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Mohawk: Saturday 6/20 Analysis
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Race 9 - $100,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
EARLY $1 PICK 4 (Race 4):
4,5/3,5/6,8/4,5,7,9 = $32
ALL-STAKES $1 PICK 4 (Race 9) :
3,5/3,4,5,6,8,10/3,5/2,3,5 = $72
MEET STATS: 122 - 388 / $714.70 BEST BETS: 16 - 34 / $54.80
SPOT PLAYS: 5 - 32 / $45.60
Best Bet: THUNDER STEELER (2nd)
Spot Play: BETTOR’S EDGE (10th)
(1) I GOT TO BOOGIE left hard and was overtaken in a quick half then tried to rally up the rail and fell just short in a good effort. She is sharp and should be a decent price here. Top call in the opener of an excellent card. (4) HOPE FOR PADDY gets to face easier here and should be prominent but may also be overbet. (2) SHADYS M THREE unsuccessfully reversed tactics last time. Look for her to be closing off a helmet late here.
(6) THUNDER STEELER is super sharp right now and gets top billing in a Preferred that came up a bit light due to the Gold Cup being contested later in the card. (2) CAMAES FELLOW reached up late at big odds and could get a similar cozy following trip here. (4) PISTON BROKE continues to fire home late passing horses after the winner has been decided; minor share is likely again.
Race 3 – Goodtimes Final
(4) CANEPA HANOVER won so effortlessly in a track record performance last week that it's hard to see him getting beat here. Price will be prohibitive, however. (3) FRENCH LAUNDRY, who chased the choice in vain two back, likely completes the smallest exacta of the night - if not the meet. (6) RUBBER DUCK has improved dramatically with Filion at the lines and could complete the tri.
(5) PIERCE HANOVER missed valuable racing action due to a vet scratch but still wasn't beaten that far in his North America Cup elimination. He should be better tonight and most of these are easier company. (4) SPLIT THE HOUSE led early, was shuffled a bit then forced first-over and still only tired late. That was an excellent mile and he will likely be a big favorite here. (9) GO DADDY GO cut the mile and tired late. That may not be his best style and he could rebound here in a big way.
Race 5 – Armbro Flight Final
(5) BEE A MAGICIAN set a Canadian record last week while drawing away down the lane. She gets a slight edge in this heavyweight tilt with (3) SHAKE IT CERRY, who also was an easy winner of her elim and should not be sold short. (2) CLASSIC MARTINE couldn't keep pace with the choice last week but should be tighter this week and more competitive as a result.
(6) ELLIS PARK tried to chase a leader that wasn't slowing down and the first-over trip took its toll on him last week. He figures to get a covered trip here and can convert vs. this group. (8) PUSH BACK picks up Gingras and likely a big speed try as a result of the driver switch. Keep on pick 4 tickets. (4) APPRENTICE HANOVER continues to fall short late but grab checks. Expect more of the same here.
(7) SOUTHWIND AMAZON has raced super in both starts for Adams and likely can go even faster which will likely be required here. (4) TRACK MASTER D takes a big drop, but will also take big action and is worth trying to beat at a short price. (9) SING FOR ME GEORGE showed some life last time now gets more class relief. He will be mowing them down late of the first half is contested.
(9) THINKOFAGAMEPLAN raced much better last time showing big speed both early and late. Expect a big mile here. (3) STAR COVER has raced well in both starts since returning to Mohawk and will be prominent throughout here. (5) SPORTSMANSHIP ran trying to keep up to an accelerating Go Daddy Go at London. He has missed time which is a concern but could grab a share.
Race 9 – Roses Are Red Final
(5) YAGONNAKISSMEORNOT really motored down the lane last week to fall just short. From closer range she would be hard to hold off. (3) LADY SHADOW took a new life's mark when repelling the choice and is strictly the one to beat considering her current sharpness. (2) COLORS A VIRGIN was promoted to the win via disqualification but is always a threat with her aggressive style of racing.
Race 10 – Mohawk Gold Cup
(5) BETTOR'S EDGE produced by far his best mile of the year last out following a break. He took his life's mark over this track last year and trainer Burke may have him at the top of his game at the right time to take this edition of The Mohawk Gold Cup. (6) VEGAS VACATION has fired identical 26 flat kickers in his last two and figures to get a good trip on cover here starting from the middle of the gate. This 4th start off a long layoff may see him at or close to his best. (8) STATE TREASURER's chances in the Battle of Lake Erie were compromised by post position. He has an upset chance here. (4) SHAMBALLA is consistently one of the best closers in North America but has never beaten a field of this quality before.
Race 11 – Fan Hanover Final
(3) SASSA HANOVER last week became the first of this group to take a mark under 1:50. She is peaking and likely to go off second choice again so she gets our nod. (5) JK SHE'SALADY tasted defeat for the first time to the choice last week. Something may have been amiss or perhaps some of these are catching up to the 2015 Horse of the Year now. We'll try to beat her as a likely big chalk. (2) MOONLIT DANCE has been razor-sharp all year and will be coming late as always. Minor share predicted this time, however.
Race 12 – North America Cup Final
(2) WAKIZASHI HANOVER is our call to take this renewal of the North America Cup. The Dragons Again colt unleashed an impressive kick around the final turn last week to win going away, has a top driver and a good post from which to carve out a good trip on cover. Best of all he is sure to be 2nd or 3rd choice in the wagering. (3) WIGGLE IT JIGGLEIT has been getting all the press this week following a blowout win in his elim that ran his record to a perfect 11 for 11. While he certainly will take some beating, on paper, the choice's chart line is every bit as good and this one is guaranteed to be overbet. He's on our pick 4 tickets but will offer no value in the win pool. (5) IN THE ARSENAL has been perfect this year and is now flying under the radar of the top two. He has shown grit and that he can take a lot of air and keep coming. Don't dismiss him lightly. (10) ARTSPEAK could not go with the choice around the final turn and now draws the worst post. It's hard to see him winning from out there when he may be going in the wrong direction. (1) GOOD FRIDAY THREE was flying when free late and is a good one for the bottom of vertical wagers here at a price.
(8) BEACH GAL gets top call to take this F & M Preferred that is a little light due to the Roses Are Red going earlier in the card. Expect Jamieson to move this one much earlier than usual and break the goose egg in this year's win column. (9) AMERICAN IN PARIS looks like the main threat to the choice as she is also exiting the Roses Are Red eliminations. (6) KISS ME OR NOT has been racing very well and could crack the exacta at a big price here.
(6) MIRAMONTMAN and Filion have produced some major upsets over this oval in the past and this dash looks like the kind of race where an outsider rolls by late; upset special. (4) SUNNY BEACH DAY was rolling well late in his mile last week but was too far back. He too has an upset chance but is more likely for a minor award. (1) THE REV gets major post relief and will take plenty of wagering action but is terribly win-shy and unbettable at a short price in the win pool.
(5) BUCKEROO raced well off the layoff last week but was on too much cover to threaten the top two. A second-over trip could get him there tonight. (6) BIG MOMENT was a comfortable winner in the same dash and is the one to beat here. (4) COMPANY MAN raced okay on the top class at Northfield following a break. He has shown in the past that he can compete with these and will be a good price. (9) AMORA BEACH takes a major class drop here and won't go off anywhere near his 12/1 morning line quote. (3) MAJOR HOMER has been racing well enough to grab minor shares and should get one here too.