06/14/2012 3:24PM

Mohawk: Saturday 6/16 Analysis


Best Bet: SWEET LOU (7th)     Spot Play: FRENCHFRYSNVINEGAR (6th)

Race 1

(7) ST LADS HE MAN was claimed right back by Tony O’Sullivan. That is always a good sign. Gelding has a nice speed advantage over his main rivals. (9) HURTIN ALBERTAN couldn’t close in on the leaders on a night when speed was winning and was in too tough two starts back. (10) MARTHA MAXINE drops back in for a tag but might wind up having to find a tuck then tough it uncovered.

Race 2

(1) FRED AND GINGER takes on a short field and can get away with soft fractions. (4) OK COMMANDER raced well at Tioga. Will he bring his form north of the border? (7) LONESOME ATTACK is sharp enough to play with this group.

Race 3

(3) CHECK ME OUT has yet to display the dominant form that made her the possible Hambletonian favorite during the winter. If she is ready to step forward, she will win this race easily. If she is simply only as good as she was as a rookie, then you wind up with 4-5 on a horse that should be 2-1. Either way, she has a big shot. (2) WIN MISSY B went way too fast on the front on a night when speed was not holding. Considering the fractions, she held her ground reasonably well that night. (4) MAVEN certainly merits a chance in here, but I can’t help but think she is the type that I love to bet at 6-1 but hate to play at 5-2. (9) MISS PARIS trotted a big final quarter over a tiring surface last week. If only she didn’t draw post nine.

Race 4

(1) MAJOR HOTTIE blitzed a lesser field last week and has racked up a super 9 for 34 win rate at Mohawk over the last three years. (9) ST ELMO HERO was raced conservatively last week. He is capable of more if kept closer to the action. (4) STONEBRIDGE TONIC started from post nine and never got involved in his most recent start, but he paced a :52 4/5 final half! (2) IM FEELIN GOOD had a tough uncovered trip from post 10 and should get a smoother journey tonight

Race 5

(3) KNOWS NOTHING is perfect in five career starts. This will certainly be his biggest test to date but the post draw and pace scenario seem to work in his favor regardless of how the race plays out. I was leery of (2) IL MAGO being an underlay in this spot after his strong closing effort in his elimination. Then I noticed that he has shown good early speed in the past and might be able to secure a spot close to the leaders. (8) GUCCIO could be the best horse in this race. Time will tell the tale. He needs some pace help, but has a legitimate shot if they mix it up on the engine.

Race 6

(9) FRENCHFRYSNVINEGAR weakened in the stretch last week but that was a tiring track that was hardly favoring early speed types. Notice two starts back she wired similar foes in 1:52 2/5. (6) CEDAR DOVE gave her all first over and narrowly missed a victory. All she needs is a smooth trip to reverse that loss. (4) PEMBROKE HEAT WAVE charged from last to get the dead heat in her elimination. I like the fact that Brian Sears gets in the bike. (3) CHINA PEARLS was involved in that dea heat. She has won two straight and might be too sharp to ignore.

Race 7

(4) SWEET LOU set a Canadian record in his elimination score and seems to win with such ease. I could spend all day trying to come up with scenarios where he loses, but I really believe he will win regardless of trip. We could be looking at an all-time great horse. (8) WARRAWEE NEEDY completes my chalk exacta play. He put in a huge mile of 1:48 1/5 to be second in his 3yo debut; enough said. (7) A ROCKNROLL DANCE showed me something by coming first over and still making the final despite getting interfered with in the stretch. (3) TIME TO ROLL is one of those horses that could be very dangerous if sitting behind cover into a fast pace. (5) THINKING OUT LOUD has been progressing nicely.

Race 8

(3) PANMUNJOM posted his best effort in quite a while when he posted a 1:22 final three-quarters last week. Tetrick in the bike is a nice plus, too. (5) ROADSIDE DELIGHT is long overdue for a win and certainly in the proper class. (7) ALL TIGER N has early speed and should be using it. (6) LIVE AND LEARN comes in sharp but is 0 for 6 here since 2010.

Race 9

(5) AMERICAN JEWEL is a play on the come, so to speak. While I think she is best on current form, I also think she might just be sitting on a huge mile. (9) ECONOMY TERROR was odds-on versus American Jewel last week and seems likely to go off at very healthy odds; don’t ignore her. (3) BIG MCDEAL is hard to fault. I wouldn’t be shocked if she won.

Race 10

(4) BETTERTHANCHEDDAR has yet to face top level condition since entering the older ranks this year. That said, I’m expecting big things from this very talented son of Bettor’s Delight. (8) WE WILL SEE raced decently at Tioga against a much better overall field than he tackles today; major player. (3) GOLDEN RECEIVER reunites with Sears. (7) RIVER SHARK is very sharp now.

Race 11

(2) B LO ZERO drops below the level of the claim for 40 percent winning trainer Casie Coleman. I see some legitimate excuses in his racing lines. (1) AUDREYS DREAM raced well the last time he hooked up with Jamieson. (8) OUTRAGEOUS ART has been racing better lately; coming around.

Race 12

(4) WORLD AWAY flashed some early speed and faced some stretch traffic last week. Those signs of life could be an indicator of form reversal. (7) LAST CALL HANOVER drops and keeps Jamieson. (2) BOMBS AWAY is another dropper; barn change.

Race 13

(9) LOST IN PANSLATION went a bit too fast on a speed tiring track last week. He switches to conditioned foes tonight and could easily perk up. (2) DOIN TIME TOGETHER gets a nice driver switch. (8) POUVOIR DUHARAS needs pace help but is capable.