07/16/2015 2:42PM

Mohawk: Saturday 7/18 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

5,7,9/2/1,2,4,6,8,9/1,3,7,8 = $72

 

LATE PICK 4:1,3,5/8/3,8,10/2,3,5,6,7 = $45

MEET STATS: 168 - 560 / $981.10 BEST BETS: 20 - 50 / $71.10

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 50 / $53.20

Best Bet: VORACITY (5th)

Spot Play: SPORTS LIGHTNING (12th)

Race 1

(5) MEA LILLEY MARK wasn't that far back vs. slightly better last time and Saftic, who had great success driving her in 2014, returns. We'll give her a slight nod in a wide open curtain raiser. (4) THATLL BE FRANNY finished ahead of the choice and was up close to a strong pace throughout; contender. (7) SHADYS M THREE was paced off her feet early last time but did close a big gap in the back 1/2. She would benefit from some kind of early duelling.

[MEADOWLANDS: Watch the Meadowlands Pace & entire stakes-filled Saturday card--Live on DRF!]

Race 2

(3) ARAMBLIN HANOVER raced a big mile on the limb and was only caught by the one he provided perfect cover for last time. He looks like he has hit his best form and MacDonell returns for the second week straight; top call. (7) P L IDAHO parlayed some soft fractions into an easy win last time on a night speed was holding well. He will be tough if allowed to take similar breathers here. (2) GOOD FRIDAY THREE raced in the North America Cup final - finishing last - then was dull in an OSS Gold dash and then a vet scratch sick. He has ability, obviously, but likely needs this start.

Race 3

(1) SPINFINITI took a lot of support at the windows last week and justified that faith by racing great to just miss. He's a bit of an in-and-outer that seems to be on 'in' mode right now so we'll give him a slight edge. (4) SHAMBALLA beat all but one of these two weeks ago then took a week off. He is the one to upend. (6) EVENIN OF PLEASURE reversed his normal tactics last week and unleashed a :53 1/5 back half to power up from 4th-over and reach up late. He is razor-sharp.

Race 4

(7) REGAL SON set the pace early in what turned out to be a two-horse battle royale late in a crazy-fast mile for this class. He held on well behind the top two to best the balance and these are easier. (5) STOMPIN TOM CREEK set too fast a pace to the 3/4 mark and understandably tired. He could take this with better rating. (9) PUSH BACK looked like a winner turning home but the one sitting right on his back throughout had a better trip. He should be a pace factor at a minimum.

Race 5

(2) VORACITY was a sensational debut winner last week and should take some beating here. (7) CHALK PLAYER has had sub-:27 final 1/4 speed in both starts but hasn't been close enough to capitalize. He is one to consider here at a price. (9) NVESTMENT BLUECHIP had good speed both early and late in his debut win which is the mark of a good horse. The post is no bargain here but he's still in with a chance.

Race 6

(6) PHYSICALLYINCLINED made all the pace but couldn't hold off the pocket-sitter last time. That one's in here again, but the choice has a better post and a light nod here in a tough heat to figure with so many stakes types racing in a conditioned class. (9) BUCKEROO parlayed a good trip into a predictable win last week and should be coming late here; using. (4) PIERCE HANOVER tried the Hempt - making the final - and the Meadowlands Pace and is an obvious player on paper, but remember this is a $22K purse they are racing for here.

Race 7

(8) ELLIS PARK changed tactics last week and it worked to perfection as he fired off a lifetime-best 1:48 4/5 mile by making three moves and getting by a stubborn opponent late. These are tougher but he may be up to it. (3) SOUTHWIND AMAZON was a good third in the Preferred to two sharp foes. He should be heard from here. (7) ULTIMATE BEACHBOY drops from the Preferred and is sure to be gunning when the gate swings open; keep on pick 4 tickets.

Race 8

(1) PRECOCIOUS BEAUTY was solid last week, setting all the pace, but was beaten by the pocket-sitter who was dropping out of open stakes company. A repeat effort puts her right there with these. (3) MS MAC N CHEESE has made the exacta in 14 of 16 lifetime starts and seems to meet every challenge successfully. Respect her consistency. (5) NAT A VIRGIN unleashed a crazy-fast mile last week, taking no prisoners and leading throughout while setting some wild fractions. You have to wonder if that effort may have taken a little out of her.

Race 9

(8) BETTING LINE was hopelessly hemmed in for the entire stretch run of his debut but last week took no chances and went right to the front and led all the way. He looks like a good bet to repeat in this OSS Gold dash. (9) SEMI AUTOMATIC was a fast-closing 2nd in an impressive debut effort and his late kick should come into play here, too. (1) CAROLINA HURRICANE made two moves but was no match for an excellent debut winner. He should make the triactor starting from the inside.

Race 10

(3) DELIGHTFUL HILL laid some serious first-over pressure on the Fan Hanover winner last time out and only tired late to finish a close third. Off that excellent mile she should be a major player here. (8) VICTORIA SEMALU easily won in a lifetime-best in a similar class last week. She will have to be caught. (10) SOUTHWIND MISCHIEF has shown improving late speed in her past three and has an outside chance her at what will likely be a big price.

Race 11

(5) NIRVANA SEELSTER unwisely popped the pocket on the backside last week vs. Preferred foes and it likely cost him a cheque. Dropping a couple of class levels makes him a top contender here. (7) IDEAL JET has been really sharp in his past three starts and should have ample speed to chase down here. (6) ALEXIE MATTOSIE sat a sweet trip and converted late but that was a season's-best effort and he can contend vs. these as well.

Race 12

(5) SPORTS LIGHTNING impressed two back as the only closer to win on a night where speed was golden. Last time he produced a good first up effort to finish 2nd in good time at Georgian; top call here. (6) STAR COVER broke at the start last week and lost all hope. He is a top contender in this group if he stays on gait. (7) SOUTHWIND INDY - like many others in Coleman's barn - has raced much better recently and is a threat. (1) MAKE SOME LUCK has reeled off two straight out of town and is another to consider on a competitive looking heat. (10) HIS BOY ELROY has a wicked late kick when timed properly and will be passing many of these late, likely for a share.

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