05/23/2013 2:49PM

Mohawk Racetrack: Saturday 5/25 Analysis


Race 4 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: BRUCE THE BRAVE (3rd)

Spot Play: THE LADIES MAN (7th)

Race 1

(2) STRAWBERRY WINE has a good record this season, draws inside and shows enough speed to win at this level. She gets off the gate very well and should be well placed. (7) CIMERONKEN probably has the quickest gate-speed in this field and he likely will be aggressively-driven by Davis, Jr. He's capable of being a part of the triactor, but will need a trip. I'm price shopping with him. (3) BACK TO PEACE had some time off and was assigned post 10 in his return last week. He draws much better and I'm looking for a better performance.

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Race 2

(7) CRAWFISH CREEK has a very good win record this season and comes out of the Moreau barn. He finished second in this class last week and returns once again as a top threat. (8) CASHEM IN also finished second in this class last week and again will get consideration. He'll need a trip, but this isn't a deep field and he's very versatile. (2) CREIGHTON HANOVER has been claimed in three of his last four starts. He's got a solid record this season, draws inside and is a good option for the triactor.

Race 3

(4) BRUCE THE BRAVE was an easy winner last week by open lengths. He trotted a very strong mile and although he moves up in class, I still feel he's the horse to beat. (7) STAR PHOTO moves back onto this circuit after racing at Western Fair. He's classified accordingly by trainer Moreau and he shows enough trot to be a top threat. (2) HIDDEN IDENTITY should be much better in his second start of the season. Last week he was conservatively driven and I expect he'll be well positioned this week.

Race 4

(3) ANDERLECHT gets major class relief and that's the main reason for my selection. He was timed in 1:49 2/5 last week and any type of repeat effort makes him a winner. (9) TWIN B IMPRESSIVE also went a sub-1:50 mile last week and drops in class. He'll have to overcome post nine, but he comes from Moreau's barn and he's very capable. (4) SPEED AGAIN doesn't like to win, but has been racing very well in recent starts. He hasn't missed the board in four outings and draws well.

Race 5

(3) DUKE OF DONEGAL made the front last week from post nine and had to settle for second. He draws much better and shouldn't be as hard-used to earn the front. (10) GOSHEN SEELSTER has finished in the top three in two of his last three starts. He does have post 10, but trainer Henriksen always has his horses in top form when racing on this circuit. (1) NORTHERN SPARK draws inside and shows gate-speed. He also drops in class, which certainly increases his chances.

Race 6

This is a terrific race, featuring some top three-year-olds. (3) CAPTIVE AUDIENCE put into a solid effort in his first start of the campaign last week. He closed very well and although he finished second, he got beat by an older horse and I feel he'll drop more seconds. (7) FOOL ME ONCE remains a perfect two-for-two, but this is his toughest test so far this season. He's certainly capable and enjoyed a successful campaign last year. (2) TARPON HANOVER closed very well last week, but was too far back. I doubt that will happen this week as he draws better. All these horses likely will be aimed to the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes next Saturday at Mohawk.

Race 7

(2) THE LADIES MAN finally draws inside and has terrific gate-speed when it's called upon. He may offer a price, but if he's forwardly-placed off-the-gate, I like his chances. (5) THEPANINSULAHOTEL also drops in class after finishing third at a higher level. He draws well, has gate-speed and can't be counted out in this class. (9) SMOKIN BEAR drops in class and this class suits him much better. He'll likely be pushed off-the-gate and is a top threat at this level.

Race 8

(10) GABLE BLUE CHIP drops in class and that's the main reason for my selection. He faced tougher competition last week and finished third. He was also interfered with and although with a post 10 start, he's certainly capable at this bottom level. (8) UNCLE GOODFELLOW has finished second in his last two starts. He moves into this condition event, but put in a terrific mile last week. (9) YANOYANOMENOW will debut for Gillis, which will only lower his price. He's been racing well at Maywood and will make his debut on this circuit.

Race 9

(6) MYSTICIAN drops in class after being timed in 1:49 4/5. He used a :26 4/5 final quarter and that mile alone makes him a top threat in here. Also, his back-class can't be overlooked. (8) BETTORS REWARD also drops in class and has been racing very well recently despite not getting a cheque in his last two starts. This classification will only increase his chances. (7) TOP GEAR drops in class where he has proven to be very competitive at. He enjoys leaving the gate and I'd expect to see him well-positioned in the early going.

Race 10

(5) STATE TREASURER will once again look to find the winner's circle before he heads to the Molson Pace next Friday at Western Fair. He scored last week's win very comfortably and the same tactics will likely be used again. (8) ODYSSEUS BLUECHIP has raced terrific since moving into the Johnson barn. He's finished second in his last two starts and once again likely will offer a low price. (7) OK COMMANDER got a good trip last week, but failed to find the winner's circle. He was timed in 1:49 in each of his last two stars.

Race 11

(4) DRAIN DADDY drops out of the Preferred and into this class. At this level he can't be counted out. He hasn't been at his best in recent starts, but he draws well and will look to rebound. (1) STONEBRIDGE ON ICE scored a hard-fought win last week by a nose, and now moves up in class. He draws inside, but based on last week's effort, he's certainly competitive in this field. (9) IDEAL RACE has a lot of back-class to him and comes from the Gillis barn. He's very versatile, but tends to be inconsistent. He finished off his miles well and provides a good price.

Race 12

This is a very tough race to predict, which I feel any one of these horses can win. (10) INSANE IN SPAIN draws outside once again, but this is a wide-open field and this will mark his second start for trainer Gillis. If he can get off-the-gate, I think he's capable and may provide a price. (3) OVERCARD draws inside and is long overdue. If he gets the right off-the-pace trip, he has enough back-class to be very competitive in this field. (9) LEAFS AND WINGS moves onto this circuit and into this class. He's won at this level in the past and I feel he'll appreciate the bitter track. I'd expect to see a price on him.

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