09/24/2016 5:07PM

Mohawk: Monday 9/26 Analysis

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Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

 

PICK 5: 2/2,4,5/2,10/2,4,6,9/1,3,4,9 = $19.20

EARLY PICK 4: 2,4,6,9/1,3,4,9/9/1,2,7,9 = $64

LATE PICK 4: 1,2,7,9/1,2,4,5/5,6,7/6 = $48

MEET STATS: 364 - 1091 / $1890.70  BEST BETS: 59 - 100 / $185.90

SPOT PLAYS: 22 - 100 / $140.00

Best Bet: WHO SAID NOT TO (1st)

Spot Play: RESITA (3rd)

Race 1

(2) WHO SAID NOT TO - a $140K Lexington buy - is a full to Lost For Words and a 1/2 to good local mare Lindwood Beach Girl. If this colt - who is staked to everything - is anywhere as good as the connections seem to think he is, he should beat this group fairly easily. (4) ARDEEN had a useful opener now he picks up Drury; consider for exotics. (6) TREMENDOUS PLAY faces easier here and he will likely be put into action early this time. (8) MANY FACETS is worth a look based on the driver change alone.

Race 2

(2) GIVE EM HECK drops back down a level here which should bring a better result; slight nod. (4) NEW YORK NIGHTMARE also drops one level and he should be much more aggressively handled this time. (5) VELOCITY HEADLIGHT is another that should be tough racing at this level in what shapes up as a contentious race despite the short field. (6) SPORTS VISION will be camped at the back early but he can pass some of these in the back 1/2.

Race 3

(2) RESITA has been in races where the final 1/4 was one of the fastest and she still managed to close ground. This race does not appear to involve that same scenario and she can break out here - even racing against sophomores. (10) CORE FUSION can build off a solid debut and contend here if he can beat at least a couple of rivals off the gate. (9) WEVE HAD ENOUGH is hard to take on top, but, he can take a share here. (8) NORTHERN MAJOR was closest with Jamieson driving two starts back; consider.

Race 4

(6) SMALLTOWN TERROR paced home in 55 flat last week now gets McNair who will likely get more aggressive with him; top call. (2) BLUE CHIP SUNSHINE showed little from the outer post last time on Flamboro's 1/2-miler but check how he was racing there from inside posts; using. (4) ST LADS FLIRT is another that will benefit from post relief here; using. (9) MONSTER IN LAW could surprise here if he is sent hard off the gate by Henry which isn't out of the question.

Race 5

(3) WINDSONG LIGHTNING tracked some rapid splits closely then prevailed late last week. A similar trip could easily develop here. (4) MAC RAIDER drops, should be looking for the front early and is a big threat to pop here. (1) NEEDLECREST should benefit from the move inside and he could trip out again; consider. (9) SUNNY BEACH DAY is worth a look making his second start off a break. He could crash the exotics at a big price here.

Race 6

(9) SHOOT THE THRILL comes up tagged and gets a ton of early speed to track here. Expect him to pounce at the head of the lane, if not earlier. (5) TAURUS DU PARC goes first time for Laroque here and he will likely be dangerous on the lead. (7) TOY IS OURS stays in claimers despite coming off two solid wins. His gait issues could resurface at any time. (3) ICE O LATE should be passing many of these late based on the probable pace scenario.

Race 7

(2) ROCKABELLA has a weak win record but he gets to face many here that also are not regular winners this year and he should get a solid pace to chase; slight nod. (7) WEATHERLY can build off his win vs. easier at Kawartha and contend here. (9) JIMMYS SECRET raced tough on the rim in this class last week; using. (1) DALTON DID IT has faced the same tough winner in three straight at Flamboro. He fits here and should offer a great price.

Race 8

(4) THIS IS MY SONG made two moves last week and just missed. He may offer a good price here facing horses that raced in the Metro. I give him the edge based on recency. (2) ROCK THIS WAY and (1) BOBCAT BOUND should hold a class edge on most of these, but the time off is concerning. (5) TUXEDO BAY was hard-used last time now switches to a driver that is great at getting horses to close sharply down the lane. A switch in tactics here should bring a better result.

Race 9

(6) WALTZKING HANOVER was on good cover last week but the rapid fractions benefitted the one he provided cover to more. He can turn the tables here. (7) PAR INTENDED's current form is hard to fault. Toss him on your late Pick 4 tickets. (5) LISVINNIE is erratic, but he is fast and can endure some tough and long trips; using. (2) HIGHLAND TARTAN was used up on the pace last week. A more patient approach is likely here with the driver switch.

Race 10

(6) YOURE MY HERO should go much better here dropped into a claimer and he stands a very good chance of controlling things throughout. (5) LUMIERE was claimed back by Laroque and he does the best with him. Expect immediate results (7) PANEDICTINE is in his best form and keeps changing hands every week. He should be close here again. (8) LIGHT FOOT ROAD caught fire down the lane last week when claimed. He is another that merits Late Pick 4 consideration here. (9) STIMULUS SPENDING is one that can close from far back for a slice here.

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