07/30/2015 2:30PM

Mohawk: Saturday 8/1 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


2,3,9,10/8,10/4,5,6,10/3,6 = $64


LATE PICK 4: 5/5,8/2,3,7,8/2,3,6 = $24

MEET STATS: 197 - 648 / $1123.00 BEST BETS: 27 - 58 / $92.50

SPOT PLAYS: 7 - 58 / $57.30

Best Bet: LIVING HISTORY (8th)

Spot Play: DADDY WARBUCKS (12th)

Race 1

(4) AVENTURE moved into the Adams barn, took heavy support at the windows then self-destructed early. He re-qualified okay and now gets to drop in class; top call but I wouldn't take less than 2/1 and even then might not bet in the win pool. (2) JUSTALITTLEFASTER continues to race much better following a return from a break and will be coming late again. (5) JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL drops back to a level where she usually shares and should hit the ticket.

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Race 2

(5) GRACIES PARADE was bottled up until very late last week but was closing fast once she had a clear lane. She is likely to be a decent price here and is one of several that can take this. (8) INVEST IN ART was a powerful first-up winner and the choice here will have to deal with her again. (4) UNIQUE ROCK N ROLL was third to the two above last week now returns to a 7-day cycle and should be closer here.

Race 3

(6) CANTABS FORTUNE missed a month between her start last week and the one two back and wasn't asked for much as a result. She still closed decently down the lane and now - when she gets to race twice a week apart - might be the time to play her as some of the faithful jump ship. (1) HER NAME IS LOLA made two moves last time and just missed. She is the one to knock off here. (2) KATE SMITH is an interesting entrant in that she blew up the tote in the winter sporting a similar-looking set of past performance lines.

Race 4

(2) BYE BYE MICHELLE got stuck in a blindswitch at the worst time last week and didn't threaten thereafter. She's capable of better; we'll give her another try. (10) SOUTHWIND GINGER takes a pretty big class drop here and will likely take the bulk of the wagering support; using in the early pick 4. (9) DELIRIUM had to do more work last time and tired as a result. She's more dangerous out of the pocket and she could land there early here.

Race 5

Both (8) CAMAES FELLOW and (10) TRACKMASTER D plunge in class and look best here with the edge going to the former who has the better post. (3) IDEAL JET made a huge move past some winded leaders last week but was going too fast and gave up a big lead in a hurry in the stretch. He is likely to revert to a closing style here which could work out great.

Race 6

(5) O U SEXY GUY closed with a rush last week only to be overtaken by another closer late. He fits well in this class and this isn't the strongest field; top call. (6) STRONG HOPE faced better the past two starts and is a likely pace factor here. (10) J CS JAKE also takes a class plunge too but will need to beat a few of these off the gate which is probably unlikely from out there; minor share predicted.

Race 7

(6) SPINFINITI gets away from the top class where he just hasn't been able to beat either Shamballa or Evenin Of Pleasure. There is a good chance for a drop-and-pop here. (3) LADY SHADOW shows up to face the boys here and is still unbeaten in the Adams barn. She can obviously compete but you have to wonder about intent in this spot. (5) DUC DORLEANS was game last week but just couldn't reach a game winner late. He is one you should check on the track before wagering because he often appears steppy during his miles.

Race 8

(5) LIVING HISTORY closed okay late when coming off a 3-week break last week. She has faced mostly tougher recently and should handle these. (3) LADY JEN has shown great improvement in her past two starts and is a good bet to complete the exacta. (5) FLOAT ON BY produced her best effort of the year last week and can build on that and share here.

Race 9

(8) MARLEE B was in an impossible spot last week when trailing a slow pace early but still managed to gain ground throughout. Returning to a 7-day cycle gives her top call here. (5) LIGHTS GO OUT is a hot/cold type that is very hot at the moment. Keep her on your late pick 4 tickets. (6) BET YA is as solid as they come and rarely throws in a bad one. She's another to consider for the late pick 4.

Race 10

(7) LETS ROCK TOGETHER passed all but one late despite missing three week's action and now comes back in a week and gets to drop in class; top call. (8) CHEYENNE REIDER was in a bad flow last time which cost him any hope. He rarely finishes off the board in two straight; using. (3) CARACCI HANOVER also drops a bit in class and can get a piece of this at a big price.

Race 11

(2) BROOKDALE SHADOW left, yielded, took a shuffle then came back on for 2nd behind a sharp winner. She could get a great pocket trip here; top call. (6) VICTORIA SEMALU is on a roll but her most recent win came over the massively speed-favoring track on July 18; using but also hoping to beat in the late pick 4. (3) REGAL LUCK has been in solid form for a while now and can take this with a good trip.

Race 12

(9) DADDY WARBUCKS raced very well first off the claim and will likely be a square price vs. some class droppers here. We'll take a swing with him on top. (3) KENDAL GUSTAV closed well late into an accelerating last 1/4 and is a threat here with post relief. (8) BURNING SHORE figures highly on the class drop but is also a win-shy type that is sure to be overbet. (7) VELOCITY DRIVEN always seems to be closing after-the-fact and likely picks up a minor share here. (1) CZAR SEELSTER raced tough vs. a very sharp winner last time and can better this placing.

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