07/09/2015 3:40PM

Mohawk: Saturday 7/11 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


1,3,7/2,3,7,9/1,3,7,9/1 = $48


LATE PICK 4 (Races 10-13): 5,6,7 / 3,5 / 3,7,8 / 8 = $18

MEET STATS: 160 - 515 / $920.60 BEST BETS: 20 - 46 / $71.10

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 44 / $53.20

Best Bet: ARSENIC (2nd)


Race 1

(9) WILDCAT HANNA takes a big drop in class here and should be able to handle this group. (8) HAT TRICK HONEY races better when driven aggressively early; expect Jamieson to blast for position here at the start. (4) TIGRA SEELSTER slipped out at the 3/4 last time and got up for third. She has improved her overall speed the past few weeks and can share here.

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Race 2

(7) ARSENIC couldn't have been more impressive in his debut when sprinting first-over and chasing down a loose leader that had carved out advantageous fractions. That was one of the best rookie performances we've seen so far this summer; call to repeat. (4) NVESTMENT BLUECHIP improved dramatically in his second qualifier and destroyed his rivals. He looks like one of the main threats to the choice. (6) STAR OF OZ has shown big speed winning two qualifiers by massive margins down south. He will have to be caught.

Race 3

(1) IM SPORTY was picked off late in his debut here then traveled to Georgian for an easy win in good time. He is one of many options in a very competitive dash. (8) BETTING LINE was stuck inside down the lane with pace but nowhere to go in his debut. He could offer a much better price here starting farthest out and Cristoforou just might work out a good trip on a helmet. (7) HEAVYMETAL HANOVER was uncatchable in his debut after cutting some easy fractions to the 3/4. This assignment will be tougher but not impossible by any means.

Race 4

(3) STAR COVER couldn't keep pace in some wicked fractions last week but now makes his third start following a vet scratch and rates highly here; top call. (7) FEELING LUCKY CAM went a big first-over trip at Georgian in only his third start of the year to finish a good second in a rapid mile. He is sharp and fits this class well. (1) P L IDAHO is as erratic as they come but has high speed and is very dangerous on his good days. Keep on pick 4 tickets but avoid the win pool if the price is low.

Race 5

(2) SOUTHWIND GEISHA was inexplicably hung the mile last week in what could only be described as a headscratcher of a drive. Her best style is saving up one late charge in deep stretch and there should be enough action here in this stakes final to set up her kick; call to upset. (3) IMAGINE DRAGON was a big winner in the first leg then raced conservatively from an outer post last week. She's the one to knock off. (7) LINDYS OLD LADY has a win and a second in the preliminary legs and is dangerous from close range.

Race 6

(1) BUCKEROO tried in vain to close on a night where leaders held a massive edge. He is going to win one soon and will likely be a decent price tonight with a lot of pace signed on to chase.  (9) DIALAMARA took his life's mark last week over a 5/8ths track and is an obviously sharp contender. (7) BIG MOMENT motored up late to nail down an OSS Gold win right on the wire and is another contender in a deep field for this class.

Race 7

(1) SOUTHWIND MAYHEM was picked off late by an impressive debut winner that simply outsprinted him to the wire. He will be tough here with that experience under his belt. (5) VORACITY is a half-brother to two winners from two that have raced from the dam so far. Both of those won their second starts and this one looks ready to win early too; using. (7) TWIN B MACHNIVEN was following in the pocket behind the choice last time and although outsprinted late still closed in :27 flat. He would have a better chance in a race with more even fractions.

Race 8

(2) POISONOUS stayed in last week and lacked room for most of the stretch. When free he was visibly going well at the wire. He is likely to be the highest price of the three main contenders who seem evenly matched so this is where we land. (7) SPLIT THE HOUSE made front early and was unstressed through reasonable fractions. He is sharp and tough but almost surely faces some stiffer challenges here in the Summertime final. (4) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN has a win and a second so far in the series and can't be ignored either.

Race 9

(4) REGAL LUCK followed up a big win two back with a narrow loss in this class last week where she was closing in on the leader late in the mile. Call on top in her current sharp condition. (8) LIGHTS GO OUT picked up 10 lengths in the back half last week and now takes a class drop. She should threaten these at some point of the mile. (9) BROOKDALE SHADOW has won two straight on the engine now faces tougher. She may be able to go to the front and cut even quicker fractions and keep going; beware.

Race 10

(6) SKIPPIN BY has tried three very tough assignments since she returned to Ontario. She takes a class drop here and should show the form that made her one of the best three-year-old pacing fillies in the province last year. (5) PRECOCIOUS BEAUTY makes a similar class drop for her fifth start of the season and is the choice's main foe here. (7) DOCTOR TERROR has already fared well against her elders this year and should be included on late pick 4 tickets.

Race 11

(3) IDEAL SHADOW was eating up real estate in a hurry at the wire last week but his charge was a bit late and he fell just short. He has been one of the sharpest horses on the grounds for a couple of months and should have plenty of speed to chase here. (8) PRESCOTTS HOPE has reeled off four straight wins since being claimed each one more impressive than the one before. He faces some that can finish very fast here and this assignment is a lot tougher. Still, he has to be caught. (5) ELLIS PARK continues to take big money at the windows and fall short. He will get there one of these times when the early pace collapses in front of him. It could happen here.

Race 12

(8) EVENIN OF PLEASURE fell just short last week in this class and the one that nailed him late in the mile doesn't return. He stands a good chance of notching his second win of 2015 here. (7) PISTON BROKE isn't the most reliable on the win end but he has stepped up his game the past three starts and is a threat here. (3) SOUTHWIND AMAZON has won three of his last five and displayed high speed and grit on several occasions. He isn't the biggest stretch stepping up in class here into the Preferred.

Race 13

(8) PUSH BACK faces his easiest field in several weeks here and Henry is sure to blast him off the gate with the intention of bottoming out this field. There is a very good chance that is exactly what will happen. (3) STOMPIN TOM CREEK went a big first-over trip last week in his second start for Moreau and looks the main danger to the choice. (1) AMERICAN PAPARAZZI took a mid-race shuffle last week but stuck around for a share. He could produce a similar effort here and hit the tri. (4) CARRACCI HANOVER is better than he has shown in his last couple of miles and could crack the exotics at a big price here. (2) LIFEIMITTATESART returns from a break with a good qualifier in tow and could parlay a following trip into a share here.

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