08/13/2015 2:16PM

Mohawk: Saturday 8/15 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

1,8/3,5,6/1,5/1,4,8 = $36

 

LATE PICK 4: 1,3,6,8,9/2,4,5/7/2,4,5 = $45

MEET STATS: 223 - 737 / $1282.30 BEST BETS: 32 - 66 / $107.50

SPOT PLAYS: 8 - 65 / $66.90

Best Bet: SHAMBALLA (3rd)

Spot Play: BUCKEROO (9th)

Race 1

(7) FLEXIBLE WOMAN was closing well late last time when dropped to this class and has won at this level previously this summer; slight nod in a tough opener. (4) E L ROCK powered home in :55 1/5 to grab second last time but is still winless this year. He should hit the ticket but is hard to love to win. (8) JUSTALITTLEFASTER broke when on the move last time, ending a string of good performances. He can rebound here if he stays flat.

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Race 2

(1) TESSA SEELSTER raced okay first-up pressing solid fractions at Grand River in her first start in a month and only tired late. She has a big shot here starting from the inside. (7) GRACIES PARADR continues to motor home late but in many cases it's too late. She's sharp and capable but needs some luck to win. (8) ARTIAWITCHYOU got hung out to dry in a sires stake at Batavia. She can threaten these if she lands in the top 5 at the start.

Race 3

(6) SHAMBALLA produced a phenomenal kick last week, bridging a 9 1/2 length deficit at the 3/4 by pacing home in :25 2/5 to win going away. A sharper racehorse you will not find. (7) MELMERBY BEACH invades from the Meadowlands where he has been laying down some serious speed. He'll have to hold off the choice late though. (2) ULTIMATE BEACHBOY has been racing well and grabbing good shares but he'll have trouble beating both of the top two here likely.

Race 4

(1) WINDS OF CHANGE takes a big drop in class here and there is lots of early speed to chase; on top. (8) INTENDED STYLE is one of the hottest horses on the grounds. The speed he showed last week makes him a contender here despite the class rise. (7) CHEYENNE REIDER broke last week at the start but he is always a late threat when he minds his manners. He is a rarity in that he seems to prefer outer posts.

Race 5

(6) TWIN B SCANDAL has shown some serious early speed in both his last two starts and last time came back on late to win. Call to repeat in current form. (3) SOUTHWIND INDY failed as a big chalk last time but two back was an easy winner. He looks like the main threat. (5) HIS BOY ELROY has a recency advantage on many of these and would be the beneficiary of any mid-race battling should that scenario arise.

Race 6

(1) MOONWRITER has faced some very tough company the past month. He's capable vs. this group and might even be a square price; top call. (5) SPORTSMANSHIP chased a tough leader first-over last time and tired late. That one isn't in here and he looks like one of the best of this group. (9) MR CARROTS set some reasonable fractions but couldn't hold on late. He's still stuck on one win for the year which is a bit concerning although he fits in here.

Race 7

(1) FOREVER JUST left hard for the top, was overtaken then hung around for third in a good effort in this class last week. He projects to get a good trip here from the inside. (4) REAL ROCKER raced sharply first-up last week to just miss in this class last week; contender. (8) HERE COMES WILLIAM continues to show improved late speed and is one that will blow up the tote sometime soon; maybe tonight?

Race 8

(3) WRANGLER MAGIC had the passing lane blocked for part of the stretch last time which may have cost her the win. She figures highly here. (8) MOONLIT DANCE hasn't raced since a game victory in the Mistletoe Shalee. She can obviously win this, but you have to wonder if it's a prep for a bigger event. (9) BET YA is as consistent as they come and a threat even from the outer post.

Race 9

(5) BUCKEROO couldn't close into a :26 4/5 final 1/4 last time but may have found a field with a few that will battle each other into submission. Don't be surprised if he rolls by late. (2) PRESCOTTS HOPE couldn't hang on last time after getting a third 1/4 breather. He is a sharp contender, however. (4) P L IDAHO likes the front same as the one above. That could nullify both of their chances late.

Race 10

(7) MILEYS BIG WORLD has been on a big roll and last week's effort from the 10-hole was exceptional; top call despite the move out of claimers. (1) HAT TRICK HONEY was one stride short last time in a good effort; using. (6) KISS ME OR NOT could do here if she blasts off the gate early; hard to say if she will though.

Race 11

(2) MACHAL JORDAN has been live the past two weeks and aggressively driven. He has a good shot of taking these. (5) CARRACCI HANOVER went a big mile last time but couldn't hold off a classy veteran late. He is a big threat here. (4) A J CORBELLI set a quick pace then stopped. He could threaten with a better trip and more conservative drive.

Race 12

(9) SPORTING THE LOOK was a solid winner last time pressing quick fractions; call to repeat. (3) WINDSONG LORD finished 2nd for the fifth time in a row last time; make it six? (8) STEVES LEGACY has been closing well in each start and is a solid bet for a slice of this. (2) SURGE SEELSTER was a good 4th last time, passing six horses in the final 1/4; share likely here. (7) SPORTS LIGHTNING has a good late kick on his best day. He can nail a small share here.

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