07/25/2013 3:12PM

Mohawk: Saturday 7/27 Analysis

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Race 4 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: SEE AND SKI (2nd)

Spot Play: PAIGING KADABRA (5th)

Race 1

(5) KENNEL BUDDY went a very tough trip in this class last week. He draws better, has the speed and will once again be a favourite. (4) BRENWAY DIXIE has been racing very well in recent weeks and has a good record this season. She draws well and has gate-speed. (6) CHARMED LIFE raced very well in her latest at Grand River. She's at a level where I feel she's capable, but will need a trip.

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Race 2

(4) SEE AND SKI was a convincing winner last week even with a post 10 start. He was under a comfortable hand-drive and will be a favourite among many horseplayers. (3) WARRAWEE NONSUCH has been racing very well in his last two starts. He finished second in this class at odds of 23-1 and once again is capable.  (8) ELLIS PARK is lightly raced in his career, but has a good record. He qualified very well and appears ready.

Race 3

(2) OK COMMANDER is down in class and has paced in sub-1:50 in five of his last six starts. He raced better on or near the front and that should happen from post two. (1) CASIMIR JITTERBUG draws the rail and has paced in sub-1:50 in each of his last two starts. He's a major contender in here for trainer O'Sullivan. (3) ANDERLECHT did most of the work last week en route to victory in 1:50. He's up in class, but has made this jump before.

Race 4

(6) INSTANT THRILL moves onto this circuit and into Moreau's barn. That's the only reason for my selection as Moreau has an excellent reputation for first time starters. (7) WESTERN SENATOR finished second in this class last week. He raced at his best coming from off the pace and gets Jamieson. (4) STONEBRIDGE WISH drops down in class after a pair of fourth place finishes. He should appreciate the class relief.

Race 5

(7) PAIGING KADABRA is only one-for-17, but he drops in class and comes from a high percentage trainer. He enjoys racing from behind and if he's not too far back, I like his chances.  (4) WHIMZICAL BRITT won last start at Georgian in a speedy time. He finally put it all together and a repeat effort makes him quick enough in here. (3) INDIAN LAKE draws inside and is fresh off a win. This isn't a deep field and he likely will be a longshot.

Race 6

Even with an outside post, (10) DRAIN DADDY is a major player in here. He's got a terrific record this season, has gate-speed and has been knocking on the door for quite some time in this class. A victory could come in here. (6) SHIPPS XPECTANCY also has a good record this season and has terrific gate-speed. He's a good option for the exactor. (9) ROCK ME AMASTREOS is fresh off a win, comes out of O'Sullivan's barn and has hit the board in five of his last six starts.

Race 7

(7) SHELLISCAPE comes back into this class after competing in the Roses Are Red. She won at this level the last time she was in this class three starts ago. She may offer a fair price. (5) BELLE BOYD put in a sub-par effort in her latest, getting beat by 16 1/4 lengths. She'll look for a rebound performance as she faces older mares. (9) VOELZ HANOVER is a 'must have' on the triactor ticket. She hasn't missed the board since March 29.

Race 8

(5) SPEED AGAIN finally got the monkey off his back and scored his first win of the season. I'm hoping that trend continues. He's up in class, but it's not much deeper. (8) R GAUWITZ HANOVER has been the favourite in this class in two of his last three starts. He has terrific closing speed and usually races from behind. (7) MACHS BEACH BOY won last week and used a :26 4/5 final quarter to seal the win. He's a good option for the triactor.

Race 9

(6) IDEAL RACE is a classy veteran who's down in class and comes out of the Gillis barn. He likely will offer a fair price and was timed in 1:49 4/5 two starts ago. (9) COOL ROCK will need quick fractions for the best result with his outside post. He has terrific closing speed and hopefully won't be too far back. (2) MY MAN CHARLEY draws inside and raced at his best when he's put into the race. He's hit the board in his last two of three starts.

Race 10

(3) ARACACHE HANOVER has terrific gate-speed and faces a much easier bunch than he's use to. He'll likely be the favourite. (6) STATE TREASURER went a tough trip in his latest and also faces an easier group. He gets Waples back in the bike and likely won't offer a price. (5) UPFRONT HOOSIERBOY has a good record this season and was recently timed in 1:48 4/5 just two starts ago. He's a threat with that kind of raceline.

Race 11

(7) SHELBYS COBRA went from last-to-second in his most recent start and made up countless ground. He's been terrific since the claim two starts back.  (4) THE DEPUTY IS HOME draws well and is a great option in here. He's finished second or third in each of his last five starts. (2) GARETH NOURRIR has hit the board in five of his last six starts, draws inside and shows the speed. He likely will offer a fair price and has been very consistent.

Race 12

This is a very wide-open race, but (10) KEYED ENTRY has been racing terrific in his last number of starts. He does move up in class and has post 10, but I'm price shopping in the finale. (5) AZOREANSAILOR moves onto this circuit and looks like he's ready to step up. He's been racing well at Georgian and shows the speed to compete in this class. (1) PRINCE ADAM gets the rail, Jamieson and finished third in his latest. This is a tough race to predict, but I'm using him for third due to the Jamieson angle.

 

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