04/30/2015 4:29PM

Mohawk: Saturday 5/2 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

1,8/1,2,46/3/1,5,6 = $24

 

LATE $1 PICK 4: 6,8,9/1,4,5/3,5/3,6 = $36

MEET STATS: 39 - 126 / $194.00  BEST BETS: 7 - 11 / $22.60 SPOT PLAYS: 1 - 10 / $10.60

Best Bet: SHAMBALLA (6th)

Spot Play: ARCTIC TALE (5th)

Race 1

(4) WINDSONG GEANT showed some life in the stretch Monday night now moves back into Herlihy's barn where he has had success in the past; top call in the opener. (6) BURNIN MONEY gets class relief here and will be looking to earn some money; dangerous. (5) MARKET RALLY was a big earner last year and moves into Baillargeon's barn for her 2015 debut. She will need to find more speed in the last 1/4 than she showed in her qualifiers to be competitive here.

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Race 2

(4) ETRUSCAN HANOVER set a stakes record and took a new life's mark last Saturday demolishing his foes in the Don Mills Final. Anything close to a repeat dusts this field. (3) CANTABS FORTUNE had a useful 2015 debut closing well off excess cover for third. She looks like the main threat to the choice. (2) SEAWIND PASCALE also exits the Don Mills Series where she performed decently.

Race 3

(3) GOOD FRIDAY THREE continues to show rapid improvement and should get a great trip here in this short field; top call. (5) AMERICAN ROCK was a bit short late and should be tighter back on the 7-day cycle. (6) THE WAYFARING MAN got hung first-over but didn't tire badly in a decent 2015 debut. He too should improve here.

Race 4

(1) LIGHTS GO OUT went a long mile vs. a winner that was taking an edge in her best performance of 2015. She gets post relief finally and should be a major player here. (8) MISTRESSTOTHESTARS went a long mile and paid the price. One of these weeks she will trip out; don't give up on her too easily. (3) FAROUCHE HANOVER showed some late interest first time out for trainer Nixon. She could get involved here at a big price.

Race 5

(6) ARCTIC TALE was poised second-over to win last out when he miscued. He was taken from that dash by trainer Johnson and could pop at a price here if he has him straightened out. (2) PAPER BACKED LINDY was hung the mile last time and predictably faded. He should get a much better trip here from post two. (3) HLDONTGHTTOYURDREAMS fits this class well and the inside draw helps; using.

Race 6

(3) SHAMBALLA drops for his second start of 2015 and was visibly motoring down the lane in his debut. He should take this group. (7) EVENIN OF PLEASURE got his desired trip and picked up a nice win as a result. He's the main danger. (9) ASLAN closed well but was too far back early. He likely suffers a similar fate here.

Race 7

(5) MICHAELS TURN puts his perfect record on the line and while these look a bit tougher he looks best. (1) R CHOOCHOO CHARLIE comes off a big mile and is the main threat leaving from the rail. (6) I AM SPECIAL wired an easier group cutting soft fractions. These are tougher.

Race 8

(8) MELMERBY BEACH beat better than this group a few times last year. He gets lasix for his 2015 debut and showed enough speed in his qualifier to be ready to topple these. (6) PUSH BACK has been remarkably consistent in this class and is the main threat. (9) NIRVANA SEELSTER takes a class drop and is also in with a shot here.

Race 9

(1) DIALAMARA returns to a 7-day cycle here and holds a strong hand from the inside in a short field. (5) STAR COVER was kept in last time but showed good late power and should improve here. (4) ARQUE HANOVER danced some big dances last year and wasn't disgraced. This group is within his range if he's ready to produce close to his best first out.

Race 10

(3) CAMAES FELLOW is at his very best when he is firing off final 1/4's that are quicker than the opening split as he has done in his past three. He could take these at another good price. (5) STATE TREASURER is obviously the one to beat but he has bigger fish to fry which should be taken into consideration here. (6) PISTON BROKE continues to take shares while showing hanging tendencies; small share again.

Race 11

(6) HUNCH MAN got hooked up in an all-out speed duel in the third 1/4 Monday night and tired as a result. This group is easier; one more chance. (3) MIRAMONTMAN loves this track and has popped at big prices here in the past; beware.(2) ARI ALLSTAR can be competitive here but needs a better start.

Race 12

(4) TRACK MASTER D moves in from Yonkers and joins Moreau's barn; top call. (1) CAMS TUX went a big mile on the rim and was an unlucky loser. He should be a threat here, too. (6) HES A SENSATION tried it first up in a rapid mile and was one-paced. He can share here. (5) MONTE CHRISTO warmed up great and transferred that into a win Monday night. He is likely for a minor share on the class rise, however. (8) BURNING SHORE changed barns, took a break, added lasix and converted with a win. These are a bit tougher.

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