05/14/2015 2:43PM

Mohawk: Saturday 5/16 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

7,10/1,2,4,6,8/2,5/2,6 = $40

 

LATE $1 PICK 4: 2,6/4,8/3,6,9/1 = $12

MEET STATS: 65 - 213 / $370.70  BEST BETS: 10 - 19 / $32.60

SPOT PLAYS: 3 - 17 / $36.00

Best Bet: ASLAN (10th)

Spot Play: JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL (5th)

Race 1

(4) WHISKEY TAX makes his 2015 debut off a good qualifier in vs. a field he can beat. Having the owner/trainer in the bike should boost the price, too; top call in the opener of a good betting card. (1) ADVERSITY parlayed a nice trip into a lifetime best win now steps up one level. He should get a decent trip here, too. (2) EXTRACURRICULAR gets an inside post to work with and is another that is capable in an evenly-matched field.

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Race 2

(3) MAGiC MADNESS was all business from an outer post last out while taking a new life's mark. These are tougher but she projects to get a good stalking trip here behind lots of early speed. (2) I AM SPECIAL has been on a tear for Moreau and Filion but is sure to get tested here and possibly softened up. (7) YOURE MAJESTIC was one of the better 2YO locally last year and is capable of big early speed. Her conditioner sends 'em out ready off layoffs; beware.

Race 3

(3) CAPTIVE AUDIENCE was way too far back early to make an impact last week but had plenty of pace at the end of the mile. He should get a better spot early and have lots of speed to stalk; top call. (2) THREE OF CLUBS tried the Confederation Cup elims with no luck. These are easier. (4) CAMAES FELLOW was given an easy trip from an outer post last week but likely blasts with the intent to last here.

Race 4

(7) NAT A VIRGIN was engaged in a cut-throat duel in the third 1/4 last week and left wanting late. It's unlikely any of these throws down a 26 3/5 split like the winner of that dash did after the 1/2. She should make amends here. (10) D GS PESQUERO has faced much better than most of these all year and is a true contender here, even from post 10. (5) WILDCAT BEAUTY almost pulled off a huge upset after tracking a big speed duel and closing latest; a minor share is more likely here.

Race 5

(4) JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL went a big first-up trip last out and was unlucky to get nailed by a pylon-skimmer. She may be a good price again as she rarely gets bet. (6) POWER MOVE takes a class plunge and likely gets sent early by Drury here; the one to catch. (8) RECKON IM READY put up some quick splits then tired first time out for trainer Adams. He can go better here.

Race 6

(5) PIERCE HANOVER when last seen wasn't far behind Artspeak in a $565K stake. He looks ready to embark on an ambitious sophomore campaign here; top call. (2) BOB BEN AND JOHN was excellent early in his 2YO campaign and looks sufficiently-prepped to be a big factor here off the shelf. (1) CLOSING CREDITS moved to the front mid-race and put up some sharp splits in the rain but couldn't close the deal. The top two here are very tough.

Race 7

(2) STATE TREASURER was much better last week and almost lasted on the lead. Third off the layoff should be the charm here for the classy veteran. (6) EVENIN OF PLEASURE almost pulled off a pylon-skimming upset that he is famous for. He's in great form now and is dangerous. (4) NICKLE BAG was stymied by poor cover and could rebound with a better result here.

Race 8

(8) Undefeated REVEREND HANOVER starts his quest for the North America Cup right here and should be able to handle this group but will offer no value at the windows. (4) MELMERBY BEACH broke stride in his Confederation Cup elimination but is capable of high speed if he minds his manners. (3) MR DENNIS has been lights out on Lasix but now steps into the deep end of the pool here.

Race 9

(6) CALGARY SEELSTER is pacing huge last quarters and need only be close enough turning home to vault past these. (9) ROCK ME AMASTREOS moved into Auciello's barn, added Lasix and steamrolled to a huge win. He steps up looking to throw down the same kind of mile; using. (3) BURNING SHORE went a big mile first-up in the driving rain and only tired late; he is racing well and is a factor here.

Race 10

(1) ASLAN takes a big class drop to face a group he should be able to beat in his sleep. (4) HAIL THE TAXI was a good second to a powerful winner last week and continues to improve; the main threat. (8) MIRAMONTMAN is capable of lighting up the tote board; don't underestimate him. (9) CRUIZIN KC dips in class and could share here at a price. (6) FRIDAYNIGHTFLIGHT is a handy sort that should stick around for a share of the high-5 ticket.

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