08/11/2016 1:12PM

Mohawk: Saturday 8/13 Analysis


Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


PICK 5: 1,2,4/6,8/5,7,8/2,3,9/2,7 = $21.60

EARLY PICK 4: 2,3,9/2,7/1,3,7/1,3,5,6 = $72

LATE PICK 4: 3,5,6/7,8,9/3/3,4,9 = $27

MEET STATS: 271 - 780 / $1441.80  BEST BETS: 44 - 72 / $142.90

SPOT PLAYS: 17 - 72 / $86.60

Best Bet: TRACEUR HANOVER (10th)

Spot Play: SHOOT THE THRILL (5th)

Race 1

(4) LOVETHEWAYYOULOOK went a big trip on the rim last week and just failed to hold off a big favorite that was making a big class drop. She looks best here and should get the job done if given a reasonable trip. (2) LIGHTS GO OUT is in excellent form. She should be a threat from close range here. (1) RIDE AWAY SHARK should get a good trip leaving from the inside and is another that can threaten here. (3) MISS COCO LUCK has returned from a break in good form. She should take at least a minor share here.

Race 2

(8) LISVINNIE was aggressively driven to a powerful win that was only one tick off his life's mark last week. He can take another here despite the class rise. (6) BRINGHOME THEBLUE is due for a better trip and some luck and can beat these if he gets a bit of both. (9) SING FOR ME GEORGE and (5) AMERICAN ROCK are two good ones to use on the bottom of exotic wagers here but neither has registered a win yet this year.

Race 3

(5) WORLDCLASS HANOVER was in a prime spot going into the final turn last week then broke and lost all chance. If she stays flat here, she should be right there at the wire. (7) MERCHANDISER was hung out to dry last week and paid the price. If he can clear early here, he could take these much farther. (8) HILLS ANGEL has a weak win record but will probably take another share here. (4) UNICUM BI steps up off a sharp win and isn't out of this.

Race 4

(2) BRING ME DIAMONDS moves inside and might be able to work out a winning trip here at a price. (3) FOREVER LIZA is on a roll and is the filly to beat here. (9) TOP ROYAL comes off a big winning trip where she took a new life's mark but she has been inconsistent. Toss on Pick 4 and Pick 5 bets off that trip. (7) ICTHELIGHT HANOVER seems likely to take a smaller share here.

Race 5

(2) SHOOT THE THRILL finished quickly last time now moves back inside. Expect an early aggressive move here. (7) MURMUR HANOVER seems obvious with the big class drop, but he isn't the most reliable sort. Beware taking too short a price. (1) CROWN CLASSIC has improving form and is in with a shot starting from the inside. (6) BAX OF LIFE continues to take minor awards which will likely continue here.

Race 6

(7) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE should get a good pace to chase here and gets a slight nod in a field with several possibilities. (3) FREE SHOW faces easier here and she should be heard from. (1) THISORTHAT HANOVER paid the price for pacing a :26 3/5 third 1/4 while making a move to the front last week. She could do here with more careful rating. (2) TRILIFE has shown dramatic improvement in her past two starts; beware.

Race 7

(5) DRACHAN HANOVER equaled his life's mark last week and could get a similarly good trip here. Call to repeat. (3) SHADOW PLACE moves inside and returns to a 7-day cycle. He should be a square price, too; using. (1) DUC DORLEANS is an obvious threat from close range here; using. (6) CARACCI HANOVER was a winner three back when making a similar class drop and he can't be dismissed totally, either.

Race 8

(6) DUH BUBBEES was passively driven last week and showed little but was a sharp winner in a similar class to this one two back over a horse that came back to set a track record at Grand River on Wednesday. I'll give him the nod here hoping he is being sent early. (5) FIVE BELOW has done well in his past two for Macdonald and he retains that hot driver; using. (3) AMITYVILLE LINDY went a huge trip on the rim to win last week and should be considered for Pick 4 bets here. (4) RENEGADE MAGIC seems likely to be closing for a lesser share.

Race 9

(7) NICKLE BAG was the only one to move on Evenin of Pleasure last week and that rival is absent here. Look for Henry to try to seize control of this race early. (8) ELLIS PARK is in top form but will need to work out a trip from a post that is likely less than ideal for him. (9) STATE TREASURER is the other legit Preferred horse in here and he will likely pepper the early pace. (5) JINS SHARK was really racing well before he got sick and he qualified well for his return. This isn't the easiest spot to return in, but he could crash the exotics at a price.

Race 10

(3) TRACEUR HANOVER had a decent return race now drops to face much easier here. He should get the job done vs. these. (5) NEW YORK NIGHTMARE went a big trip last week in defeat and should be a main player in here despite the class rise. (4) MR CARROTTS broke while on the move last time when dropped to this class. He should be a factor here if he stays flat. (1) JENKINS CREEK never gets bet at this level but can make the Super ticket at a price.

Race 11

(9) OUR JERRY LEE N ships in and faces easier here. I would think he will get put into this race early. (4) LEAFS AND WINGS raced well at this level last week and he should be closer early moving inside; using. (3) ST LADS LOTTO should be dangerous here and is another that should get put into action earlier than he was last week. (5) VEGAS ROCKS drops and gets back to a 7-day cycle. Expect improvement this time. (5) THORN IN YOUR SIDE has been taking small shares lately and could do the same here.

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