going to take lots of money in this event. I'm going to go with DROP THE BALL. You have to watch her final quarter sprint to fully appreciate her performance. (4) ANNDROVETTE loves to set the pace and I wouldn't be surprised to see it again. She can certainly win at this level as well.

Race 9

My longshot play of the night is (5) UP THE CREDIT. He needed racing room last start and was running over horses at the finish. He could provide a great payout. (9) ST ELMO HERO has posted just one win this season, but has been finishing his miles a lot stronger than beginning of the year. (4) CLASSIC ROCK NROLL looks like he might of lost his edge, but is always a threat at this level. Don't count him out.

Race 10

(9) TARPON HANOVER easily has the most money made in this field. He's without a doubt the horse to beat. (2) SLIGHT TOUCH is the other Menary entry and he's been racing very well this season. He's my pick for second based on his big effort last start. (6) MACH SET GO will have to jump up even more, but I think he can do it. This field is not that deep in talent.

Race 11

(4) DREAMFAIR ETERNAL is the class of this field. Although she's tailed off this season, I think she can win again. (1) THATLL BE FRANNY closed very well last week to finish fifth. She's due for a trip to work out in her favour. (7) IDEAL NEWTON has a start under her belt on this circuit. I think she will improve off that.

Race 12

(1) IDEAL RACE has been knocking on the door in his last few starts. He's down in class and should capitalize off that. (8) YANKEES IN SIX shows a wicked final quarter over Vernon Downs. You can't count him out off his latest racelines. (2) THEPANINSULAHOTEL is a bit of a longshot play, but with the right trip, he's a factor.

Race 13

(6) HARE CRAFT has won at a higher level in the past and loves to come from off the pace. He's got a great kick coming for home and finally draws a solid post position. (2) ANDERLECT got tired late in the mile last week, but draws another good post to work with. I'd like to see him get a trip. (10) IM FEELIN GOOD can overcome post 10 and is a threat at this level. Overall, I feel this is a great wagering race.

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