07/23/2015 2:48PM

Mohawk: Saturday 7/25 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


2,6/1,2,3,10/2,5,7/2,4,5 = $72


LATE PICK 4: 1,4,5,6,9/6,9/2,3,6/2,5,7 = $60

MEET STATS: 189 - 615 / $1074.80 BEST BETS: 24 - 55 / $83.80

SPOT PLAYS: 7 - 55 / $57.30

Best Bet: SHAMBALLA (3rd)

Spot Play: THE WAYFARING MAN (1st)

Race 1

(2) THE WAYFARING MAN had no shot trying to close from 10th last week but looked very good on the end of his previous mile when closing quickly on the far outside. He faces easier here and is likely to be put into the race much earlier; top call in the opener. (7) MACHS BOY was a sharp first-over winner in his Mohawk debut. He has really turned things around this season; respect. (1) THE BATTLE BEGINS was too far back on a track unkind to closers last Saturday and could sneak into the tri here at a price.

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Race 2

(4) AVENTURE ships in and moves into the potent Adams barn. The July 17th qualifier signals readiness. (5) EXEMPLAR dropped in class last week and set all the pace until very late when he was picked off by another class-dropper. That was his best effort in a while and perhaps he can string a couple of good ones together. (1) PAPER BACKED LINDY parlayed a following trip into victory by reaching up to beat the one above right on the wire. He projects to get a similar trip here and is dangerous.

Race 3

(5) SHAMBALLA has taken to making his move in the middle of his races recently, which considering his razor-sharp condition and his closing power makes him virtually uncatchable once he makes front. He should win his third straight here but will likely be odds-on. (2) SPINFINITI has been sharper the past two and has upset potential if he can find a way to trip out. (1) ELLIS PARK has come to life with more aggressive handling the past two starts and can get a piece of this despite the rise in class.

Race 4

(6) MEA LILLEY MARK got stuck behind terrible cover last week in a rapid mile for the class and couldn't close. Missing a check there allows her to drop even further in class and she looks tough in here. (2) SHADYS M THREE finished ahead of the choice in that dash but had a much better trip on the inside the entire way. She can threaten here but often depends on the pace collapsing to get it done. (3) LOTSA MATZAH has faced the same sharp winner twice in a row now escapes her and gets post relief for her third start off a layoff. She would be no surprise.

Race 5

(10) BUCKEROO closed in :52 1/5 last week and still couldn't get close. He is razor-sharp but will need to beat a few of these off the gate to have a chance at the win. (1) IDEAL JET was outside just spinning his wheels like the rest of the field chasing a very fast winner last week. He has a much better chance here. (2) THREE OF CLUBS has yet to win this season but is dangerous here on the class drop.

Race 6

(5) SPORTSMANSHIP was one of few that passed several horses last Saturday and that prep should set him up nicely for this OSS Gold dash; top call. (7) WINDSONG LEO also had a useful tightener last week and should return to better form here making his third start back from a break due to a vet scratch. (2) DRACHAN HANOVER was first up pushing an accelerating pace in the second 1/2 last week and tired as a result. Look no further than two races back to see what he's capable of with a better trip.

Race 7

(2) SPORTS LIGHTNING was at the mercy of the track condition last week and could only close moderately as a result. He stands a better chance to show what he can do here. (5) HIS BOY ELROY suffered a similar fate in the same race and starting from the middle of the gate should see him placed closer early; using. (4) SPORTING THE LOOK beat similar two back then wasn't that far back when facing elders. Keep him on early pick 4 tickets.

Race 8

(1) PHYSICALLYINCLINED got a breather in the first 1/2 last week which made him uncatchable late. Slight nod starting from the inside in a race you may want to go deep in on your late pick 4 tickets. (6) P L IDAHO can be erratic at times but has been very good the past two weeks. He will likely try to bottom out the field here in the third 1/4. (4) MR CARROTS drops out of the Summertime series where he faced a very tough winner. He figures here.

Race 9

(9) BURNIN MONEY takes a big drop in class here and should be able to take this group but needs to be careful not to get too far back early from this post. (6) JUSTALITTLEFASTER has raced well twice in a row after going through a long winless streak. He looks like one of the better ones in here. (7) BLUSH AND CRUSH is one of several that will compete for minor shares here.

Race 10

(6) PUSH BACK raced well last week, closing late for third on a track where few were gaining ground in the 2nd half. He is likely to leave hard here from an improved post; top call. (3) STOMPIN TOM CREEK finished just ahead of the choice in the same mile in a sharp effort and is a contender here. (2) PRINCE CLYDE dropped and popped in a big way Monday night and now moves back up off that confidence builder; using.

Race 11

(2) ULTIMATE BEACHBOY, despite pacing a sub-:27 final 1/4 could not hold off a very sharp winner last week. He looks tough in here and could quite conceivably sit a perfect two-hole trip. (7) NIRVANA SEELSTER set a new life's mark last week, helped by the speed-favoring nature of the surface. Still, he is too sharp to ignore. (5) DUC DORLEANS was on great cover last week but the two he was trying to chase down weren't stopping late. He knows where the wire returns to a 7-day cycle here.

Race 12

(9) KENDAL GUSTAV has been racing decently out of town in the top class and gets a lukewarm call in a head-scratcher of a finale. (6) BESTOFTHEBUNCH has also been racing well out of town and likely gets sent hard early here. He could stick around for a big share at a price. (3) SUNNY BEACH DAY drops in class after having no shot to close last week. He's good for a share but rarely wins under any circumstances. (4) YUCATAN raced better last time and is another in with a shot. (1) BEACHSIDE BUNGALOW has won three of his last four in claimers out of town but will need to find more speed here to compete for the win.

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