09/15/2016 2:58PM

Mohawk: Saturday 9/17 Analysis

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Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

 

MEET STATS: 346 - 1036 / $1785.50  BEST BETS: 57 - 95 / $179.40

SPOT PLAYS: 20 - 95 / $119.10

20-CENT PICK 5: 4/4/1,4,6,8/1,5,6,8/3,4,5,8 = $12.80

EARLY PICK 4: 1,5,6,8/3,4,5,8/3,4,5/4 = $48

LATE PICK 4: 3,4,7/3,4/3,4/5,8 = $24

Best Bet: ARIANA G (2nd)

Spot Play: BRINGHOME THEBLUE (6th)

Race 1

(4) BUGGER BRUISER set honest splits on his way to a sharp win in this class two back. Dropping back down here he should be very tough again. (2) ROCK N ROLL LEGACY was shut off halfway down the stretch last week, altered course then got up to win anyway at a huge price. He was aided by a rapid pace then but is in sharp form and can sit another good trip here. (1) VEGAS ROCKS was first up into a quick pace last week and backed up as chalk. He can race much better here and likely will. (6) HES A SENSATION has improving form and can close for a share here.

[DRF HARNESS LIVE: Real-time insights from the DRF Harness team this Saturday at 7:00 p.m.]

Race 2

(4) ARIANA G shows no signs of slowing down and she looks like a Pick 5 single here. (2) THAT'S ALL MONI was a sharp first-up winner in the slower elimination but she will still need to move up at least a couple of lengths here to take down the choice. (9) DREAM TOGETHER looks best of the rest and could complete a puny Trifecta here. (7) WINTER SWEET FROST should take a minor share after racing from close range here.

Race 3

(1) TRACEUR HANOVER was very impressive winning his most recent start and he could jump up here in the top class and win again at a decent price considering his current sharpness. (8) SHAMBALLA is the obvious class of the field but this post does him no favors and could lead to him being upset. (4) ELLIS PARK is always in the thick of things and he could get a great trip here form this post. (6) NICKLE BAG closed for the win on a cool night last week and he will likely be more prominent in the fall and winter as he was last year.

Race 4

(5) ASAP HANOVER looked like a winner until very late in the mile last week. He retains Tetrick here and is one of many sharp horses that can win here. (6) WAZZUP WAZZUP rode the choice's cover to win last week and he has to be considered again in his sharp form. (8) SINTRA and (1) GERRIES SPORT are both very capable sophomores but they do their best work in sires stakes against their own age group and typically come up with their best performances in those miles; your call.

Race 5

(8) SIGNAL HILL has looked better in every one of his last three starts after a slow start to his career. Alagna continues to run hot; slight nod. (3) WHAT THE HILL was released to the front by the choice in a 59 flat middle 1/2 then kept that one at bay by outsprinting him. He is a top contender here but he may be over bet off that somewhat east trip. (4) KING ON THE HILL closes well every week. He should get a good piece of this. (5) VICTOR GIO IT is capable but his gait issues of late is worrisome.

Race 6

(4) BRINGHOME THEBLUE was an aggressive winner last time he raced in this class. I would expect him to be put into this race early and try to strike from close range turning home. (3) VELOCITY DRIVEN also used an aggressive approach to win last time he raced in this class. He looks like the main threat to the choice. (5) PRINCE CLYDE survived some big fractions last week but he was picked off late by a rival that rode the inside until the last few strides. He is a must-use in the Pick 4 off that top effort. (6) SURPRISE HANOVER races better in this class and can close for a share here.

Race 7

This edition of the Maple Leaf Trot appears to be a two-horse race between (4) HANNELORE HANOVER - the superstar mare - and (1) RESOLVE, who looked super winning here last week in his elim. I'll give the nod to the mare who has been nothing short of brilliant all year and is driven with great confidence by Gingras. (7) WINDSUN REVENGE has never been better and he offers some exotics value here. (10) SHAKE IT CERRY raced extremely well first-over last week, but this post likely dooms her to taking a smaller share.

Race 8

(7) KATIE SAID gave Lady Shadow a decent tussle last week in a super effort. She comes into this Milton elimination as sharp as can be and gets top billing here. (3) SOLAR SISTER has developed into one of the top pacing mares on the continent and will likely be odds-on here, but the three weeks off could make her just a bit rusty and vulnerable late in the mile here. (4) VENUS DELIGHT - the defending Milton champion - loves this track and she can't be discounted. (2) WAASMULA is fresh and looks ready to do some serious pacing; consider.

Race 9

(4) CAPRICE HILL keeps getting faster every race and she will be hard to knock off here at a short price. (3) FLOWERS N SONGS trotted a big third 1/4 to bottom out the field last week. Having Gingras at the controls makes her more dangerous. (6) ROYAL CHARM is capable of a big late move if she is in the right position turning home. Consider her for your exacta and tri bets here. (1) EMOTICON HANOVER rarely misses the board and she should get a good trip here.

Race 10

(4) MARION MARAUDER shrugged off a third 1/4 easily and won as he pleased with the plugs still in last week. He is the current King of this hill and he will be tough to overthrow here. (3) BAR HOPPING was a sharp winner of the other elimination and he can give the choice a run for his money here. (1) SOUTHWIND FRANK didn't put up much of a fight last week and he would have to be much better here to threaten the top two - although that is not impossible. (7) WINTER HARBOR has progressed rapidly the past few starts. You could find worse longshot plays than this colt.

Race 11

(8) LADY SHADOW looked super winning here last week and will be very tough to knock off at a short price here. (5) BEDROOMCONFESSIONS stayed in last week then closed some ground late. If she could land in Lady Shadow's pocket right at the start here, she would have a puncher's chance at upsetting for a hot barn. (4) YAGONNAKISSMEORNOT has raced well here in this race in the past and is worth a look here. (1) OUR HOT MAJORETTE was sensational last week but this is a huge jump in class; minor share predicted.

Race 12

(2) EXEMPLAR drops in class again here and he should get involved early. It wouldn't be a shock to see him leading turning home; top call. (5) MYSTERY BET was too far back last time when overbet and he couldn't bridge the gap completely late in the mile. He is capable even stepping up in class and his price is sure to be better here. (9) SEVERUS HANOVER has surprised with Jamieson driving a few times in the past. Don't be surprised if he makes front before the turn here which could make him dangerous at a big price. (6) CHARLIE IS A JOKER fits well here and could easily better this placing.

Race 13

(7) LINDY BEACH has been sensational in both 2016 starts and there's no reason to think his winning streak will be broken here. (9) CAROLINA HURRICANE has raced decently vs. better and he should be an exacta factor here. (3) BEST TO HURST has built up a good record in sires stakes down south and he can take a piece of this. (4) REEL is worthy of exotics consideration debuting in Moreau's barn here. (8) ADORE HIM can close from far back and take a smaller share at a price here.

[DRF HARNESS LIVE: FREE LIVE VIDEO & real-time coverage of the Jugette & Little Brown Jug cards--Wed. (9/21) & Thurs. (9/22).]