09/25/2015 3:44PM

Mohawk: Monday 9/28 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

4,5,7/2,8,10/6,7,8/3,9 = $54

 

LATE PICK 4: 3/2,3,4,5/5,9/3,5,6,7 = $32

MEET STATS: 340 - 1086 / $1898.00  BEST BETS: 48 - 97 / $155.30

SPOT PLAYS: 14 - 93 / $154.30

Best Bet: L A DELIGHT (2nd)

Spot Play: VELOCITY DRIVEN (7th)

Race 1

(1) LUCK O THE IRISH has won four of his last five, his only loss coming in Grand Circuit action. Last time he raced in OSS Gold company he set a new life's mark; top call. (7) SHOW BIZ HALL has been competitive vs. elders but needs to find more late speed to threaten the choice here. (6) DUH BUBBEES would be a big threat here if he goes. He is also entered in the Grassroots Final Saturday night.

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Race 2

(6) L A DELIGHT continues to roll right along and should have no trouble with this group at a very short price. (7) FREE SHOW has excellent early speed and could be the first leader then ride the choice's pocket all the way home for 2nd. (4) THISORTHAT HANOVER has talent and speed but also gait issues. Minor award predicted.

Race 3

(5) MUSCLE UP THE GOAL has faced the best sophomore colt trotters on the continent in his last couple of starts and couldn't threaten. This should be a much easier assignment; top call. (6) SETANTA closed well late last time in his first start in 24 days now adds lasix; beware. (7) ETERNAL QUEST tried it first up against a sharp colt who would be favored if in this race. He can improve if given a better trip here.

Race 4

(5) IM A GIFT was sent first up to chase a very sharp winner last time and tired late. The 2nd-place finisher from that dash has already returned to win; key race? (7) R J B returns from a break and if he can produce an effort similar to his late July performances, he will be right there on the money. (4) NATES BUCKY was a sharp winner three back and excused could be made for his subsequent two miles. Use him in the early pick 4.

Race 5

(8) TOMMYS TROOPER has been showing quicker early speed vs. better than these in his past two starts. Henry will likely be looking to send this one coast-to-coast and very well may succeed. (10) POPLAR DUKE closed strongly in his first start over the Mohawk oval and can be right there vs. these if McNair gets him a good spot early. (2) BEAST MODE has been facing New York Sires Stakes company recently and is obviously is a threat but may be overbet here.

Race 6

(7) MYLITTLESTARSHINE was simply too far back turning for home last week and still passed several horses. Expect Zeron to put her in a better spot from which to pounce here. (6) ROSES IN THE RAIN gets off the half-milers here and gets Filion back which should be two positives; using. (8) SOUTHWIND STRYKER will be a big threat if he can stay trotting but that may be a big 'if'.

Race 7

This race looks loaded with leavers that want the front early which could set it up for stone cold closer (9) VELOCITY DRIVEN; call to upset. (3) ROCK ME AMASTREOS will likely try to impose his will on the other speed and may go all the way if he can steal a breather in one of the first three quarters. (6) DADDY WARBUCKS is another closer that can pass several late if he times his move right.

Race 8

(3) LITTLE RED CHEV raced much better on a helmet most of the way last time which was likely by design considering she was a runaway on the lead two back and broke. Jamieson is likely sending here; top call. (9) CAL CHIPS BROTHER has yet to win this year but raced tough first-over last week and is getting closer. (10) CABERTOSS disappointed last week but keeps Filion and could threaten at a much better price here.

Race 9

(3) DON'T RUSH took a new life's mark last time he contested an OSS Gold event. He should enjoy the drop from facing the very best sophomore trotters in his last few starts. (5) HEMI SEELSTER was conservatively driven last time in a tune-up for this bigger purse. Expect far more aggression early here. (4) COVERT OPERATIVE has raced well all year long and can't be discounted here.

Race 10

(9) THATSOVERYVERYNICE made two moves against the best filly in the division last time and still hung in for third. She should be tough in here as should (5) GOOD WILL HANOVER, who had a better trip and finished 2nd in that race. (6) PARTY IN ROME has been going well and was also entered in the Grassroots Final Saturday night.

Race 11

(3) DAZZLING ROCKETTE paced up a storm in the back 1/2 last week but was too far out of it to contend for the top spot. The post relief will make her a strong contender and likely heavy favorite here. (5) TABOO SEELSTER pressured a solid pace and was only beaten a neck by the choice. She could turn the tables here with a better trip. (6) A LOT OF SENSE gets to leave from the middle of the gate here which should help set up her late charge; contender. (7) B SANTANNAS LOVE was a good second ahead of many of these last week and should make the Super ticket here. (10) MARIGOLD BLOOM hung on for a rare win and now moves to the worst post; minor share is likely her ceiling here.

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