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Mohawk: Saturday 6/18 Analysis
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Race 9 - $100,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 2,4,8/1,3,6/4/1,5/3,4,5,6 = $14.40
EARLY PICK 4: 1,5/5/1,2,5,6/4,5,7,8 = $32
LATE PICK 4: 3,5/4,6,7/3,4,6,10/6,8 = $48
ALL STAKES PICK 4: 2,7/1,4,6/2,3,4,5/3,5 = $48
MEET STATS: 128 - 414 / $712.20 BEST BETS: 22 - 39 / $79.10
SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 39 / $40.90
Best Bet: HANNELORE HANOVER (3rd)
Spot Play: LEGAL PROCESS (8th)
(4) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT was an impressive debut winner then broke while moving last time, perhaps due to a dislike of the wet track. He can make amends here on a dry track. (8) SOME GOLD has faced good company all spring and should be the main challenger to the choice if he can work out a decent trip. (2) WHATASHOWINONTARIO looked like a new horse in Auciello's barn and is worth a look here as further improvement could be coming tonight. (3) BIG BANG BOOM has been finishing his miles decently and could parlay a following trip into a smaller share here.
(3) WITCH DALI has been on fire recently in this class and although she faces tougher here, she could just keep on rolling. Note that she beat Solar Sister twice and that mare then easily won an elimination of the Roses Are Red Stakes. (6) SKIPPIN BY will likely get a more aggressive steer here from Gingras which makes her a dangerous rival. (1) VENUS DELIGHT could easily trip out near the front here and come rolling by late off a covered trip; consider her for Pick 5 bets. (2) EMPRESS DEO is another that drops out of stakes company and she should make the Super, if not outfinish this prediction.
(4) HANNELORE HANOVER took a new life's mark last week in an elimination win that was as easy as it was impressive. She looks like the Best Bet on this card to me. (8) ELEGANT SERENITY was passively driven in her elimination but did have some trot to offer late. She could provide some exotics value here. (3) RULES OF THE ROAD was cleverly-driven to victory in her elimination and would be tough if she can steal a breather here at some point. (7) SHAKE IT CERRY was no match for the choice and seems likely for a minor award here considering her current form.
(5) DOVUTO HANOVER made two early moves to the front last week and despite coming under third quarter pressure he pulled away to an easy win; call to repeat. (1) DUC DORLEANS ripped off a big mile last week and when he gets good he can put two or three big miles in a row together; using. (3) HIS BOY ELROY could not reach the choice last time despite benefitting from a very good trip. He can share here but is unlikely for the win. (9) THUNDER STEELER has reached his best form but couldn't handle the choice last week and now draws a worse post. He can take a smaller share, however.
(5) DAYSON was a sharp winner of the faster elimination last week and having Gingras driving only adds to his appeal; top call. (3) WILL TAKE CHARGE displayed speed both early and late in his mile last week and now draws a much better post; exacta factor. (6) BAR HOPPING was pinned in for part of the stretch last week but was still no match for the choice late. He is a factor, but would need to trip out to beat the choice. (4) DIA MONDE showed some grit winning the other elimination but will need to be even faster here to challenge the choice.
(2) BETTOR N BETTER faces easier here and draws an inside post for the first time in a long time. Don't be surprised if Tetrick sends her on a brush-and-crush mission on the backside. (5) MARLEE B was hard-driven early last week to make front then dug in gamely late to hang in for the win. Toss her on Pick 4 tickets off that gritty effort. (1) SOUTHWIND GEISHA has raced well for most of this meet and will be passing many of these down the lane. (6) TWIN B INSPIRING is a bit of a head-scratcher having missed five weeks yet dropping from the top class. She may need this trip.
(5) ELLIS PARK faces his easiest field in several weeks and should get an honest pace to chase here. He has options starting from the middle of the gate but will likely get involved earlier here. (4) REVEREND HANOVER set some strong fractions last week then dug in for a gritty win. He is the main danger to the choice. (7) JINS SHARK has developed into a solid competitor and will be heard from again here. (8) ERLE DALE N is another that is in good form but he may have to change tactics here and try a late move.
