05/25/2013 4:42PM

Mohawk Racetrack: Monday 5/27 Analysis


Race 4 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: SCOTT ROCKS (8th)


Race 1

(7) WATCH THE RHYTHM comes out of the Alagna barn and this horse qualified well last week. This will mark her first start of the season, but she had a good campaign last season despite just three starts. (5) SECRET INGREDIENT made a miscue last start, but I'm going to overlook that. He's had a few weeks off, was timed in 1:57 2/5 just two starts ago and is a good option for the exactor. (6) JUST MAKE BELIEVE finished third in both of his starts this season. He doesn't have the best gate-speed, but continues to improve and drop time.

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Race 2

(7) ROCKIN WIZARD has five wins from seven starts this season and that can't be overlooked. He did all the work in The Diplomat final before tiring in deep stretch. He's had a few weeks off since then and I'd expect to see a better effort. (8) SLIGHT TOUCH is a risky play, in my opinion. If he minds his manners, he's very capable in this field, but could easily make a break as his lines indicate. He's a coin toss. (1) ELLIS PARK was aggressively steered last week from post 10 in his first start of the year. He has been assigned the rail this week and I'm sure that will be taken advantage of.

Race 3

(8) KINETIC KING made a break in stride in his season debut, but put forth a very strong qualifying effort last week. He's a trotter with a lot of speed, but will have to mind his manners. (4) FORK is a coin toss, much like SLIGHT TOUCH in Race 2. FORK is very capable in this class and is often under a conservative steer from Ouellette. If he behaves, he's a 'must have.' (6) BEYOND SANITY drops down in class where he won at just two starts ago. He draws well and has minded his manners in all three starts this season.

Race 4

(2) FUDGE draws inside and is due for his first career win. He's been knocking on the door at this level and comes out of the McIntosh barn. (10) CAMCRUISER HANOVER does have post 10, but has displayed gate-speed to be well positioned in the early going. He raced well last week considering it was his first start of the season. (6) BATTLE GUN is considered a longshot, but shows terrific final quarter speed. He doesn't get off-the-gate the best, so I'm hoping for quick fractions.

Race 5

(1) CANBEC KINGKAZIMIR will make his first start of the season and draws the rail. This isn't a deep field, but he posted a good qualifying effort and I think he can win first start back. (4) SWEET COLT OF MINE was put into the race last week and that translated into a second place finish. He draws better this week and I'd expect to see the same tactics used from MacDonald. (5) SI SEMALU has started off this season very well from four starts, missing the board just once. He's a good option to consider based on his record and he draws inside and likes to be put into the race early.

Race 6

(3) BREES CREEK went a tough trip last week as he was parked the mile from post 10. He draws much better this week and I'm looking for a price. He came home in :26 1/5 last week despite being parked the route. (5) CAN ROCK HANOVER made his debut last week a winning one and can only be better this week. He does move up in class, but comes from a top barn. (4) MAJOR MOVES drops in class and this level is much better suited for him. He'll likely be a longshot, but with the right off-the-pace trip, I think he can hit the board.

Race 7

(9) BURNING SHORE is the logical play in this race. He's won three of his five starts this season and returns to the same level he won at last week. He'll likely be the favourite once again. (8) OK FANTASTIC went a tough trip last week as he was parked the mile. He begins from the same post and enjoys leaving the gate. If he's not hard-used in the early going, he's a top threat. (4) NEVER BEEN TOLD doesn't have the best gate-speed therefore enjoys racing from behind. He finishes his miles very strong, draws well and continues to drop time.

Race 8

(2) SCOTT ROCKS continues to race very well this season. He's yet to miss the board from six starts and raced extremely well two stats ago to finish second in The Diplomat final. He's fresh off a win and draws well for Christoforou. (4) VALIDUS DEO qualified in a speedy time last week for top trainer Alagna. He closed very well, draws inside and appears to be a top threat in this class. (6) EVENIN OF PLEASURE put in a sub-par effort in my opinion last week. He qualified extremely well, but didn't perform as expected last week. He's North America Cup eligible and therefore should be able to handle this group, but I'm not sure he can.

Race 9

(7) WATKINS was the overwhelming favourite last week and found the winner's circle as expected. He's facing the majority of the same rivals and looks like the horse to beat. He's been very consistent this season. (6) AMIGO DE GRANDE raced very well to finish second in this class last week. He exploded off cover and made up countless ground in deep stretch. He draws better and the same strategy will likely occur again. (4) E W FISHER moves up to the top level after a powerful victory last week. He stopped the clock in 1:52 2/5 by over 10 lengths. With any type of repeat effort and he's a major player.

Race 10

(7) SAWBUCK HANOVER has been racing very well in recent starts. He draws the same post as last week and enjoys being put into the race. He certainly has enough speed and is a top contender. (6) NICKLE BAG raced very well last week, considering it was his first start in nearly a month. He closed very well with a :26 1/5 final quarter and can only be better now that he's back on a seven-day rotation. (4) BETTER THAN YOU hasn't missed the board yet in all three starts this season. He draws well, is very versatile and comes from the O'Sullivan barn.

Race 11

(5) DUKE DID IT drops in class after finishing third at a higher level in his most recent start. He draws in the middle of the gate and is very versatile. This isn't a deep field and he's very capable providing the right trip. (7) AMBLE OVER HANOVER also drops in class and this level is much better suited for him. He was timed in 1:52 1/5 last week and that should make him a top candidate. (1) THE DEPUTY IS HOME finished third in this class last week and draws the rail. He tends to be inconsistent, but he returns to the same level and draws better.

Race 12

(3) GALLANT SEELSTER found the winner's circle last week in his first start of the season and was very impressive in doing so. He moves up in class, but draws inside and I think he can handle the jump. (1) BAD BOY MATT had to overcome post 10 last week and finished third. This week, he draws the rail and remains at the same level. He's got one win from 11 starts this season, so I think he's better fit for the exactor. (8) SOLAR SURPRISE hit the board last week in his first start of the year and can only improve this week. I think he'll need a trip and might offer a price.