09/05/2015 12:33PM

Mohawk: Monday 9/7 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:3,6,8/3,7,8/5,8/1,2 = $36

LATE PICK 4:5/3,4/3,5,6/1,4,5,6,8 = $30

MEET STATS: 282 - 914 / $1581.30 BEST BETS: 38 - 82 / $126.30

SPOT PLAYS: 11 - 79 / $86.80


Spot Play: HUNCH MAN (11th)

Race 1

(1) DAYLIGHT RUSH closed impressively for 2nd vs. a heavy favorite in his debut and should beat this group with a better start. The downside is he is most likely to be odds on. (2) BLAYDE HANOVER has only faced open stakes colts and should show plenty of improvement here. (3) STAR OF OZ has shown good speed qualifying but hasn't been able to stay flat racing for money. If Menary has him straightened out he could make some noise here.

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Race 2

(4) DEWEY DONT CHEAT was a predictable winner last week going into that race off a strong 2nd in an OSS Gold race. He should be even sharper coming back quicker and gets the call to repeat. (1) THISLADYSDYNAMITE has won three of her last five and is the one to beat with her sharp early speed and sure gait. (2) DUNVEGAN DON miscued early last time and lost all hope. He was closing quickly every race prior and will be passing most of these late if he stays trotting.

Race 3

(9) WHEELIN N DEALIN takes a big drop and gets Sylvain Filion back here. Expect a win and a short price. (6) CAL CHIPS BROTHER often looks like a threat to win but never gets there. He should complete this exacta. (5) UTOPIA has a penchant for finishing third and should be closing for a piece of this.

Race 4

(8) CREAMPUFF MACDADDY was discounted totally last time and made most of the public pay with a big two move effort. He can repeat here with a similar effort but will drop at least 40 points from his odds last time. (6) FLYHAWK EL DURADO showed nothing as a big chalk last week. Perhaps he didn't like the off track as that performance was too poor to be believed. (3) TORNADO TIM has been racing solidly in the top class out of town and should be on your pick 4 tickets vs. this group.

Race 5

(3) LOVELY ERIN showed some grit at Georgian last week battling most of the way and holding on. She has a nose for the wire with 8 wins from 15 starts and will be tough in here. (8) WARAWEE QUALLY remarkably has recorded 13 seconds in 25 starts and is typically following along near the front. She isn't without a shot but it's obvious where she is more likely to finish. (7) AINSLEYNOELLE had some traffic issues last week and has already proven more than once she can beat this kind; using.

Race 6

(8) ARAZI left hard last time then got shuffled out of contention. If he clears quickly here, he could take this group a long way. (5) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE closed okay from the 10-hole last week and will most likely be driven more aggressively here with the move to the middle of the gate; using. (10) NATES BUCKY overcame a large deficit last time aided by a slowing pace. He's sharp but likely faces a similar task here.

Race 7

(1) EXEMPLAR seems to be recapturing his best form and should get pointed to the front before the 1/2 by Henry here; top call. (2) FORK was an unlucky loser last week when the winner slipped out of the pocket and got the jump on him. He's a major contender here. (5) JUSTALITTLEFASTER drops a bit in class which gives him a better chance to pass them all with his potent late keep. Keep him on your pick 4 tickets.

Race 8

(5) STONEBRIDGE QUEST has proven to be very tough to beat in these Grassroots dashes. Catch her to greet the cashier. (1) OK HEAVENLY was first up against the choice last week and backed up late. If she could land in her pocket early she'd have a better shot. (7) CAVIART SCARLETT has a potent late kick but may not get the needed pace in front of her to grab more than a minor share here.

Race 9

(3) DUBLIN ROSE has won three of her last four in Grassroots company and can win on the lead or stalking the pacesetter. She'll be tough to beat in here. (4) SOUTHWIND GEISHA drops out OSS Golds and has also been a good performer in the Grassroots but will have trouble with the choice here. (5) NORTHERN STARLET is a pace threat but rarely hangs on.

Race 10

(5) CHARMED LIFE hasn't faced company this easy for a long time. She should get back on track here but will be a very short price. (3) MEGO MOSS showed improvement last time and has upset possibilities. He could be rounding back to 2014's excellent form now. (6) BODY BALANCE has been racing against better and was an easy winner in the top class at Georgian last time out.

Race 11

(5) HUNCH MAN drops to the bottom class and should get an aggressive steer here. He's capable of big speed on his best day; call to upset. (8) CAMAES FELLOW made several moves then stopped last time. A better trip here would give him a better chance. (1) WHOSURPAL has raced okay from outer posts on 1/2 milers the past three. He's in with a decent shot here from the inside. (6) UFDRAGONS ROCKET has been in sharp form out of town and is another to consider in this mixed bag. (4) JOHNNY COME LATELY was working outside in a swift pace last time and held on well. He can get a piece of this.

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