05/28/2015 2:59PM

Mohawk: Saturday 5/30 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

3,4,10/1,10/1,3,4/1,4,9 = $36

 

LATE $1 PICK 4: 1,2,3/1,5,6/3,5,8/2,7 = 54

MEET STATS: 93 - 292 / $536.60  BEST BETS: 12 - 26 / $42.50

SPOT PLAYS: 4 - 24 / $40.80

Best Bet: STUBBORN BELLE (3rd)

Spot Play: MAJOR HOMER (10th)

Race 1

(1) QUIT SMOKING NOW plunges in class and gets major post relief, a formula which has worked before for him; top call in the opener. (8) PAPER BACKED LINDY also drops and should be a major contender with these if he stays on gait throughout. (9) JUSTCALLMERONALD has also faced better recently and had gait issues. This is a tough dash to figure out to start the card.

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Race 2

(5) CHEYENNE REIDER continues to roll right along in this class. He never looks great doing it down the lane, but, he gets the job done. He should work out another great trip here. (8) GRANDE SEELSTER was too far back last time in a quick mile. He is obviously sharp but Drury needs to leave in the top 3 to give this one a chance. (6) TWOMICKEYTRIP is priced to sell for the first time after missing a month's action. Tough call, but he obviously has the speed to win this if ready and somewhat right.

Race 3

(2) STUBBORN BELLE returned to action with an easy win in her elimination and is the one to knock off here. (6) MEADOW SEELSTER miscued early but made a tremendous recovery to finish second to the choice; threat. (3) SECOND SISTER stole two :29 quarters after the big favorite broke and it was game over in her elim. She is a contender but it won't be that easy here.

Race 4

(4) ATOMIC MILLION AM has hit the exacta 19 times out of 22 starts in the past two years and should get a good pace to chase here in his return to Mohawk. (3) CARACCI HANOVER is razor-sharp and has upset potential if kept close enough early. (10) MELMERBY BEACH miscued early last time but the lead looks there for the taking even starting from the 10-hole if he can stay flat. Note the huge trip two back.

Race 5

(1) CLIMB HIGHER blew up when well in front now adds trotting hopples which will likely straighten out the breaking issue; call to make amends. (10) LITTLE RED CHEV ambushed the field from this post last time at a big price. A repeat isn't out of the question. (3) ELIZA DREAM has been racing consistently for weeks and is a good one for exotic wagers.

Race 6

(3) SOLAR SISTER has been lights out twice in a row from the 10-hole to start the year. She should be even tougher from a better post here. (1) MUCH ADOO has shown rapid improvement and is in with a shot here at a price. (4) WRANGLER MAGIC was raced easily last week in her seasonal bow and is a dangerous contender here with $127K on the line.

Race 7

(4) PRECOCIOUS BEAUTY had three qualifiers in 11 days preparing for this 4YO debut and meets a field she should be able to handle; on top. (1) BEACH GAL disappointed last time but can rebound here on the slight class drop. (9) REGIL ELEKTRA ships in and moves to Robinson's barn; interesting.

Race 8

(3) MITTCENT VAN GOGH had a tightener, faces easier and gets a positive driver change. Look for a much more aggressive steer here. (2) THEPANINSULAHOTEL hasn't win this year yet but might do just that if he can repeat his last mile; dangerous. (1) ARAMBLIN HANOVER continues to tag along for on-the-board finishes which is likely repeated again here.

Race 9

(1) ELLIS PARK closed in :25 2/5 and could still manage only fourth in his latest mile at The Big M. He returns to his favorite track razor-sharp; top call. (5) VEGAS VACATION closed a big gap in his first start in more than a year and will soon be King of the hill again, it appears. He may still need another start or two to show his best, however(6) SHAMBALLA flashed his wicked late speed to beat lesser now missed 4 weeks action; mixed signals.

Race 10

(3) MAJOR HOMER faced some salty three-year-olds twice in a row and wasn't disgraced. These are more his people and he should be a square price. (5) ROCK ME AMASTREOS got scorched chasing a wicked early pace and should get a much more favorable pace scenario here. (8) ASLAN will be coming late and the slight class rise can be overcome if he is close enough turning home.

Race 11

(7) THUNDER STEELER drops in class and goes here for Waxman, who has had great success with this one at Mohawk; top call but he will likely be a short price. (2) NIRVANA SEELSTER also drops and is a sharp foe that could trip out; beware. (6) CAPTIVE AUDIENCE continues to be a win-shy type but should get a piece of the Super. (4) ODDYSEUS BLUE CHIP cut a wild pace last time and paid the price. He is likely to follow along for a share here. (1) BURNING SHORE is also one that is good for completing bottom rungs of vertical wagers.

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