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Mohawk: Saturday 8/29 Analysis
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
EARLY PICK 4:
1,2,3,8/4/5,6,7/1,2,7,9 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 4,6/1,2,3,4,10/2,3,6/4,5 = $60
MEET STATS: 254 - 847 / $1443.20 BEST BETS: 34 - 76 / $113.10
SPOT PLAYS: 10 - 73 / $79.60
Best Bet: STATE TREASURER (5th)
Spot Play: CLEAR VISION (7th)
(3) CANTABS FORTUNE qualified well with trotting hopples removed and followed that up with a pretty good effort last Saturday. If Zeron puts her into the race earlier she can take this group. (6) FLYHAWK EL DURADO won an elimination of the Good Times here last year and was a big earner in New York Sires Stakes. This is the easiest field he has faced in a long, long time and he'll take some beating here. (4) JUSTCALLMERONALD has raced decently in this class in his past two starts and could be even closer off a covered trip.
(5) THATSOVERYVERYNICE was a most impressive first-over winner in the Eternal Camnation last week and it appears the only way she gets beat is if she beats herself with a miscue such as the one at Georgian two back. (1) JK FANNIE left hard, took a shuffle, and then had a hard time keeping up to the choice's cover. She stands a very good chance of completing this exacta, however. (4) THISORTHAT HANOVER has speed and talent but also gait issues. We'll try to beat her out of the exacta here.
(2) L A DELIGHT was so impressive winning last week it's hard to imagine her unbeaten skein ending here. She won't be more than 1/5 though in the win pool. (6) BLUE MOON STRIDE was a solid 2nd to a very sharp winner and is the main competition for the choice here. (3) SHOW TIME HILL was a distant 2nd to the choice last week and is likely for a minor share here.
(2) MILEYS BIG WORLD is unbeaten since the Moreau claim and now steps up to face her stiffest test yet. She may be up to it and let's remember she doesn't need to be on the lead to win. (1) ACT NOW has been facing the best older mares and is an obvious contender but may get overbet and outsprinted early by many of these. She's no lock here despite the class drop. (3) MISS COCO LUCK left hard, took a tuck, and then parlayed a good trip into a clear won. She can be dangerous here up near the pace, too.
(4) STATE TREASURER has ripped off two phenomenal miles in a row and earlier this year paced a similarly devastating mile in the Mohawk Gold Cup. He's likely everyone's early pick 4 single but he's so sharp right now it's hard to see him getting beat. (7) ALL BETS OFF has hit his best stride and paced a Canadian-record tying mile in Quebec last weekend while winning the Prix D'ete. If there's going to be an upsetter in this race, this guy's it. (6) CAPTIVE AUDIENCE was 4th in the Dan Patch - which is looking like a key race - then a very good 2nd in fast time at Pocono. He can get a good piece of this.
(6) AMERICAN PASSPORT left hard, took a shuffle then was visibly motoring at the wire last week when 2nd to the unbeaten division leader. He stands a very good chance of taking this Metro elimination. (5) VORACITY parlayed a perfect trip into a lifetime-best win last Saturday and is a main contender here with his good tactical speed combined with his excellent finishing power. (7) CRUISE PATROL has closed well the past two starts but slow early paces played against him. He has longshot possibilities here.
(9) CLEAR VISION has gone two big first-up trips in his past two and has a history of producing some huge late kicks in this race. The outer post may actually help as he can latch onto some cover then power up late; top call. (1) SHAMBALLA - the local FFA star - has a devastating late kick but may need to produce a lifetime-best effort to win this. It will be interesting to see how the fan favorite does vs. the big boys. (7) JK ENDOFANERA zigged and zagged his way to Dan Patch glory last time out. He should be prominent throughout and a tough rival for the others to hold off.
(6) CONTROL THE MOMENT unleashed a devastating late kick last week to easily keep his unbeaten record intact. He can be placed anywhere and succeed; he'll be tough to beat here. (4) IDEAL ROCKY moved first up into the teeth of the quickest 1/4 of the race and paid the price. He can threaten the choice with a better trip. (8) MANHATTAN BEACH has a 1:51 1/5 mile on a 5/8ths track two back and will for sure be sent here. If he can steal a breather somewhere, look out.
(2) SOUTHWIND AMAZON has faced much better recently with no success. Dropping down gives him a chance to score here. (1) INTENDED STYLE had his win streak broken last time but is one of the most-improved horses on the grounds and shouldn't be taken lightly. (10) ARTHUR BLUE CHIP makes his season's debut for one of the hottest barns around and can't be discounted - even from post 10.
(2) TALK SHOW was picked off late last week by the pocket-sitter but now returns to a 7-day cycle with the benefits of that start over the track; top call. (6) THE CATAMOUT KID stole a :29 1/5 second 1/4 then cruised to an easy won last week. He is a contender but isn't likely to get things that easy here. (3) BETTING LINE was on a roll but then broke at 1/9 in Ottawa and skipped the Nassagaweya last week; mixed signals from this colt.
(4) ODDS ON EQUULEUS was asked for nothing early last week but did have some pace to offer late. He can beat these if put into the race earlier. (5) DUC DORLEANS stole a slow second 1/4 last week then cruised to a new life's mark. This Preferred came up light with the Canadian Pacing Derby elims going tonight, so he is a big factor here. (6) ALEXAS JACKPOT was beaten by the same speedy winner twice straight at Pocono and can factor here vs. mostly lesser.
(2) PRINCE CLYDE missed checks three weeks straight now gets to drop back to a class he has bossed in the past. J Mac will be sending him here for as far as he goes. (8) HES A SENSATION is sharp and dropping and should be close here. (3) HERE COMES WILLIAM continues to show good late speed and grab checks. One of these times he will explode the tote board. (5) CARRACCI HANOVER had a good trip but disappointed in the lane. These are easier and he should share, but, don't take a low win price on him. (6) CZAR SEELSTER has raced well over this oval this summer and can make the High-5 ticket at a price.