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Mohawk: Saturday 7/4 Analysis
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
EARLY PICK 4:
2,3,6/2,3,5,6/1,2,5/1,3 = $72
LATE PICK 4: 6,7,10/1,3,5/1,3,6/4,8 = $54
MEET STATS: 151 - 474 / $869.50 BEST BETS: 19 - 42 / $68.20
SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 40 / $53.20
Best Bet: BROOKDALE SHADOW (1st)
Spot Play: RESISTANCE FUTILE (6th)
(4) BROOKDALE SHADOW returned from the Maritimes last week and showed she hasn't lost any of the speed that made her a 1:51 4/5 winner last year by going right down the road for an easy win. These aren't much tougher and she can go faster if need be, top call. (1) TIGRA SEELSTER wasn't asked for much from the outermost post last time and is capable of better here starting from the inside. (5) LARJON LAURA similarly took back from the outside early last time but now moves to the middle of the gate and will likely look for early position here which makes her more dangerous.
(3) SANDBETWEENURTOES raced well in both her Roses Are Red elim and the final. She should be very tough to beat vs. this easier company. (4) SKIPPIN BY could do no better than 8th place while pacing her final 3/4 in 1:20 2/5 in the Roses Are Red final. She stands a much better chance here, obviously. (6) MARLEE B has really turned up her game at this meet but the top two may be just too fast for her here.
(6) I AM SPECIAL was hung out first-over on a night where that was the worst place to be and predictably faded. Back on a 7-day rotation she stands a much better chance here. (3) DOMEDOMEDOME was one of few closers that did well last Saturday and merits respect off that mile. (4) JUSTCALLMERONALD was a pocket rocket and just missed his life's mark on a track rated two seconds slow. He's in with a chance to repeat but the price will take a big hit this week.
(3) MAJOR HOMER powered up late to just miss despite racing with broken equipment on an extremely speed-favoring track. He took his life's mark of 1:50 flat two back and is obviously very sharp right now; top call. (2) SOUTHWIND AMAZON closed in :53 flat on North America Cup night when trying closing tactics. He should be prominent throughout here and is a big player. (6) ELLIS PARK always seems to have trouble keeping up to cover on the final turn then comes again in the lane - likely the reason why he hasn't hit the exacta in 7 tries so far this season.
(6) QUIT SMOKING NOW had no shot the way the race unfolded last week as the cover flow never got close to the top two at any point. Look for a rebound performance here. (5) J CS JAKE suffered the same fate as the choice on a track that was terrible for closers and he too is likely to race much better here. (2) HIDDEN IDENTITY was a clear second last week but the track also favored the style he chose to employ. He's a contender but a bad risk if he is a short price.
(5) RESISTANCE FUTILE went a huge trip last week parked the mile from the 10-hole and was only beaten by one that sat a golden trip throughout and slipped by late. He would be tough to beat here with a repeat of that effort and a better trip. (1) ATOMIC MILLION M missed the exacta for the first this year last week but he was trying to do the impossible - close into a 26 3/5 last 1/4 on a massively speed-favoring track. He is a big threat here. (2) A J CORBELLI was in the same dash as the one above and came home in 25 4/5 in the slop to get nothing. The drop in class obviously makes him a contender here.
(1) SHAMBALLA was the victim of pace, track bias and race flow last week, not to mention he missed a week's action. Returning in 7 days from a much better post he figures highly here. (3) WINDS OF CHANGE - like many others a week ago - couldn't get anything going first up. He too figures prominently here especially if you put a line through that mile in your program. (6) THINKING OUT LOUD drops out of the Gold Cup but has struggled in this class too so far in what has been a disappointing start to the year for him.
(6) MISS COCO LUCK raced better last week and now gets to drop to face mostly easier. She will be tough either on the lead or out of the pocket. (7) REGAL LUCK was no secret last week, dropping to 9/2 from her 15/1 morning line quote and she destroyed her foes...now steps up going for 4 straight; contender. (10) EMPRESS DEO raced tough last week but couldn't reach a class-dropping winner late. She is a contender here despite the post position.
(3) POISONOUS was impressive in defeat last week powering up first-over to get a short lead but the slow early pace and track bias played into the pacesetter's hand and this Art Major colt just failed to hold on. He can turn the tables here. (1) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN stole an easy third 1/4 when no one was challenging then sprinted with the choice for the entire final 1/4 and managed to hold on late. He has been very good the entire year so far and must be on late pick 4 tickets. (5) SPLIT THE HOUSE showed little in the North America Cup consolation then took a week off. He is hard to love here at 4/5 which is his likely final odds.
(1) SHADOWS WONDER had good speed both early and late last week and would have been in a win photo had she found room earlier in the stretch. This is the easiest field she has met in a while and she should be able to convert starting from the inside. (3) GRACIES PARADE came first up and was the one that pinned the choice in, eventually losing the place photo to that one. She looks like the main foe here. (6) TRAUMA UNIT was out a long way and paid the price as a result. She gets her regular pilot back here and together these two have been known to blow up the tote in the past; beware.
(4) STAR COVER was first up against some tough ones last Monday and still managed to get a check. He looks best here. (8) THE WAYFARING MAN was hung out to dry in the North American Cup Consolation and faded as you might expect. He has a much better chance vs. this group. (1) PRESCOTTS HOPE has reeled off two straight monster miles on the front end but gets a big acid test here; he is likely overtaken in the mid-stages or picked off late in this company.
(6) STOMPIN TOM CREEK closed well on a speed-biased track last week now moves into Moreau's barn; top billing. (3) MR DENNIS was futilely trying to close on the same track and did well to grab fifth. He can go closer here. (10) REGAL SON left hard for position, took a shuffle then came on again late. He fits this class and is a threat even from out there. (5) MACHAL JORDAN continues to race well and grab shares. He should make the Super here. (2) PRINCE CLYDE made a big move to the top in the second 1/4 but couldn't sustain his speed late. He could be a big factor on the pace here returning to a 7-day cycle.