09/10/2015 3:20PM

Mohawk: Saturday 9/12 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

1,5,7,8/1,4/1,4,5/3,5 = $48

 

LATE PICK 4: 2,3,4,5/2/1,2,6,7/1 = $16

MEET STATS: 297 - 961 / $1635.20 BEST BETS: 41 - 86 / $135.70

SPOT PLAYS: 12 - 82 / $92.30

Best Bet: L A DELIGHT (9th)

Spot Play: LOOKSLIKEACHPNDALE (3rd)

Race 1

(4) CRAZY WOW beat the Hambletonian winner in his Yonkers Trot elim then broke in the Final. He will likely blast off the gate and look to sit in the pocket of (1) UNCLE LASSE, the likely pacesetter. The latter hasn't won in his last five but has earned close to 1/2 a million this year and is the obvious danger. (6) DON'T RUSH picks up a catch driver here and is one to keep an eye on at a price.

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Race 2

(7) VEGAS ROCKS picked up driver Miller last week and together they obliterated a similar field in a new life's mark. It's hard to see him losing this unless he breaks (see two back). (5) HIS BOY ELROY was chasing the choice from far back and couldn't gain much in those rapid fractions. He could be much closer early here with Waples driving which gives him a chance. (1) MACH CODE almost never misses the ticket and should get a decent trip here.

Race 3

(3) LOOKSLIKEACHPNDALE was very impressive late last week when powering up to just miss. He faces a monumental task here it seems but may be up to it at a big price; call to upset. (4) CANEPA HANOVER was carefully handled by Campbell last week and still won easily. He could be peaking at the right time. (5) PINKMAN hasn't won since taking the Hambletonian and is obviously one of the best in here but may get overbet. (7) THE BANK has been solid all year and can't be discounted, either. This is obviously the tougher split.

Race 4

(7) LETS ROCK TOGETHER makes his 3rd start since a vet scratch-lame and raced better and git closer last week. J Mac will likely have him on the move earlier here. (5) CHAMPAGNE PHIL was just behind the choice last time and should also be closer early with the improved post here. (1) WAZZUP WAZZUP moves in eight posts and should be much closer early which gives him a shot at the top prize here.

Race 5

(1) REVEREND HANOVER made a big move to the front in a quick first 1/2 last week and raced away to a lifetime-best score. Off that mile he'll be tough to beat here. (4) ARTSPEAK - last year's Metro Pace winner here - has quietly amassed more than $400K in earnings this season and is still a formidable foe. (5) SPLIT THE HOUSE couldn't keep pace with the choice last week after being overtaken at the 1/2 but may be sharper here returning to a 7-day cycle.

Race 6

(5) ELLIS PARK was right in the thick of it last week in the Preferred until very late and should be tough here with the class drop. (4) FOREVER JUST is much-improved the past month and had noticeable pace at the wire last week. He would be no surprise here. (1) LUCK BE WITH YOU hasn't been in the sharpest form but could probably win this without his best effort; another to consider. (2) SOUTHWIND AMAZON has worked out two very good trips to take his last two starts but he may also be able to carve out a good trip here, too.

Race 7

(3) DRACHAN HANOVER chased Reverend Hanover around Georgian following a month off and returns quicker here. He is one of several possibilities and it's tough to gauge intent in these three-year-old conditioned races in the middle of stakes season. (5) THINKOFAGAMEPLAN has been racing well in Grassroots company and will likely be up near the pace here early. (8) SPORTSMANSHIP is sharp and can win from on or off the pace; using.

Race 8

(4) E L TITAN trotted to a new life's mark with Tetrick driving two back and he returns here. He also has freshness on his side and will likely be a square price here; top call in a very tough Maple Leaf Trot elim. (5) BEE A MAGICIAN hasn't missed the exacta this year and should prove tough on home soil. (3) JL CRUZE has probably been pointing to this race since the Hambo Maturity and is another tough customer that will take some beating.

Race 9

(2) L A DELIGHT towers over this field and should dominate here at a prohibitive price. (7) GOOD WILL HANOVER has looked great so far but meets a real tigress here; maybe for the exacta. (1) MANIANA was an impressive maiden-breaker last time but faces the best in the country here.

Race 10

(6) RESOLVE ripped off a monster mile in the Vincennes two back then was just short last time to a surging E L Titan at Pocono. He's razor-sharp and gets top call here. (2) OBRIGADO is also in top form as his win from the 8-hole at Yonkers would suggest. He's the one to beat. (7) D ONE has beaten Bee A Magician twice straight and there's no telling how good she is; another to consider on late pick 4 tickets. (1) FLANAGAN MEMORY is also capable but the break in his last is concerning as he had major gait issues when racing here earlier in the year.

Race 11

(1) CONTROL THE MOMENT has yet to taste defeat and it's hard to imagine it happening here with him drawing inside. (9) BETTING LINE made a move for the front last time but was soon under siege form the choice and couldn't threaten thereafter. This looks like a chalky exacta. (2) THE CATAMOUNT KID left hard, took a shuffle then closed a bit against the two above. He can complete the tri.

Race 12

(6) VORACITY took it to the favorites early in the Metro and paid the price. He was still a strong third and should be able to handle this group. (4) NVESTMENT BLUECHIP broke and lost all hope in the Metro. Notice the narrow loss two back to the choice; contender. (2) SOSSYS KING KONG was a beaten favorite in the Metro Consolation in a three-horse photo. A minor share may be his ceiling vs. the two choices here.             

Race 13

(4) PIERCE HANOVER has struggled this season racing against some of the best sophomores at times. You have to think he'll get back on track vs. this mixed bag of lower level conditioned horses. (7) CAMS TUX has been very live his past two starts and should get a good piece here in his current sharp form. (8) THEPANINSULAHOTEL paced his final 3/4 in 1:21 2/5 last week. He should hit the ticket here moving in two slots. (3) JUST PLAIN LUCKY has hit the board in 50% of his 2015 starts and is a good one for the lower exotics rungs. (5) HERE COMES WILLIAM is always a big price and always finishes 4th or 5th it seems.

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