09/13/2012 2:55PM

Mohawk: Saturday 9/15 Analysis

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MEET STATS: 19 - 50 / $86.00

Best Bet: To Dream On (3rd)    Spot Play: Major Hottie (6th)

Race 1

(6) LOOKINFORADVENTURE looks like he’s starting to find his best stride. After a pair of second-place efforts at this level, I feel he’s the horse to beat. (3) TWIN B WARRIOR will be a bit of a longshot, but he’s got another favorable post and I hope he gets the same type of drive. (1) WATERMELONWINE gets much needed post relief and after his second-place finish last start from post seven, he’s a contender.

Race 2

How do you go against (7) PUT ON A SHOW? There’s no doubt she will be the heavy favorite and rightfully so. If there is one horse who can beat her, I think it’s (6) DROP THE BALL. She has been spectacular this season and is coming off a win. (1) KRISPY APPLE has also had a very credible season, but I’m not sure she’s ready to step it up another notch.

Race 3

(4) TO DREAM ON has been nothing short of spectacular this season. I can’t see her getting beat unless she makes a break. (2) BEE A MAGICIAN is the candidate who could offer TO DREAM ON her first career loss. I hope she’s near the front to potentially give the minor upset. I was really impressed with (3) SHARED PAST’s effort last week. She was timed the same as BEE A MAGICIAN in the other elim.

Race 4

After going a very tough trip at a much higher level, (1) SPARKY MARK should be able to handle this class. He’s got post one in his favor. (8) WARRAWEE NEEDY finally got his first win of the season last week and looked like his old self. I hope that continues. (6) DALHOUSIE DAVE has posted some terrific final quarters and loves to race from off the pace. He's a longhsot, but if they go fast fractions up front, he's the horse that can pick them off.

Race 5

(5) LIFEOFTHEOLDBOY is at a level where he belongs. He’s always in contention at this level and with a post five start, I expect no different.  Despite a few bad posts, (3) PL EARL has been racing very will. Look at his final quarters, and now he has drawn inside. Don’t overlook him. (1) BATTLESHIP KELLY draws inside and with his gate speed, he should be a top threat. Agostino’s barn has been on a roll lately.

Race 6

(8) MAJOR HOTTIE was simply amazing in his last start. I had him picked for second last week; I won’t make that mistake again. With his terrific gate speed, he should get away well. He does step up in class. (9) BULLET SPEED is at a level where he’s most consistent. Again, with his ability to get off the gate, he’s a factor. (3) SPEED AGAIN has been inconsistent this season, but this is an easier class than the Simcoe.

Race 7

Although he didn’t win his elimination, (1) MARKET SHARE will likely be the post time favorite. He’s the Hambo champ and raced very well last week considering he was out a long way from post nine. He can dictate the race from post one. (3) LITTLE BROWN FOX has been racing very well lately. He’ll likely be the tempo-setter for Yannick Gingras. (4) KNOWS NOTHING raced extremely well last week to beat GYM TAN LAUNDRY by a nose. The addition of Lasix has helped and he’s got home court advantage.

Race 8

(2) ANNDROVETTE has been racing unbelievable this season. Tetrick loves to make speed with her, so I expect her to be put into play early and control the race. (6) REBEKA BAYAMA was a little flat two starts ago, but rebounded nicely last week. Her off the pace tactics will come in handy in this shorter field. (5) GINGER AND FRED has been very consistent this season at the top level. I’m just not sure if she can win.

Race 9

(3) WHEELING N DEALIN is coming into this race undefeated and should be able to handle this field. He controlled the race last week, but that might change in the final. There will be more action. (4) MURMUR HANOVER is on my ticket because he’s a very handy horse with excellent gate speed. I expect him to be put into play with WHEELING N DEALIN early in the race. I’m going to take a shot and hope that (9) ERGO HANOVER behaves himself because if he does, he’s got a great shot. He raced unbelievable last week considering he made a break.

Race 10

(6) BIG MCDEAL is reunited with Jamieson, who seems like he can get the most out of her. She is tackling older mares, but certainly capable of it. (7) SARANDON BLUE CHIP is the other sophomore filly in this race, but by the way she’s been racing this season, I have to have her on my ticket. I was hoping for a higher price on (3) OLE MISS last week, but I think you will get it this week with the other fillies in this event. Don’t count her out.

Race 11

(7) CLASSIC ROCK N ROLL was my pick last week, but he got away to far back in the short field. I expect McNair to put him into the race this week. He made up a ton of ground last week. (4) BETTOR AGAIN sat behind wicked fractions last week, set by (5) FORECLOSURE N. I have both horses slated to finish second and third. Also, don’t count out (3) FRED AND GINGER.

Race 12

(4) ANDERLECT went a tough trip last week as he got parked to the opening quarter then got interfered with. If he gets a cleaner trip, he’s a top contender. (3) IM FEEIN GOOD should be able to handle this class. He’s won at a higher level in the past. He’s just not on his game right now. (7) WAZZUP WAZZUP loves to come from off the pace and with this shorter field, he could pick them off late.

Race 13

(4) WHIPPET GOOD has just one win from 27 starts this season, but he’ll offer lots of value at this level. (7) ALL TIGER N drops down to the bottom condition and has a poor win record this season. He’s got great gate speed and I hope Ouellette uses it. (8) ALED HANOVER moved back into the O’Sullivan barn and will likely be the post time favorite. I’m going to try and get him beat.