(4) LEGAL PROCESS was involved in a blanket finish last week in her second good performance in a row. Moving inside gives her a better chance of starting up earlier; slight nod. (8) LIGHTS GO OUT went a big uncovered trip last week and just failed; using. (1) VICTORIA SEMALU stands a good chance of working out a nice trip near the lead and she has upset potential here. (3) BROOKDALE SHADOW moves up off a solid win but she is capable of turning up her game; using.
(2) DARLINONTHEBEACH laid down some serious third quarter speed last week then coasted to victory down the lane. She would be very tough here with a repeat of that mile. (7) PURE COUNTRY was softened up enough around the last turn to get her beat last week. She is a formidable foe and could get a better trip here. (6) L A DELIGHT was a good second to the choice after racing uncovered for most of the second half and she isn't out of this. (3) GOOD WILL HANOVER tripped out to win last week and while she certainly has the credentials, a lesser award seems more likely here.
(4) ALWAYS B MIKI makes his fifth start of the campaign here in the Mohawk Gold Cup and with no Mel Mara to deal with, he gets the top call in this field. (6) SHAMBALLA couldn't be better and should get an honest pace to stalk. (1) BETTORS EDGE could trip out from the inside here and re-emerge for a share late. (3) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN has put a solid campaign together and should be good for a minor share here racing near the front.
(3) LADY SHADOW produced some big speed last week and was an impressive elimination winner. She picks up Gingras here and it seems sure that she will to try to bottom out this field down the backside. (5) SANDBETWEENURTOES went too good of a trip to lose last week but was nailed right on the wire. She can make things interesting here with a better trip. (4) ANDROVETTE shoots for her fourth Roses Are Red win and after last week's thrilling win it would be foolish to dismiss her completely. (2) SOLAR SISTER is fresh, sharp and dangerous and it appears that McNair stuck with her and gave up the drive on the choice.
(3) BETTING LINE went a tremendous trip to win his elimination, pacing consecutive sub-27 quarters while racing uncovered. He is a deserving favorite and will take some beating in this edition of the North America Cup. (5) MICHAELS VICTORY took a big shuffle at the start of his elimination then closed willingly. He has an upset chance if he can get a good trip here. (4) BOSTON RED ROCKS was also an uncovered winner of his elimination and is obviously a strong contender. (6) RACING HILL looked like a winner last week when he slid up the inside but a break in stride cost him. He might be overbet off that race but should be in the thick of things.
(4) SINTRA has been one of the sensations of this meet so far. Meeting better here, he will surely be forced to deal with faster splits but he could be that good and trainer Menary is very high on him. (7) NOCTURNAL BLUE CHIP was on the lead to the stretch in his North America Cup elimination and he should find these easier. (6) MAJOR HILL should be up on the pace throughout and can take this with a bit of luck. (1) THE CATAMOUNT KID hasn't missed the top four in a while and should trip well here starting from the inside.
(4) AMERICAN ROCK makes his third start back here and should get a more aggressive steer which may be all it takes to beat this group. (6) SPORTSMANSHIP tipped his hand with a better performance on June 4th and he should be coming fast late here. (10) DIALAMARA couldn't chase down a streaking Duc Dorleans last week but he fits well here and could add some value to Pick 4 tickets. (3) MITT JAGGER fired a 26 2/5 kicker on Monday and he is another in with a shot here.
(8) SHADOW PLACE got held up following dead cover in the third quarter last week while the winner was sprinting away. He still finished well and is a good bet to make the top three here in a race where the focal point will be the big High-5 carryover on mandatory payout night. (6) CARACCI HANOVER takes a substantial class drop and is a solid bet to finish in the top 5 leaving from a good post. (12) ASAP HANOVER will need to work out a trip as the second trailer, but his form is solid and he should make the ticket if the post doesn't doom him. (7) COBALT MAN ships in and goes for the top trainer and he should be blasting for good position at the start. (2) BUCKEROO is fresh and likes Mohawk and is one of several to consider for the bottom rungs of the ticket in as wide-open a race as you will see.