05/22/2013 11:27AM

Mohawk Racetrack: Thursday 5/23 Analysis


Race 4 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (25 - 45 / $86.50): Social Scene (11th)

Spot Play: Winbak Warrior (7th) 

Race 1

This is a wide-open race to kick-off the Mohawk meet, but (2) SONNEWALD draws inside, comes out of Moreau’s barn and finished third in this class last week. He trotted in 1:57 and that should be good enough to win this week. (5) SCHOOLHOUSE ROCK will make his second start of his career and qualified very well. Henriksen’s horses are always in top form when they arrive on this circuit and he may provide a price. (8) ATLANTA moves into the Alagna barn and ships north onto this circuit; can step up. 

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Race 2

(4) PROFOUND BEAUTY finished second in this class last week and I feel she’s ready to win in her third start of the campaign. She comes from the Gillis barn and draws inside. (1) NET JET has been knocking on the door in recent starts and can’t be overlooked in this class. Last week she had to overcome post 10 and draws the rail this week. (3) RELEASE THE MAGIC comes from trainer McIntosh and finally draws well. She made a miscue last week, which I’m going to overlook. She’ll need a trip, but shows gate-speed and likely will offer a price. This race is very wide-open. 

Race 3

(2) NORTHERN BULLET is fresh off an impressive win last week in just his first start of the season. I feel he’s ready to win once again at this higher level. He draws inside and will likely utilize his gate-speed. (6) PHOTO MASS is also fresh off a win in 1:57 3/5. It looks like trainer Jamieson has him at his best and a repeat effort makes him a top threat. (4) KNOCKOUT BABE likely will offer a price. She finished second in this class last week and with another great trip, she is capable of being top three.

Race 4

(6) OOZIES FINALE is a horse that I’m hoping will provide a price. This isn’t a deep maiden level and this filly shows enough speed to win. She’ll need the right off-the-pace trip, but if she paces home like she did last week, I feel she’s very capable. (7) KAMKAR KUTIE has been knocking on the door in her last pair of starts. She’s also provided high odds in her past few starts and comes from the Auciello barn. (9) A FIESTY X AMPLE scored a dominating victory at Western Fair last week in her first start of the season. She shows gate-speed and if she’s not hard-used in the early going, she’s capable of dropping major seconds.

Race 5

(4) MACH AWAY has won two of her last three starts, including a victory last week. She draws well, shows terrific gate-speed and likely will be aggressively driven. (5) LARK SEELSTER enjoys racing from off-the-pace and has a solid record this season. If she’s well positioned turning for home, she has a great late kick. (2) GLOW STICK comes from the Coleman barn and that’s the major reason for my selection. She draws inside and Coleman has an unmatchable record for first-time starters.

Race 6

(4) BWT TAJ overcame post 10 in his most recent start en route to victory. He draws much better this week and that 1:56 3/5 effort makes him a top contender. (8) SUPER DUKE will make his fourth start of the season and finished second in this class last week. He likes to race from behind and will need a trip. (10) ENOUGH ABOUT YOU can get off-the-gate very well, but might be pressed hard to do it. If she can be well positioned early in the mile, then she’s a factor and may provide a price.

Race 7

(4) WINBAK WARRIOR is a better horse than he’s been showing and draws much better than last week. He has gate-speed and should be forwardly placed this week. (10) GARETH NOURRIR hit the board at this level last week and has the ability to overcome post 10. He’ll also add Lasix for the third straight week. (7) PACIFIC WESTERN is very capable in here and may offer a price. He’s not on his game right now, so I’m looking for a better effort.

Race 8

(1) WILDCAT ART has four wins from seven starts this season. He draws well and is fresh off a win in this class. (3) CORPORATE SHARRRK hasn’t won yet this season, but he’s finished second in three of his last four starts. He draws inside, has gate-speed and likely will get a lot of consideration. (5) BEEEYOUUUUUU has only missed the board twice from 13 starts this season He’s classified accordingly and likely won’t offer a price.

Race 9

(8) TALBOTCREEK JEWELY is fresh off a win and is very capable of winning at this level. She moves back onto this circuit and although she’s facing the boys, she’s capable of winning at this bottom level. (1) PROETEGE SEELSTER hasn’t had the best season so far, but he received some time off after a pair of breaks and qualified well. He draws the rail and shouldn’t be overlooked at this bottom class. (6) O U GUYS hasn’t raced in two years and therefore may provide a price. He qualified well and although he may need a start or two, I’m going to try him this week.

Race 10

(1) EXPRESSO YOURSELF has been assigned post 10 in his last two starts. This week he draws the rail and will be much better placed in the early going. He has enough speed to win and this isn’t a deep field. (7) MARATOGA has finished second in his last two of three starts this season. She’s been the favorite in her last two starts and failed to find the winner’s circle. (2) LILY REI draws inside and comes out of the Gillis barn. She’s hit the board in two of her last three starts and once again is a contender.

Race 11

(3) SOCIAL SCENE cruised to a comfortable score last week in her seasonal debut. She does move up in class, but this class isn’t much tougher. Don’t expect a price on this Coleman entry. (5) SOMEWHEREINHEAVEN missed the board once from six starts last season and qualified very well last week. She’s qualified three times and at this level, I think she’ll offer a low price. (4) BURSTIN BUBBLES hasn’t hit the board in three starts this season but can get off-the-gate very well. She’ll likely be aggressively driven by Davis, Jr.

Race 12

(7) OYE VERA BIZZIE has won four straight and two on this circuit for trainer Moreau. She remains in the same class and is the horse to beat in my opinion. (9) ST LADS MORGAN also won at this level last week and draws outside. She’s a good option to consider for the exactor. She’s always a top contender in this class. (10) NORVENA HANOVER will have to overcome post 10 and should offer a price. She has gate-speed and with the right trip, I feel she can hit the board.