05/05/2016 4:23PM

Mohawk: Saturday 5/7 Analysis

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Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

 

20-CENT PICK 5: 1,2,5/1,3,4/2,4,6/4,9/3,5 = $21.60

EARLY PICK 4: 4,9/3,5/3,8,9/4,6,7 = $36

LATE PICK 4: 1,2,7,8/6/7/2,3,4,7,8 = $20

MEET STATS: 54 - 163 / $351.10  BEST BETS: 10 - 16 / $43.40

SPOT PLAYS: 3 - 16 / $15.40

Best Bet: RISE UP NOW (10th)

Spot Play: DUC DORLEANS (5th)

Race 1

(2) TOPCORNERTERROR exits Flamboro's top class to this spot where he should be able to make good use of his ample early speed. He will likely try to bottom out the field at some point of the mile and might just succeed. (5) UF BETTORS HANOVER was out a long way at Flamboro but hung in there for 2nd. He fits this class and will be coming late. (1) LISVINNIE comes off a sharp win vs. lesser but he did take advantage of a great trip that night which is unlikely to be repeated here. A minor award is predicted for him.

Race 2

(4) WAASMULA was flying late last week but was simply too far back to make an impact on the leaders. The short field and better post play to her strengths; top call. (1) OUR HOT MAJORETTE got room late but fell just short in an excellent comeback race. She should be a tough foe here. (3) WITCH DALI looked beaten and battled back in a great performance last week. She is not out of this very contentious dash either.

Race 3

(2) OLE JACK MAGIC drops to a level where he should be very competitive and he had several productive starts over the Mohawk surface last year. Expect an aggressive steer here from Christoforou. (6) THANKYOUKESSEL races better when placed closer to the front early and is another that will likely be blasting for position here; using. (4) SWAN ON ONE finished quickly in both her qualifier and season's debut. This is the type that Zeron could improve quickly and pop at a big price with; beware.

Race 4

(9) WAR N MUNN used a 53 1/5 back 1/2 to blow his opponents away last week. He is a bit inconsistent but if the good War N Munn shows up here, he will be tough to beat. (4) GERRIES SPORT was also a very impressive winner last week and must be used in multi-race tickets as the likely favorite. (2) SHOCKING IMAGE produced his best race ever last week and this maiden is clearly a much-improved horse that can make the ticket here.

Race 5

(3) DUC DORLEANS is classy and fast and should be able to do some damage in this field in his return to Mohawk. Note that his life's mark of 1:48 4/5 taken here last year. (5) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN raced okay here last week despite missing almost three weeks. He could be expected to go forward off that effort. (7) PROVEN DESIRE has hit the board in 21 of his last 28 starts and is a good one to use at a price in exotic wagers.

Race 6

(9) HURRICANE HAZEL couldn't reach a strong winner last week but did motor home for 2nd. She is one of the best in here but will need to work out a winning trip form out there. (8) ITS ALL ABOUT SAM was a good Grassroots performer last year and looks ready to produce a good effort in his season's debut here based on the last quarters that he has been firing in his qualifiers. (3) VICS ROYAL LADY was hung a long way last week but didn't fade badly. She will likely try to wire these and just might if she can get a breather at some point.

Race 7

(4) MOONLIT DANCE got back on track vs. lesser last week but looked a bit like her old self, taking a lot of air and still grinding out a win; call to repeat. (6) LIGHTS GO OUT drops from the top class and her potent late kick should play much better here. (7) DELIGHTFUL HILL also drops out of the top class while making her third start of the year. She can be expected to wake up with a much better effort here.

Race 8

(7) LAY LADY LAY got hung out in a rapid third 1/4 last week which led to her undoing. The pace should be more even here which should work out in her favor; slight nod. (1) AMERICAN CURVES was a sharp winner in the first leg of this series then skipped the second leg. She is the filly to beat here starting from the inside. (8) DIVAS IMAGE closed swiftly in her season debut and is one to consider for the bottom of exotic wagers at a price here.

Race 9

(6) WIGGLE IT JIGGLEIT shows up here to tune up for next week's Confederation Cup which did not need eliminations. He comes up against a couple of sharp horses here, but should prove best. (1) NICKLE BAG set a new life's mark last week and couldn't be any sharper. He should complete a small exacta. (4) STATE TREASURER makes his 2nd start of the year after a career year last season. He didn't win until his third start last year and that pattern will likely be repeated here.

Race 10

(7) RISE UP NOW was flying late last week in an impressive comeback race. He gets to take a class drop and should prove hard to beat here. (6) HOPIESDRAGNINTHEDO has been competitive in some quick races in the top class at Pompano and could provide some Pick 4 value here. (2) HIS BOY ELROY is trip-dependent but would be far more dangerous if he could latch onto some live cover here, which is possible.

Race 11

(3) ARTHUR BLUE CHIP was first-up in a 1:49 flat mile last week in his first start since February. That effort should have him perfectly tightened up for this race vs. lesser; top call. (4) COOL ROCK also drops down to a level that should be better for him and has really hit his stride racing at Mohawk; using. (9) THE REV drops but the top two are no bargain and neither is his post. He will likely take a smaller share.

Race 12

(3) EASY LOVER HANOVER left hard then got shuffled right out of the race at Pocono but now faces easier and should be tough in the finale. (2) RAFA grinded it out first-over last week and his toughness should be respected here. (7) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE raced great off the claim to just miss to the one above. He should get a big piece of this. (4) MACH CODE is another coming off a good effort that should make his presence felt here. (8) IMKEEPTHISGUY will be passing horses late and can hit the Super or High 5 ticket.

[DRF HARNESS LIVE: Real-time insights from the DRF Harness team this Saturday at 7:00 p.m.]